The crisis that struck Europe for the first time in early spring has returned – but this time around, many feel that locking up society is too much to pay. Nevertheless, most medical and economic experts spoke to CNN to agree that, in the long run, a short lockdown is better than a constant battle to contain the epidemic.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is one of the few people trying to avoid another nationwide lockdown in England.
Senior scientific experts have advised the United Kingdom leader to impose an immediate two-week national lockdown to stop the spread of Covid-19 in September. Instead, on Monday, Johnson unveiled a limited system of coronavirus restrictions imposed locally, if necessary, and once again encouraged people to work from home.
UK Housing Minister Robert Jenrik told the BBC on Tuesday that Johnson’s government was “balancing the safety of people’s lives” by keeping people in education and employment.
But some experts believe that limited controls have little effect on the virus and do more damage to the economy over time.
“The first priority is to get the virus under control,” Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at consulting firm Oxford Economics, told CNN. “And fast, [most] Aggressive, the way you can do it is the best thing for the economy.
“The worst thing is that these bubbles are going to last a long time, that’s the most dangerous thing.” “The longer this lasts, the worse for the economy and public money.”
Goodwin said a short “circuit-breaker” down-down, as recommended by scientists advising the UK government, could shrink to 2.5% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020.
“It will have a small hit effect compared to what we have now, and it will be worth it – if it works,” he added. They take matters into their own hands. People stop coming into social contact situations. “
China shows what is possible when combined with population tracking policies intended to contain the lockdown virus. The world’s second-largest economy shut down sharply earlier this year and the government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on stimulus efforts. It was the only major world power to survive the recession this year.
But that success has proved difficult for other countries to replicate, especially in places where they do not have the same level of control over their populations as Beijing.
Johnson’s approach is by no means unique to England. The Irish government last week rejected calls by health presidents to re-impose a nationwide lockdown, despite a sharp rise in cases.
“It’s important to understand that we’ve been in a very different situation since last March,” Martin said in October. “Businesses are improving and vital health care services are still in disarray. Serious sanctions will now have a very detrimental effect on those services and businesses that may not be able to recover.”
But just across the border, Northern Ireland’s executives have adopted a much more aggressive strategy. First Minister Arlene Foster announced Wednesday that schools, pubs and restaurants will be closed for four weeks in an effort to tackle spiking cases. Wales First Prime Minister Mark Dreckford told UK’s Sky News that the country was also considering a short national lockdown.
In France, many working in the hospitality industry fear that another lockdown will be on the way.
The area is under such pressure that authorities have allowed restaurants to remain open in Paris and reopen in the city of Marseille, despite both areas being a “maximum alert” area, there is a higher Covid-19 case rate. Bars and cafes are closed in both cities.
“We need to stop thinking that there is a conflict between the economy and public health,” Catherine Hill, a renowned French epidemiologist, told CNN.
“If we solve the coronavirus crisis, then we solve the economic crisis. In China, they contained the epidemic and the economy returned. The goal is simple: to get rid of the virus, so that life is back on track.”
French Prime Minister Jean Castex indicated this week that more sanctions are on the way. “We are taking action based on the epidemic situation,” he told news channel France Info on October 12.
“Given the situation we see in our hospitals, there is no exclusion.”
Jonathan Portis, a professor of economics at King’s College London, said “a successful strategy to stem the virus is the best thing for the economy” even though it means the government needs to borrow more to raise funds to help businesses and households.
“We have no problem borrowing money [needed]”Portes said.” There are no affordable limits. “The affordability of the second lockdown is not one of the top five economic problems facing the UK right now.”
Robert West, a professor of health psychology at University College London, said future national lockdowns in the UK are likely to increase the pace of economic growth, regardless of ongoing concerns.
But he says the government should use the time spent in lockdown to improve systems that could help control the virus once restrictions are lifted.
“It would be a complete waste of time if we locked up without developing a test and trace system,” he told CNN.
Four UK nations have testing and trace systems but they have been criticized in recent months for administrative errors, delays and backlogs. The government has defended the systems.
“Since its inception, NHS tests and traces have contacted 700,000 people who may have inadvertently spread the coronavirus and asked to be isolated,” a spokesman for the Department of Health and Social Care told CNN. .
Whether to go down or not, the fate of economics depends on the ability of governments to control the virus as winter approaches.
Amy Cassidy of CNN contributed to this report.