Place competing people in a competitive environment and they trade historically competitively.
That’s why one AL assistant GM, when asked if he thought there would be a lot of action before Aug. 31, 4 p.m., “I think that will be. Teams have holes, and d ‘ “You still have the expectation that you will fill those gaps and have the best team possible for the playoffs or playoff run.”
However, I have asked that question of 10 executives who will be involved in decision making before deadline. And you just read the lonely offer that expects a lot of action.
To understand the position of the other nine athletes, think of the deadline as the Olympic men’s 110-meter hurdles. Just then 42 inches high, the hard ones will now be 50 inches. And rather than 110 meters, the race is 150 meters. And rather than 10 obstacles, there are 15.
It’s the familiar warped – and remember that this year’s Summer Olympics were canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The deadline was pushed back a month, not canceled, but there are certainly many more, um, obstacles. Think of the scene in “Bull Durham,” when a mound collects and Crash Davis has to explain to the upcoming pitching coach why the delay. Now, the pitcher’s eyelids are disturbed and he is being humiliated by having his father in the crowd, and they need a live cock to take the curse from the hand of the first baseman, and no one knows what Millie and Jimmy need to get in for a wedding. The character Kevin Costner sums up: ‘We have a lot to do with [bleep]. ”
That’s what I thought when an NL assistant GM texted me why there would not be a lot of trading activity: ‘All incentives are muddied or erased. Buyers will have to price in cancellation odds, plus the changes brought about by the new playoff format. Plus there is a chance that a veteran player may turn down if asked to change landscape at this point. Sellers of elite talent have the same floor [draft-pick compensation]. Sa [trade] matchups are just less likely. Plus a whole team of teams that were set on buyers / sellers during 162 [games] is perhaps not in the same place now. ”
Let’s look at these obstacles:
– Open to humanity. Players are already being asked to sacrifice a lot. Most are enduring monastic life hermetically sealed with teammates and families. Now imagine someone who has been doing this since the beginning of July that they need to join a new team in a new city with new teammates and decide if they need to relocate a family as well. Or as one AL chief of staff said, “Not a conversation I want to have.” Will some teams decide that the gains are not enough to ask someone to switch teams in the midst of a pandemic?
– Oh, yes, the pandemic. More than 20 players have been ruled out this season. What security does an acquisition team have that the player who just throws up prospects will not even leave? The Cardinals and Marlins are destroyed by COVID-19, what if a team gets a player and suddenly they do not even play? Or what if the virus infects the game so badly that Commissioner Rob Manfred has to end the season?
More executives have grown optimistic that one season will be complete as protocols and routines have improved and most teams have prevented the virus. However, normal factors, such as a player being injured after an injury, can cool some teams. Add these other unique factors for 2020 and it gets killer.
Teams can be player-to-be-appointed-later contingency trades as hedge. For example, you get Prospect 1 better when the season is playing and Prospect 2 if not. However, a player who will be named later may not be on an active roster in the Premier League until he is appointed. The trade must be completed within six months, so no chance of watching the prospect game even in the spring training next year to determine which one you want. And if both sides dispute it, the automatic settlement is cash that is no more than $ 100,000. That it can be done, but there must be a lot of trust between the trading clubs beyond all other factors.
– And how would you determine which perspectives you want? No small league matches will be played this year. To facilitate trades, MLB suggested that teams get video and some tracking data – such as spin speed and download speed of games / workouts on satellite websites. But that is apparently not under normal game conditions.
“There are risks in trading assets for a player that you have very little current info on,” said an AL assistant GM.
One top NL executive pooh-poohed the saying that every team has a lot of scouting information about a player, and one that you liked when you saw them in March before the game ended, will still hold you, as long as the medications prove it. But this executive argument:
– “It was harder than ever to trade perspectives, now it will be much harder.” The reason: There is no attendance-related income this year. There may be the same as significant reduction from normal next year. Which led the executive to say, “Most of us are preparing as if we will be told to cut wages next year, so trade away players who might come up next year and help those close to the minimum, that would hurt like never before. “
It also means it’s harder to add payroll, so potentially available players who have big contracts for 2021 – like Baltimore starter Alex Cobb or San Francisco starter Johnny Cueto – will be hard-pressed to move unless the sellers are willing to eat a substantial portion of that. Which maybe they will, knowing they need to cut payroll where they can.
– But who are these sellers? With 16 teams making the playoffs, that leads many clubs to think they are in play in the coming weeks, even below .500. And just how motivated will buyers be? The first round will be more of a crapshoot than ever as a best-of-three, probably played for no fans and on neutral sides. That, as one NL head of baseball operations said, ‘There is less incentive to go alone [to try to win a division] if you’re one of the 3-4 best clubs. ‘
– So, who could move this brand despite the barriers? A NL staffer said: “If there is a club with a shot that has not been in the post season for a while, I could see them pushing to make it bigger.” That would be clubs like the Padres, Reds and White Sox – combined 30 years without the playoffs.
The Red Sox and Astros hired former Rays executives to direct their baseball operations, in part, to try to deal with reduced farm systems and raised payrolls to win the World Series. That these could be motivated sellers. But players who make money – like Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi and JD Martinez – will be hard to trade. Same for Zack Greinke of Houston and George Springer, who comes on free agency with Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel. Red Sox closer Brandon Workman has been described as one of the most likely players to be treated because he is good and pitching is even more likely to be the focus with how staff are challenged this year. But Workman is also a free agent after the season who will not receive a qualifying offer and only has $ 390,000 left after August 31st.
The most anticipated trade was one with a surplus on one side – for example, the Yankees trading a Miguel Andujar or Clint Frazier with their abundance of bats – to a team that can have a player who does not make much money in an area of abundance. But that’s a tough matchup to happen. An AL-GM replied that the competing people are all making trusted phone calls before the August 31 deadline, but, “Anyone who makes big money above this season I think is difficult [to trade]. That my more likely only cheap players expire as contracts is my guess. ”
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