Understanding the solar cycle is important because the space atmosphere caused by the sun – explosions such as solar flares and coronal mass ejection events – can affect power grids, satellites, GPS, airlines, rockets and astronauts into space.
And we’ve got a little more information about how solar activity can affect us.
The official launch of the new Solar Cycle 25, Solar Cycle 25, took place in December 2019, according to an announcement made on Tuesday by the Solar Cycle 25 forecast panel of international experts. It can take up to 10 months to calculate when a new cycle begins, as the sun is very variable, which is why it was announced on Tuesday.
According to forecasts, the Solar Cycle 25 will be similar to what we have experienced over the last 11 years. The next solar maximum, when the sun is experiencing peak activity, is forecast to occur in July 2025. During that time, it is possible for solar flares or other explosions to disrupt communications on Earth.
Solar Cycle 24 was the fourth smallest cycle on record and the weakest in 100 years, Lisa Opton, co-chair of the Space Systems Research Corporation’s Solar Cycle 25 prediction panel and solar physicist, told a news conference Tuesday.
While the Solar Cycle 24 was below average, it was not without risk. In July 2012, an epic hurricane erupted from the sun, but missed colliding with the earth.
“Just because it’s an average solar cycle, doesn’t mean there’s no risk of extreme space weather,” said Dr. BG Bisecker, co-chair of the NOAA’s Space Weather Forecast Center panel and a solar physicist. “The effect of the sun on our daily lives is real and it is. (We) keep employees 24/7, 365 days a year because the sun is always able to give us something to predict.”
BSCare compared it to the hurricane season. Even if many hurricanes do not land, there is little that can be done Really important, which is why space weather forecasts are so important.
Sunspots, which are black spots on the sun, help scientists track the sun’s activity. It is the site of explosive flares and ejection events that release light, solar material and release into space.
During the peak of solar activity in the last cycle, 120 sunspots were tracked. Approximately 115 sunspots are forecast for the peak of this new cycle. In comparison, an above average active cycle contains more than 200 sunspots.
“We keep a detailed record of some small sunspots marking the beginning and emergence of a new cycle,” said Frederick Clatt, forecasting panelist and director of the World Data Center for Sunspot Index and Long-Term Solar Observations at the Royal Observatory. Belgium in Brussels. “These are the vague heralds of the future giant solar fireworks. Only by tracking the general trend over several months can we determine the tipping point between the two cycles.”
The more scientists learn about the solar cycle, the better it is to predict when these events will occur.
During the solar cycle, the sun will move from a quiet period to a very intense and active one. This activity can be detected by calculating the sunspots on the sun and how many appear over time. During the peak of this activity, the sun’s magnetic poles flip. Then, the sun will rise quietly again during the solar minimum. And this happens after about 11 years.
Over the past two and a half years, the sun has been quiet with barely paying attention to its surface.
The solar minimum came in December 2019. During this period, the sun is still active, but it is quieter and has less sunshine. Since then, the activity of the sun has gradually increased. New forecasts suggest solar activity will peak in July 2025.
A total solar eclipse will cross North America in April 2024, giving scientists the opportunity to observe solar activity such as solar explosions or sunspots during the event.
“We hope that an eclipse closer to the Sun’s maximum will not only show us an awe-inspiring corona, but also give some big, interesting sunspots on the Sun’s face to learn about living within the atmosphere of active stars and space. The weather creates it,” Valentin Martinez Pilate, director of the Solar Observatory, said in a statement.
Now that we are passing the minimum, scientists predict that the activity of the sun will increase in the coming months and years on July 2025.
“When we get out of the solar minimum and get closer to the maximum of cycle 25, it’s important to remember that solar activity never stops; it changes as the pendulum swings,” said Leica Guhauk, a solar scientist at the Department of Heliophysics at NASA headquarters in Washington. Was. Statement.
Preparing for sun activity
Although the panels received maximum wrong times during the last cycle, they improved their forecasting methods, Bisecker said.
“We regarded the sun as a large ball of gas, but the hemisphere, south and north, behaved independently,” he said. “During the last solar cycle, they were out of phase with each other more than before, which ruined our forecast.”
But observation of magnetic fields in the Sun’s polar regions provides consistently excellent forecasts, he said.
“There’s no bad weather, just bad preparation,” said Jack Bleacher, chief scientist at NASA’s Directorate of Human Research and Mission Operations at the agency’s headquarters. “Space weather is what it is – our job is to prepare.”
Experts said the space meteorological research center is shifting from a research center to a more national operational priority in several agencies, including NASA, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Homeland Security, the Federal Aviation Administration and many others.
This allows for better planning, preparedness and protection from the weather hazards of the space.
Agency NOAA shares space weather forecasts from its Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado and has satellites that monitor space weather in real time. It has a hotline with electrical grid tors operators to warn, so they can prepare and continue power, Bisecker said.
And NASA is researching the atmosphere near Earth, which will help improve space weather forecasts.
In addition to securing the technology we rely on, space weather forecasts will become increasingly important for space astronauts.
The NASA Artemis program seeks to send humans out of low-Earth orbit, where the International Space Station resides and will return to the moon and Mars in the future.
The gateway, an outpost that will orbit the moon and land astronauts on the moon, will conduct research to study the spacecraft and radiation that astronauts and hardware will experience when they return to the moon. NASA scientists can also use the gateway Astronauts, like food and pharmaceuticals, rely on astronauts to test, to see how space weather can affect their efficiency, Bleacher said.
Like the preparation of weather events on Earth, space weather expectations allow for better preparation on Earth. Space agencies are working closely with agencies to ensure that weather patterns are similar.
“Just as NOAA’s National Weather Service makes us a weather-ready nation, the vehicle we are driving is a space-ready nation,” said Elsaid Talat, NOAA’s Satellite and Information Services Planning and Analysis Office Fees, projects director. In Silver Spring, Maryland.
These include NOAA’s Space Weather Follow-LN L-1 Observatory, which is expected to launch in 2024 ahead of the predicted peak of the Solar Cycle 25.
Talat said this is an attempt to include 24 agencies in the government, and has changed the climate of space from a research perspective to working knowledge.
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