LONDON – For all the challenges in controlling the spread of the coronavirus, Europe’s initial strategy was relatively simple: almost universal, strictly enforced lockdowns.
It finally worked. And in the two months since most countries opened, improved tests and traces have largely kept new outbreaks in check. With basic rules about wearing masks and social distance, life has been able to cope with some semblance of normality.
But in recent days, France, Germany and Italy have experienced their highest daily business counts since the spring, and Spain finds itself in the midst of a major outbreak. Government services and public health officials are warning that the continent is entering a new phase in the pandemic.
There is not the widespread chaos and general sense of crisis to be seen in March and April. And newly discovered infections per 100,000 people in Europe are still about one-fifth the number in the United States in the last week, according to a New York Times database.
But there are growing concerns that with the summer time of the journey to the end, the virus could find a new foothold as people move their lives indoors and the fall flu season begins.
With countries using a variety of strategies – and with rules that often change abruptly and guidance varying from nation to nation – it remains to be seen what tactics will prove both enforceable and effective.
The virus is also spreading across a landscape that has changed extensively from what it found in the spring, with many city centers still largely empty of office workers and a waiting public.
The increase in cases in Europe, as in many other parts of the world, is being driven by young people. The proportion of people aged 15 to 24 who are infected in Europe has risen from about 4.5 percent to 15 percent in the last five months, according to the World Health Organization.
Dr Hans Kluge, the director for Europe, said on Thursday that he was “very concerned” that people under the age of 24 regularly appeared in new cases.
“Low risk does not mean risk,” he said. “No one is irreplaceable, and if you don’t die from Covid, it can hang on to your body like a tornado with a long tail.”
This time around, European leaders have largely avoided imposing widespread lockdowns, relying instead on measures such as targeted restrictions on movement at hot spots, increased mask requirements and public health education campaigns.
Dr Kluge said that strategy can work.
“Between the basic measures at the national level and extra-targeted measures, we are in a much better position to eliminate localized viral outbreaks,” he said. “We can manage the virus and run the economy and the education system.”
In France, President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out another national lockdown, instead opting for “highly localized strategies.”
“We can not stop the country because the collateral damage of confinement is a lot,” he told Paris Match this week, adding that “zero risk never exists in a society.”
A growing number of French cities have made wearing masks mandatory in crowded streets and markets, and on Thursday the southern cities of Nice and Toulouse became the first to extend the rule to all open areas.
But as the number of new infections increases daily – on Thursday there were almost 4,800 new infections, a figure not reached since April – some are wondering whether the government is getting too lax.
Health Minister Olivier Véran acknowledged Friday that the spread of the virus was “accelerating”, but said the situation would remain under control as long as people observed social distance and hygiene measures.
“We are several days away from returning from vacation,” Mr Véran said, warning that “people will return to their lives” in places like offices and schools.
“The virus should not spread from younger people to older people,” he added.
However, a rise in cases in Spain illustrates the difficulties of an ad hoc approach to virus suppression.
Since the lifting of a state of emergency in June, 17 regional governments in the country have directed their own efforts. That split Spain into a mosaic of different rules, many of which had to be changed almost immediately once hundreds of local outbreaks were identified.
Countries such as Britain have now introduced self-quarantine rules on travelers coming from Spain, leaving Spain hoping for a strong recovery from summer tourism. Nightclubs were reopened within weeks of opening, and some Spanish regions have recently moved on, including banning smoking in public areas.
The back-and-forth is also linked to uncertainty about whether regions are doing enough testing and tracking of infections. In the Madrid region, unions representing schoolmasters voted Wednesday to strike in September as classes open, in protest of what they consider to be flawed regional government security guarantees.
“No one should be in doubt,” said Drs. Fernando Simón, the director of the Health Center for Health in Spain, on Thursday. “Things are not going well.”
The approach in Britain, which has the highest rate of excessive deaths in Europe during the pandemic, has a similarly disturbed feel, with sudden rule changes often confusing the public.
The coronavirus breaks out>
Frequently Asked Questions
Updated August 17, 2020
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Why does standing six feet apart help others?
- The coronavirus spreads primarily by drips from your mouth and nose, especially when you cough or sneeze. The CDC, one of the organizations using this measure, bases its six-foot recommendation on the idea that most large droplets that expel people when they cough or sneeze fall within six feet to the ground. But six feet has never been a magic number that guarantees complete protection. Noses, for example, can launch drops much farther than six feet, according to a recent study. It’s a rule of thumb: you need to be the safest to stand six feet apart, especially when it’s windy. But always wear a mask, even if you think you are far enough apart.
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I have antibodies. Am I immune now?
- At the moment, that probably seems like at least several months. There have been horrific accounts of people suffering from what appears to be a second bolt of Covid-19. But experts say these patients may have a prolonged course of infection, with the virus taking a slow toll weeks to months after initial exposure. People infected with the coronavirus typically produce immune molecules called antibodies, which are protective proteins made in response to an infection. These antibodies may only last two to three months in the body, which may seem worrying, but that is perfectly normal after an acute infection progresses, said Dr. Michael Mina, an immunologist at Harvard University. It could possibly get the coronavirus back up, but it is highly unlikely that it would be possible in a short window of time from initial infection or the second time safe.
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I am a small business owner. Can I get relief?
- The incentive bills introduced in March provide assistance to the millions of American small businesses. Those eligible for support are non-profit companies and organizations with less than 500 workers, including sole proprietorships, independent contractors and freelancers. Some larger companies in some sectors are also eligible. The assistance provided, which is managed by the Small Business Administration, includes the Paycheck Protection Program and the Economic Damage Disaster Program. But many people have not seen payments yet. Even those who have received help are confused: the rules are draconian, and some are stuck on money they do not know how to use. Many small business owners get less than they expected or heard nothing at all.
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What are my rights if I am worried about returning to work?
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What will school look like in September?
- It is unlikely that many schools will return to a regular schedule this fall, requiring the grinding of online learning, easy childcare and stunted workdays to continue. The two largest public school districts of California – Los Angeles and San Diego – said on July 13 that instruction will be remote only in the fall, citing concerns that growing coronavirus infections in their areas pose too great a risk to students and teachers. Together, the two districts enroll about 825,000 students. They are the largest in the country to date to abandon plans for even a partial physical return to classes when they reopen in August. For other districts, the solution will not be an all-or-nothing approach. Many systems, including the nation’s largest, New York City, are creating hybrid plans that include some days attending classrooms and other days online. There is no national policy yet, so check regularly with your municipal school system to see what is happening in your municipality.
In Birmingham, residents are facing the return of the “dark days” of lockdown, a local official said, after a rise in new cases was reported. In the North of England, including around Manchester, people from different households are no longer able to meet.
But the country’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, told the BBC that workers should return to their offices. And the government is funding an initiative to get people back into restaurants, covering part of the cost of some meals.
Authorities are also demanding 14 days of self-quarantine for travelers coming from Austria, Croatia, France and the Netherlands, and have warned that more countries could be added.
In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel has promised to tackle the spread of the virus without closing national borders, despite an increase in daily infections that have not been experienced since the end of April. She said on Thursday that the European Union needed to be united and that it “would have to act even more Europeanly” to stop the virus.
“I do not think we will just close the borders again,” she said. “Politically, we want to avoid that at all costs.”
About 40 percent of recent new infections in Germany have been brought back by returning holidaymakers, according to the government.
The country’s foreign ministry has warned against traveling to several popular destinations, including most of Spain and parts of Croatia. But returning travelers can now be tested for free at German airports.
And even if political leaders want to file lockdowns again, there are indications that the public would not be so satisfied a second time.
This month, tens of thousands of people in Berlin took part in demonstrations against coronavirus restrictions. In the Netherlands, dozens of protesters from a group claiming the virus was a government hut clashed with police in The Hague on Thursday, an extreme example of growing tensions over the Dutch government’s handling of the pandemic.
Face masks, now common in much of Europe, have been a subject of confusion in the Netherlands, where the head of the National Institute of Public Health, Jaap van Dissel, said masks “provide false protection.”
Although masks are now mandatory on public transport, the Dutch government says it is more important for people to stay six feet apart in all situations. It has also encouraged people to have no more than six guests in their homes.
Public warning with regulation has been accused of an uptick of cases in Belgium.
As the summer progressed, many people there stopped wearing masks in the shops, and the police had to break up partying students on large squares in Brussels.
When the infection burial went up, politicians published more restrictions and Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès set broad requirements for wearing masks.
“The future will depend on everyone’s behavior,” she said. “These are not suggestions, but orders.”
Report was contributed by Allison McCann, Elian Peltier and Kaly Soto from London; Raphael Minder from Madrid; Christopher F. Schuetze of Berlin; Thomas Erdbrink from Amsterdam; Elisabetta Povoledo of Rome; Aurelien Breeden from Paris; and Julia Echikson from Brussels.
