Ethiopia fills mega dam that Egypt calls an “existential” threat

Ethiopia has rejected reports that it is filling a massive reservoir behind a new hydroelectric dam, as the colossal infrastructure project strains ties between three African nations that depend on the Nile River for water. Egypt has previously threatened to go to war over the dam

Nearly 10 years of negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over the construction of the Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia (GERD) have failed to resolve the conflict. Recent satellite images from the European Space Agency show that the water fills up the reservoir behind the dam, but Ethiopian officials insist it is just “natural accumulation” of the rain, not the start of filling operations.

All three nations share water from the Blue Nile, one of the two tributaries of the Nile River. Sudan and Egypt insist that an agreement must be reached on how Ethiopia will operate the new dam before the reservoir fills up.

Countries have disagreed since 2011, when Ethiopia began building the dam, at an estimated cost of $ 4 billion, across the Blue Nile. The tributary originates from the highlands of Ethiopia, flowing north through the country and then through Sudan before finally crossing into Egypt and joining the Nile on the way to the Mediterranean.

The dam is reportedly 70% complete, but Ethiopia has long said it intended to fill the reservoir during the summer, during the rainy season, while work on the dam continued.

“Certificate of poverty”

“The construction of the dam and the filling of the water go hand in hand,” Ethiopia’s Water Minister Seleshi Bekele said in televised comments this week. “The filling of the dam does not need to wait until its completion.” He later told reporters that as the rains fall, “it is an ideal time to fill the dam … This is well known to all involved. [Egypt] I know. They have to explain it to their people. “

The World Bank classifies Ethiopia’s economy as one of the fastest growing in the world, but it is also one of the most energy-deficient countries on the planet. More than half of its 110 million people do not have access to electricity.

“It is a source of national pride, an iconic achievement of my generation,” Omar Redi, an Ethiopian political analyst, told CBS News. “The dam is considered Ethiopia’s certificate of escape from poverty, hence the great importance that the people and the government attach to it.”

At the width of Manhattan’s Brooklyn Bridge and 50 stories high, the dam’s 16 turbines are expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity; Enough to meet not only Ethiopia’s needs, but also excess power to sell cheaply to the impoverished neighbor to the north of the country, Sudan.

Sudan, while excited about the potential new energy supply, also has serious concerns that Ethiopia unilaterally controls the flow of the Blue Nile, using a dam less than 10 miles from its shared border.

Hundreds of miles below, however, Egypt, with an area and population similar to Ethiopia, is dead against the new infrastructure project.

“Existential” threat

The Nile has remained the lifeline of Egypt’s civilizations since ancient times. The country’s 102 million inhabitants still depend almost entirely on the river to support life in the arid landscape.

Addressing the United Nations Security Council, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called the dam “a threat of potentially existential proportions.” He promised that Egypt “will defend and protect the vital interests of its people,” adding that “survival is not a matter of choice, but an imperative of nature.”

Addressing the troops last month, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi did not specifically mention Ethiopia or the dam, but noted that the Egyptian army was ready to defend national security, as it told Air Force personnel that ” be ready for any mission within our borders. ” and, if necessary, outside the borders “.

Moustafa El Gendi, the self-proclaimed “Son of the Nile”, is a member of The Parliament of Egypt that is part of its African Affairs committee.

“The Nile River for us is our only source of life,” said El Gendi, who built a successful river cruise business on the Nile.

He first saw the impending dam project as a threat during the 2011 “Arab Spring” uprising that ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. He led an Egyptian “public diplomacy” delegation to Ethiopia at the time, calling on the government there to delay construction until the tumult in Egypt ended and his country “stood up again.”

Gendi told CBS News that his delegation wanted to listen to outside engineering consultants assuring their country, “that this dam is not going to kill the Egyptians. I want to hear this from a specialist, not a politician.”

“I don’t want politicians to make promises to me,” El Gendi said. “I trust science. This is a dam. This is an engineering project.”

“Much water”

At least one expert is not convinced that Egypt faces an “existential” threat, at least in the short term.

Dr. Kevin Wheeler, a researcher at the Institute for Environmental Change at Oxford University in Great Britain, has been following negotiations on the GERD project since 2012. He told CBS News that technical problems between the parties have already been resolved in big measure.

“I would say this year, there really is no concern [water] shortage. There is a lot of water stored in Egypt, “said Wheeler.” The following years would be more worrying if there is a drought or a prolonged drought in the coming years. That could be cause for concern. “

“Technically, there are very strong solutions, and ultimately, if there is an agreement, the GERD can provide a safety net during times of drought for Egypt,” he added.

But with so much mistrust between the two sides, Wheeler acknowledged that an agreement has yet to be reached and one, “that’s verifiable and implementable.”

The main trouble spot has been Egypt and Sudan pressing for a deal that would be binding on Ethiopia, effectively forcing it to guarantee a certain flow downstream through the new dam. Ethiopian officials have so far refused to make that concession.