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Reuters
YVES HERMAN
The Swedish newspaper “Aftonbladet” said Sweden’s experience in fighting the outbreak of the Corona virus is the most effective, according to a scientific report from “Harvard” University that demonstrates the success of the country’s health strategy.
And according to the Swedish newspaper “Aftonbladet”, this report is consistent with Sweden’s strategy to treat the infection, despite being the subject of much criticism worldwide for being different from what most countries have adopted strict measures to close the company.
According to the newspaper, a new report from Harvard University revealed that countries that take strict measures to combat Corona will be exposed to a dangerous wave of illness in the fall and winter, saying that “the closure of society is the worst thing to be done. can do”.
The report concluded that “closing the community now is the worst thing to do, and even worse than not taking action,” but noted that without drugs or vaccines against the virus, social separation is the first weapon to control the spread of the infection.
The report, written by 4 epidemiologists and immunologists, examined the effect of community closure on the long-term spread of the infection, and academics focused on two main points: First: What happens if one person submits the request two weeks after the epidemic spreads socially for a period of 4, 8, 12 or 20 weeks? And the second: the extent to which the infection spread during these periods decreased to 0 percent, 20, 40, or 60 percent.
The results clearly showed that the best strategy is a 20-week long phase, during which the infection decreases by 20-40 percent. In this case, the number of people infected at the same time is much less, and the number of people infected decreases throughout the epidemic.
The researchers explained that “pressure through strict measures to reduce the spread of infection by 60 percent, during the early stages of the epidemic, will reduce the number of patients now, but can lead to the risk of a second huge wave of spread. of disease in the fall and winter, because the pressure was so effective that immunity did not build up among the Near Population. “
The scientists added that “the new wave will be associated with a greater number of infected people and a greater risk for health care, and the pressure exerted by the state at the beginning of the disease will be worse than if no action were taken.” Noting that “the peak of the disease will be associated with the flu season, which increases things.” Worse. “
The researchers’ assumption was based on a simple principle that “infection cannot be stopped,” while they set the goal of “ensuring that the number of injured does not exceed the ability of medical care to absorb” and therefore , the most successful strategy according to the mathematical model is “activating social divergence when the number of injuries increases to a certain extent, and the restrictions are reduced when the number of victims decreases.
By contrast, the researchers noted that it is difficult to determine the time required to adjust or reduce restrictions, since it takes approximately three weeks between taking action and reducing the number of patients needing medical attention.
If the strategy is successful, the researchers believe that the need for social separation will decrease over time, with increasing numbers of people recovering, becoming immune, and not contributing to the spread of infection.
The Swedish newspaper concluded, citing the report, that researchers said the slow spread of the infection in the summer will be of great importance if it happens, but the matter is still unresolved for the new virus, adding that the epidemic may continue until July 2022, but it is possible to end social divergence entirely. During the first half of 2021, indicating that a vaccine can quickly increase immunity and reduce the need for social space, but no one believes that the vaccine will be available before 12-18 months, at best.
Source: alkompis.se
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