[ad_1]
11:02 pm
Sunday 15 November 2020
Books – Muhammad Safwat:
Since Nobel Peace Prize winner Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, Ethiopia has witnessed several changes, perhaps the most prominent of which is the conclusion of a peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea. with which he fought a bloody war two decades ago.
Ethiopia was in a state of flux, its central authority was diminishing, its borders were growing and contracting, and the regions of the periphery enjoyed some independence.
But the sweeping reforms he has pushed for have marginalized Tigrayans from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, who have long dominated the country’s political scene. In recent weeks, tensions between the front and the federal government have risen dangerously.
The site “African Agents” says that the current crisis is not emerging, as its roots are deep and its consequences will determine the future of the country, noting that the collapse of the country is unlikely, but warned of the continuation of violence that could last long time.
Historical overview
Throughout the 20th century, Ethiopia fought and fought for a better future, from resisting the imperial ambitions of Italy, through the fall of Emperor Haile Selassie, to overthrowing the Coordinating Committee of the Armed Forces, Police and Army that ruled the country after Hela, known as “Derg”.
After its overthrow in 1987, Tigray became a major player in the country, and the Eritrea People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) and the TPLF led the armed struggle, the two most effective fighting forces in the country.
Eritrea’s reward for victory was independence. The TPL bond was a majority stake in the postwar government.
After that, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front was established, led by the leader of the Tigray Front, giving the region tight control over the security apparatus of the new government at the time.
African Agents explains that stability in the country depends on the success of the Ethiopian EPRDF to face economic challenges and prevent the formation of future armed groups, and the second is to maintain the political balance between the different ethnic parties that make up the EPRDF.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF parties won 95% of the vote, but the failure to transition to democracy generated resentment against the EPRDF.
In 2012, when the Ethiopian prime minister and the leader of the Front, Meles Zenawi, died, the appointment of Hailemariam Desalegn, from the south of the country, as prime minister failed to restore the party’s credibility, and popular unrest broke out in several regions, especially among Oromia’s largest ethnic group, until it reached its most severe point in 2018. The EPRDF soon replaced Helly Maryam with Abi Ahmed, the first Oromo person to be appointed prime minister.
Abby Policy
It replaced Abiy Ahmed, the EPRDF, which had secured a regional balance, with the Party of Prosperity or Prosperity, and implemented real political and economic reforms and expanded freedoms, and released political detainees, and the Tigrayans soon found themselves far away. of positions of influence.
Abe’s policy prompted Tigray leaders to return to the region and discuss how to respond, especially after he postponed elections in the region, with the Corona pandemic accusations, but they insisted on maintaining it, and then mobilized military units. who are still an essential part of the Ethiopian army.
According to Abe, Tigray’s challenge is seen as an affirmation of the centralization of power and the prevention of the rise of separatist groups, which are grounds for declaring war.
Tigray Territory
It is inhabited by about 6 million people and is located in the northeast of the country, which is a harsh mountainous region, whose inhabitants will fight fiercely, while Abe enjoys the advantage of the air force and a northern ally, which is Eritrea.
The site believes that the region is not fighting for secession, at least so far, but it seeks to restore its position and change the regime and not independence, and therefore this has become a direct struggle for power, not by state control, but by the type of state Ethiopia should be in and balance. Among its components.
Impact agents
The prospect of reaching a solution in the region is grim, as is the military solution, but there are two factors that affect the outcome, namely events in other parts of Ethiopia and the role and influence of neighboring countries.
According to the site, Abe’s decision stems from his fear that unrest will spread to other regions, and he is the person Ethiopians have pinned their hopes on for change, and it is still unclear how regional interests can make your concerns known in Addis Ababa or how an internal debate could take place within the party. Governor, Abe weakened the centralization in the country by concentrating power in his hands
Who are your allies?
The Amhar are the most benefited ethnic groups so far, especially after the TPLF’s withdrawal from Abiy Ahmed’s coalition, but it made the situation in Oromia more dangerous and unpredictable.
The countries of the Horn of Africa are concerned about the instability in Ethiopia, especially after the end of decades of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, for fear of a new war.
Eritrea is coming, an tacit or active supporter of Abe’s efforts to crush Tigray, meaning the region will be cut off from external supplies if its communications with Sudan or Djibouti are cut off. Apart from Eritrea, the other regional leaders do not want to side with either side and promote a negotiated solution. Hence the efforts of the Ethiopian army to secure the Sudanese borders from which thousands of refugees are fleeing.
The Intergovernmental Authority for Development “IGAD” is an ally of Abe, but remains without apparent influence, and if the African Union steps in to end the conflict, Abe will have a hard time ignoring his neighbors if they speak with one voice.
The site indicates the possibility that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates further the negotiations, especially since they provided special support to Abe at the level of financial support, and there is also the concern of Saudi Arabia about the flow of migrants through the Red Sea. .
Likewise, the international community has no interest in the outbreak of a civil war, as China has large investments in the country, and there is an international need for Ethiopia to succeed in moving towards economic and political progress to contribute to the stability of the country. the region.
Solve the crisis
The site says that at this stage the results look bad, and the solution is always in those crises, the neutral part, but it is difficult to group heads by applying “zoom”, so those opportunities vanish.
And he claims that the African Union needs the support of the United States, the European Union, China, the Gulf states and Ethiopia’s neighbors to persuade Abe and the Tigris to stop the fighting and start negotiations.
He believes that the solution lies in the feeling of all regions and ethnic groups in the country that they have the same influence on centralization through the federal system, and that they feel that their problems can be addressed, and without at least starting a discussion about With this solution, the Horn of Africa will face a new and intractable conflict that threatens to destabilize the region.
