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Following the intensification of the security operation in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, whose inhabitants are calling for the country’s secession, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed left on Monday to reassure Ethiopians that there are no fears that the country will secede. slide into chaos, indicating that police operations will end soon, which increased. Fears of mounting tension, the outbreak of civil war and the division of the country into states.
The Ethiopian prime minister ignored calls from the United Nations to negotiate with local leaders in the region, which is home to an ethnic group that had led the ruling coalition for decades until Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, and decided to bomb targets in the border region with Sudan and Eritrea, during which at least six were killed and dozens wounded.
Expressive
The events were further aggravated when the prime minister appointed new commanders for the army, intelligence and federal police, and a new foreign minister, changes that analysts say have led to close allies in high positions with the escalation. of the conflict.
Conflict front
In the midst of all this, where is the Renaissance Dam, which is witnessing differences between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand, and Ethiopia on the other, because of these riots? And will these events affect the other file in which Addis Ababa opens a front for a prolonged conflict with Egypt and Sudan? Will you continue your negotiations on this dossier armed with your constant and continuing stubbornness throughout those years, or will the internal turmoil lead to Ethiopia easing tensions with Egypt and Sudan, calming things down and negotiating positively to resolve this dossier so that you can focus on containing your inner problems?
From the Tigray region of Ethiopia (“Archives”)
To answer these questions, Dr. Sahar Mohamed Ghorab, professor of anthropology at the University of Cairo and a researcher specializing in ethnology in Ethiopia, told Al-Arabiya.net that in Ethiopia there are several regions and ethnicities that should be considered in Please detail before answering the questions about the Renaissance Dam to understand the nature of the situation there and the nature of the conflict. Adding that Ethiopia is made up of 9 federal regions, which are Tigray, Amhara, Beni Shangol Qums, Urmu and Ogaden, which are in dispute with Somalia and occupied by Ethiopia in 1948, and then Hariri, which has an Islamic character, Kampala and Deira Dawa.
Ethnic groups
He added that the Ormu is the largest ethnic group in the country, occupying a large area from Ethiopia to the Kenyan border, and more than 24 sub-groups fall under its banner, and control most of the positions, including the current Ethiopian prime minister. Abi Ahmed, while the roots of the Afar and Tigray regions extend to Eritrea and are a minority, while the roots of the Ogaden region extend to Somalia.
Grab says that the Tigray region, although it was of the minority, is the most powerful and armored, and former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi descended from it, and left office to be taken over by Abi Ahmed, who belongs to Ormu, and the region has an army and a front called the Tigray Liberation Front, and they were behind the overthrow of the former Emperor of Ethiopia. Haile Selassie, and there is a great conflict between them and the Amhara.
From the Renaissance Dam negotiations
He added that each region has a liberation front and an army, and they all came together to overthrow the emperor, and after Zenawi Mehlis came to power, he tried to break all the liberation fronts in all regions, withdraw weapons from them. , and it succeeded in some regions and failed in others, as each region waits for the opportunity for autonomy when possible. The circumstances are like this, which is what Abiy Ahmed, the current Prime Minister, fears, because with the independence of each region, Ethiopia will fragment, and with its fragmentation into independent states, there will be no federal state, and each state is responsible for their resources and lands.
Claims to separate
Ghorb says that the Ethiopian prime minister and as a consequence of his delay in holding the federal elections that the provincial governors advocate under the pretext of Corona, led, according to the constitution, to each state holding its own elections, which is what happened in Tigray, which held elections, and according to the constitution, there is one step left for her to officially declare separation, so the president tries The current minister aborted it, and used the Ethiopian army to attack the region and its facilities, and crashed with the refusal of the chancellor, the army chief and the intelligence chief, for which he overthrew them, which could deepen the conflict and plunge the country into a civil war.
In the event of a civil war, which is expected, according to Dr. Sahar Ghorab, the Ormu region, which also rejects Abi Ahmed’s policies, following his delay in holding the elections and the arrest of the figure of most famous opposition, Jawhar Muhammad, who is from the region, and Abu Ahmed’s first competitor, and the murder of European singer Hakalo Hondisa. The slaughter of dozens of protesters will enter the battle with force and demand secession.
Civil war
He stated that the constitution determines the method for the separation of each region, including holding elections independently, which is what the Tigray region did, and that the Ormu can join them, due to tension within the region. of Abi Ahmed, and then the Beni Shangol region, which is the region in whose territory the Renaissance Dam is located, referring to The policies of the current Ethiopian Prime Minister and his use of the military solution to contain the regional crises will certainly push them to secede and rebel against the federal state and declare its independence, which will lead to civil wars that may not end unless Ethiopia is divided into small states and states.
We arrived at the Renaissance Dam, and as the Egyptian anthropologist says, it is located in the lands of the Benishangul Qums region, which is a land that has roots in Sudan and was acquired by Ethiopia, and most of its leaders reside outside of Ethiopia. , and they fight for the return of the region to Sudan, especially since it was originally affiliated with Sudan, confirming that the inhabitants of the region want to separate.
The fate of the Renaissance dam
She says that if the Benishangul region separates or returns to Sudan, the fate of the Renaissance dam will be ambiguous, as the region is resource poor and will not be able to complete the construction of the dam, in addition to residents rejecting the dam. from scratch, so the construction can be stopped, but if the region did not separate and remained dependent on Ethiopia and was occupied. The prime minister is in his war with the Tigray and Uormo regions, the funds that were allocated to build the dam will go to finance the war and conflict, especially since Egypt has managed to stop external funding for the dam, and Ethiopia it is currently completing construction with the state budget and citizen donations, which can be stopped after the transfer of these funds. Arm the army and finance war expenses.
In conclusion, the Egyptian expert assures that the construction of the Renaissance Dam will stop in both cases, which may end up postponing it for a time or discarding it completely and turning it into ruins, highlighting that the current approach of the Ethiopian Prime Minister and after the recent changes in the army and intelligence make it go for a military solution, and that Ethiopia will inevitably go to civil war, unless a miracle occurs.
