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Are Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil states dying on “green energy” paths?
The first signs of the new American president, Joe Biden, have taken care of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by refusing to supply weapons in the Yemen war. Are these minor details or are there other political reasons for the long-term coldness of US-Saudi relations?
Humanity is gradually moving towards the abyss of the greatest economic crisis it has faced in centuries. It is the crisis of overproduction, as well as the crisis of the end of the current technological cycle. With current technologies, it has become impossible to raise the level of human consumption above the current level. On each occasion, the exit from the crisis was linked to the transition of humanity to a new technological level, as happened before in the transition to textile factories, the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, electricity and others. This led to the emergence of new industries and, with them, to a new investment cycle. But the crisis and recovery can take decades.
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Now, there is no longer a place to invest and there is not much real demand around the world to buy all the goods produced. A large part of world production must go bankrupt, which will accompany the collapse of the United States of America and the European Union and the transformation of the center of the world economy over the centuries to come in Asia.
The problem is that there are still no scientific and technical advances that lead to a significant increase in productivity.
In these circumstances, the “masters of the world,” the elites of the American globalization project, are deliberately trying to manufacture such industries, in the hope of thus delaying the death of the Western globalization project.
In fact, these new industries exist, but they do not foresee the transition to a higher level of efficiency and productivity, on the contrary, they are less profitable.
Under Presidents Obama and Trump, there was shale oil and gas. In 2016, these industries accounted for 45% of all investment in the United States of America, and thus these industries provided half of the total economic growth in the United States. However, with falling oil prices, much of the industry is no longer profitable. Further expansion has been called into question. In fact, the depletion of this project contributes significantly to the current economic decline in the United States.
But the western elites were led to a new project, which is “green energy.” They even prepared a special project under the name “Greta Thunberg”, which should become a symbol of the fight for a bright and environmentally friendly future, which “green energy” is supposed to lead.
Except that not everything is so simple. Recently, publications have appeared stating that as investments increase, solar and wind power generation will be more profitable than nuclear and other “dirty” power sources. This is questionable information, not to mention that not all countries have the necessary conditions to generate solar or wind energy. But in any case, the transition to “green energy” requires trillions, or even tens of trillions of dollars, which no one has at the moment.
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But hey, the central banks of the West (US, Europe, Japan, Australia … etc) printed in one last year, according to some estimates, 14 trillion dollars in discovered money.
While this money is traded on global exchanges, the West uses it to buy real goods and raw materials from developing countries. Ultimately, there is a redistribution of benefits in the context of neocolonialism.
But that same money, or even tens of trillions of additional new discovered items, could go towards generating “green energy” in the West. The central banks of Europe will print the money necessary for this process.
As for the rest of the world, which will accept these dollars, euros and yen in exchange for goods and raw materials, it will pay for the West’s transition to renewable energy. At the same time, and as expected, this should unleash a new investment cycle that pulls the economies of Western countries out of the crisis.
However, as I mentioned, various experts say that “clean” power generation is still not profitable compared to traditional “impure” power sources such as nuclear power, gas, and even coal. Products that will be produced using “clean” energy will be more expensive than their “dirty” counterparts.
That is why the West plans to impose additional tariffs on goods from other countries, under the pretext that these countries use “dirty” energy sources and are not fighting for the environment with “Greta Thunberg”.
To achieve this goal, the most beautiful and the loudest excuses can be made, but they must not be misleading, because we are talking here about vulgar and dishonest competition.
The European Union has already announced such intentions and, following the victory of Joe Biden, a supporter of globalization, it is expected that the United States of America will soon join that chorus.
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Where would Sudan or Morocco, for example, get tens of billions of dollars to switch to solar energy? It is clear that products from most Arab countries will be subject to additional fees.
One way or another, fossil fuel exporting countries will suffer a double blow. On the one hand, the West will reduce the consumption of the raw materials they extract, which will lead to lower energy prices, and will also withdraw part of their profits. imposing a tax on goods produced outside the West.
Of course, Saudi Arabia and the oil-rich Gulf states will be at the forefront of those affected, as the economies of these countries are too dependent on energy prices and the Gulf will seek out new consumers.
I have written before that any union between the Gulf states and China is an ideal marriage from an economic point of view. I believe that China will be ready, 10 years from now, to increase its imports of fossil energy resources, but Washington cannot allow the Gulf to enter the hands of China.
And if before you spoke of this conflict as a remote possibility, after the triumph of globalization in the recent elections in the United States of America, that conflict has become the agenda of today and tomorrow. I expect an escalation of the Sino-US conflict over Gulf oil and further complication in US-Saudi relations in the near future, during US President Joe Biden’s tenure.
Political analyst / Alexander Nazarov
The article expresses only the opinion of the newspaper or writer.
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