Imports are decreasing and the price of oil is falling … What is the state of the dollar in the coming period? Expert response

Experts expected the stability of the US dollar exchange rate against the Egyptian pound, despite the unemployment of sectors such as tourism and others, which were an important source of foreign income, confirming the decrease in imports and the lack of demand. of the dollar with an abundance of supply due to the decrease in imports, and the decrease in the price of oil worldwide, which led to providing billions in the state budget.

Sahar Al Damati, a banking expert, expected the price of the dollar to stabilize during the current period, for various reasons, especially the low demand for the dollar, given the decrease in imports in recent months and the expectation that it will not be available in the next months in light of the spread of Corona.

Al Damati told “Al Masry Al Youm” that Egypt saved billions after the drop in the price of a barrel of oil from $ 70 to $ 23, which helped to reduce the budget deficit, causing the balance to decrease. As a result of which the income decreased due to the interruption of tourism, it was compensated by the low price of oil, with an abundance of supply in dollars due to lack of demand due to lack of imports.

Al Damati noted that the decrease in reserves of $ 37 billion will not constitute a risk, because the reserves are still within safe and sufficient limits for Egypt’s needs for 7 months, and that what has been spent to cover the Egypt’s needs is equivalent to 3.1 billion pounds, and the payment of international obligations related to external debt and bond maturities equivalent to 1.6 billion pounds, highlighting that all these things are normal, especially because we are in a period exceptional for everyone.

He noted that the demand for dollar certificates is “almost non-existent”, after banks continue to issue certificates with a yield of 15%, which caused a high demand to buy those certificates.

Damati emphasized that China’s decision to negotiate with the Chinese yuan, buy its exports and cancel the agreement with the dollar will have a great impact on the price of the dollar worldwide, and we import from China in large quantities, which will work on the need of the dollar, and noted that the effects of that decision will appear significantly during the next period.

She said: «I am not worried about obligations and debts, since we can pay them, with the possibility of scheduling debts, because they are long-term and of simple interest, and that there is the possibility of postponing some of the installments, which is something that most of the countries in the world are currently working on due to the circumstances of the current crisis. ”

She expected the delay in the return of tourism, until the appearance of a cure for Corona, confirming the increase in investments in treasury bills, in a short time, indicating that all these reasons will lead to the stability of the dollar price. .

Amr Tantawy, former managing director of Banque Misr Iran, said that the current situation is ambiguous and that there are no expectations for the end of the Coruña virus, and stressed that the situation in Egypt assures large countries that conditions have deteriorated.

Tantawi expected “Al-Masry Al-Youm” that there will be stability in the price of the dollar against the pound, and that if the bad conditions continue and the treatment for the Corona virus is not discovered soon, there will be a slight increase in the price of the dollar.

Tantawi noted that there is a major challenge for governments, in light of the rapid spread of the disease, and that governments are fatally fatal between two things, between preserving health to ensure that the disease does not spread, and not stopping the economy. and work to avoid financial loss, but this can cause loss of human life.

He said that the price of the dollar is largely controlled by the movement of exports and imports, and that we have a good opportunity to increase Egyptian exports after Corona affected the main countries, and its inability to meet its obligations, and that increasing Egyptian exports in these circumstances can be a lifesaver, especially by reducing imports in Grande by the Corona crisis, with economic reform measures, and the crisis came to confirm this.

He explained that Egypt can meet foreign obligations and pay all quotas on time, hoping that exports will be a source of foreign income and that it will be a safe haven.