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1:55 am
Sunday April 19, 2020
Books – Hassan Morsi:
Dr. Islam Annan, professor of health economics and epidemiology at the Misr International University College of Pharmacy, said that the number of coronavirus infections in every country in the world is unconfirmed, explaining: “Every confirmed infection with the virus can be solved by an uncertain situation, and there are countries that put in their scenario 3 unconfirmed cases against each confirmed case “.
Annan added, in a telephone interview with the Amr Adib media, on the “Al-Hekiya” program, broadcast on the satellite channel “MBC Egypt”, on Saturday night: “We began to develop indicators for the expected scenarios on the basis of death figures because they are the most accurate, “explaining:” We take adequate samples of Mortality numbers are weekly, not daily, and two model rates are optimized, optimistic, and pessimistic.
The health economics and epidemiology conferences continued: “If the pattern of deaths goes to current rates, we expect deaths in Egypt from the Corona virus to result in an optimistic scenario of 300-400 cases by the end of April, always that all external factors are fixed, raise awareness, and precautions are followed, in terms of the number of injuries. The number of injuries expected to reach 9,000 cases, depending on the number of daily swabs being performed.
He continued: “Regarding the pessimistic scenario of 1000: 1250 deaths until the end of April in the event of major outbreaks of injuries, expecting the injuries to reach 20,000 injuries by the end of the month, and this depends on the lack of commitment to preventive measures ” He emphasized that the closest scenario to Egypt is currently in the rates of injuries and deaths due to Corona is the country of Peru, “explaining that Egypt has performed 60,000 smears, through which the number of current injuries has exceeded the 3 thousand.
Regarding the expected peak of Crown injuries and deaths in Egypt, the economics of health economists and epidemiology said that there are different scenarios to determine the peak due to changing factors such as prohibitions or awareness, but according to current rates it can be say Egypt has a month to reach its peak.
