Amid the mystery of the Kim Jong Un case, will North Korea be ruled by a 7-year-old girl? (Full story)

The truth about the death of the North Korean leader, did Kim Jong Un die? What is the nature of the illness of the President of North Korea? All the addresses are circulating on the websites in those days to clarify the nature of what is happening in the North Korean country, but before reviewing the available answers we must take into account the nature. The isolation imposed on this country makes it difficult to obtain reliable information. .

In this report, the full story of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s disease is quoted, citing Al-Arabiya.

Initially, speculation in the Dailynk newspaper, prepared by North Korean dissidents in Seoul, alleged that Kim’s inability to attend the celebrations on April 15, the birthday of his grandfather and the founder of the Kim Il-sung dynasty, was that He underwent cardiovascular surgery three days earlier at North Pyongyang County Hospital.

The mystery increased after CNN confirmed, after resorting to its own sources, that the US intelligence services were monitoring the situation. According to this article, Kim’s life may be “in serious danger” after the operation.

There are many factors that cause suspicion. The first is that the Daily NK newspaper reports that Kim Yong Un “continues to recover from a health discomfort in a village outside Pyongyang” and that “most doctors have returned to Pyongyang after Kim’s condition was considered stable. ” Therefore, there will be no imminent risk of death.

Second, and perhaps most importantly, North Korea’s neighbors are silent. “So far, no unusual signs have been detected within North Korea,” said South Korean presidential office spokesman Kang Min-suk.

A source from the Department of International Communication, the agency affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party responsible for North Korean affairs, told Reuters that he did not believe Kim was in critical condition.

Finally, it must be remembered that unfounded rumors about the diseases of North Korean leaders have been consistent since the establishment of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in 1948. Within a few years, Kim Il Sung was said to have suffered a brain tumor due to to a strange lump on his head, which was in fact due to malnutrition during his childhood.

In 2014, Kim Young Eun went into hiding for a month and a half to reappear, with no explanation for his condition (some experts believe he may have suffered from intense gout attacks, although South Korean intelligence attributed this to a Fatty Feet sack) .

However, heart problems seem to occur in the family, as their father, Kim Jong Il, died of a heart attack in 2011. Both China and South Korea may have an interest in staying calm in a setting that no one is in. prepared, and now less than ever. .

The main problem is that North Korea has never had a president who does not belong to the male branch of the Kim family. Kim has no boys, and even if the unexpected happens, in which the conservative North Korean society agrees to be led by a woman, her only daughter, Kim Joo A, is only 7 years old.

And if any foreign power hopes to be able to play a prank on his half-brother Kim Yong Nam, who is the only relatively realistic option in succession for the family, his horrific poisonings at the Kuala Lumpur airport shatter his hopes.

Among the scenarios he drew are the following: Succession of the Caliphate (the option that finally prevailed, as we know), another option that was discussed by some of the main elements of the regime that generated a power struggle and ended in failure. Today the same conditions will appear as before.

Paul R. Gregory, a researcher at the Hoover Institution, one of the academics who has publicly considered what will happen in North Korea after Kim, believes that the most likely scenario is a type of leadership in which Party leadership is involved. Korean Labor, perhaps led by “the most prominent among his peers,” Similar to China’s neighbor.

Gregory writes in Forbes: “The historical similarities with the USSR and China show that Kim will be succeeded by a lighter form of collective government, and shows the behavior of circles surrounding Soviet and Chinese power after the death of Stalin and Mao (…) that regime change in North Korea will not empower a worse leader, but will begin to move towards less hostile collective leadership. “

A power vacuum would be a very dangerous scenario for North Korea, so the most likely result is that senior regime officials are trying to act quickly to take over.

But what happens if a leadership agreement is not reached? The report notes: “This may attract some people or factions to take power, leading to a possible and possibly violent fight for leadership. It is impossible to guess what the outcome could be and what direction North Korea would take accordingly, but long and possibly violent competition for sovereignty in Pyongyang will undoubtedly create tremendous tension in the rest of the country, given the level at which the state is controlled from the center.

What we can practically rule out is a kind of popular revolt to overthrow the dictatorship. The repressive system is so effective that there is no possibility of organizing internal dissent without being immediately detected and dismantled. Even in the event of a crash, the chance of successful movement is almost negligible.

New Zealand journalist Annafield, author of the biography of Kim, the “great heir,” who traveled to North Korea dozens of times, describes the situation in an interview as follows: “Although many North Koreans reject the idea of ​​the leader of the third generation and they know that what is being said about it is fiction. And there is still no opposition in North Korea. There is no North Korea (Soviet writer and dissident), nor “samizdat” literature (a type of writing and publication secretly practiced by Soviet dissidents in the USSR as a challenge of censorship), and there are not even writings.

“When you asked a woman who told me about her leaving the regime and why the North Koreans are not trying to do anything about it, she said that if you oppose the system you are not trying to change it, you are just trying to escape.” This is because the punishment system in North Korea is very harsh: if you criticize the system, you can send three generations of your family to the gulag (a name given to a North Korean camp because of its similarity to the camps in the sovietic Union).

On the other hand, if some kind of transition occurs, it will happen at best. In South Korea, progressive President Moon Jae-in, who supports a rapprochement with Pyongyang, was re-elected by an absolute majority. The White House is also in a position to reconcile after President Donald Trump wrote to Kim Young-un in late March offering him help from the United States to combat the Corona virus, reducing the possibility of a hostile reaction. A moderate change may be welcome abroad. In addition, it can count on support on all fronts, both among Pyongyang’s traditional allies and among its competitors.

“It’s easy to be wrong about this,” said John Delory, professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul, about Kim Yong-un’s health in an article published by CNN. Kim is likely to recover, assuming the information about her surgery is primarily correct, but now there is an option not to.

In this case, we can assume that North Korean society turns into a giant funeral that shows its pain openly, real or intentional, and exaggerated for days, as it happened after the death of their father and grandfather. From there the unknown begins, and it might be better for the rest of the world to start thinking about it.

Source: Al-Arabiya.net