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A new study warns of the resurgence of natural disasters, such as Australia’s wildfires, floods or droughts, if global warming revives a climate pattern similar to the “El Niño” phenomenon in the Indian Ocean as it does in the Ocean. Peaceful.
Scientists from the University of Texas say: “If current warming trends continue in the Indian Ocean, the” El Niño “phenomenon could emerge in 2050, according to Sky News.
El Niño is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean, which affects the world’s weather patterns.
The climate cycle begins when the warm water masses in the western Pacific Ocean move towards the coasts of South America and, consequently, natural disasters such as floods, storms and droughts can worsen and become more common, greatly affecting the areas most vulnerable to climate change.
The British newspaper “The Metro” quoted Dr. Pedro Denizio of the University of Texas as saying: “The results of our study showed that an increase or decrease in the global average temperature of several degrees will only push the Indian Ocean to function like other oceans tropical, with changes in water surface temperature. At less regular rates, more volatile climates form and therefore the El Niño phenomenon of the Indian Ocean occurs. “
Computer simulation of climate change during the second half of the last century shows that global warming can change the surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean, making it rise and fall from year to year more volatile than it is today.
The pattern of change in the surface temperature of the Indian Ocean is similar to the “El Niño” phenomenon, a climatic phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and affects the climate worldwide.
The research team found evidence of the occurrence of the “El Niño” phenomenon in the Indian Ocean in the past by studying microscopic sea creatures, called “forams”, that lived 21 thousand years ago, that is, at the height of the last ice age when Earth was coldest.
Scientists have also analyzed computer simulations of the climate, collecting and classifying data according to its compatibility with data from current climate phenomena.
When the data were compared with the information on the phenomena of global warming, the most accurate simulation was the one that shows the appearance of the “El Niño” phenomenon in the Indian Ocean for the year 2100.
Commenting on the study results, Denizio said: “Global warming will create a completely different planet in the future than what we know today, or what we knew in the 20th century,” noting that the results achieved reveal that the Ocean Indic has the potential to cause much stronger climatic fluctuations than it is. Is today.
Professor Kaustop Therumalai of the University of Arizona, co-author of the research study, said: “The way that icy conditions affected winds and ocean currents in the Indian Ocean in the past is similar to the way that global warming it affects them as demonstrated by our computer simulations. ” .
He continued, “This means that the climatic fluctuations that are forming in the Indian Ocean today appear to be unusual, but they are still mild, because the winds blowing from the western Indian Ocean to the east, maintain the stability of climatic conditions from the ocean. “
Computer simulations showed that global warming can reverse the direction of these winds, that is, from east to west, destabilizing the ocean and pushing the climate to fluctuations in warming and cooling similar to the “El Niño” and ” The boy”.
According to Professor Therumalai, the occurrence of natural disasters like monsoons can affect residents of the most vulnerable regions that depend mainly on rain for agriculture.
Commenting on the study results, oceanologist Michael McFadden said: “If greenhouse gas emissions continue in their current directions, by the end of the century, extreme weather events will affect countries that overlook the Indian Ocean, like Indonesia, Australia and East Africa, at an increasing rate. “
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