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With the launch of a new round today, Saturday, in the Congo over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia is still sticking to the dates for the start of the second fill, despite objections from Egypt and Sudan, the two countries. concerned about this prickly file.
Ethiopia’s President Sahlurk Zodi confirmed yesterday that her country is well prepared for the second filling, highlighting that the development of the Blue Nile is an existential issue for her country and that Addis Ababa has not exploited the Blue Nile economically for many years. , due to regional and international conditions.
Why was this Ethiopian adherence to completing the dam and filling in despite its risks for Egypt and Sudan, as well as its lack of great economic benefit for Ethiopia, as revealed by international bodies? What is your secret and how was your idea launched?
33 small dams … instead of one
To answer all these questions, Sahar Mohamed Ghorab, professor of anthropology at Cairo University and researcher specialized in ethnology in Ethiopia, explained that it is necessary to understand this archive going back to history to know the idea of establishing the Renaissance Dam, It was launched in the 1950s, and it was planned to establish 33 small dams in the regions. Separated, the project was halted after the intervention of the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser and his agreement with the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie, in exchange for a great cooperation with Ethiopia on development projects, indicating that the idea was launched again in all reigns. of the presidents of Egypt from that time until now, and was sometimes rejected and sometimes with an explicit threat, for example, the famous sentence of the late President Anwar Sadat, “I cannot leave the dam, but I will blow it up and not it. I’ll leave a brick upon a brick. “
Renaissance Dam (Archives – France Press)
He also added in an interview with Al-Arabiya.net that during all past periods, Ethiopian maneuvers were carried out, and the location and location of the dam, its size and its details changed, until the Ethiopians brought to light the idea in early 2011.
He claimed that the dam, with his project and his old idea, was to be built in an area between “Shangol Qums” and Jebelin, and could not be erected later, but there was a change and a transfer to its current location in the same region. Also, due to the possibility of increasing its storage capacity and raising it later, noting that the Bani Shangul area is distinguished and remains until now the Sudanese culture and customs, by being affiliated with Sudan, and Ethiopia later took control from her with the blessing of the British occupation.
Tribal and ethnic motifs
Regarding the secret of Addis Ababa’s accession to the dam, the Egyptian expert said that Ethiopia has gone through major civil and ethnic wars, reaching the point of massacres, and this ended with the arrival of a federal system that allows each ethnic group to rule in its territory. areas of influence, and 9 ethnic regions have been established, but despite this the unrest has not stopped, adding that the period The construction of the dam occurred during the rule of the Tigray tribes, who are a minority, took the control of all other ethnicities. regions, and entered into conflicts with the Amhara and Oramo tribes, but then there was a coup against the Tigray tribes, and the Oromo tribe took control, from which 21 different groups branched out, conflicts and disputes arose between them. governance, including one group under the banner of Jawhar Muhammad, and another under the banner of Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister, so the Oromo tribes thought of continuing to build the dam to unify the tribe’s flag first, then stop conflicts and struggles between groups for the government, and unite the Ethiopians behind the dam in second place.
Great Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia (Archives – France Press)
Economic benefits
In addition, he added that Ethiopia, with its insistence on the construction of the dam, intends to flirt with major countries and persuade them to invest their money in a large project that will provide, according to its estimate, large amounts of electricity and huge amounts of water. enough to cultivate and irrigate millions of acres of agricultural land, which will make significant investments that will revive the country’s economy on the one hand, and provide international and political support against Egypt and Sudan on the other.
He also saw that Ethiopia does not want to stop its plan, despite the risks of the dam in the two downstream countries so as not to lose all these financial, political and development bets, as well as its concern about the outbreak of conflicts and conflicts with the ferocity, heralding a civil war ending in separate countries.
Dam of the Great Renaissance (Reuters)
Control of the Blue Nile
For his part, Dr. Abdel-Fattah Mutawa, former head of the Nile water sector in Egypt’s Irrigation Ministry, revealed to Al-Arabiya.net that the Ethiopian idea of building the dam was the desire to control the Blue River . Nile and impose Ethiopian influence on the region, adding that Addis Ababa’s current dilemma lies in how to abandon this Dream of signing a binding legal agreement with Egypt and Sudan.
Clash of tribes
He also saw that what deepens this impasse is the disappearance of the strong Ethiopian personality capable of signing the agreement, in light of a complex tribal and ethnic reality imposed by the upcoming parliamentary elections in June 2021, followed by the selection of a new Ethiopian leader. minister, who may not be Abi Ahmed or her tribe, in light of the presence of powerful armed militias outside state control, which are the Oromo Liberation Forces Army, the Tigray Liberation Forces Army and the forces of the Amhara National Movement, all of which are local forces to impose the will of the tribes and can fight each other if there is no single project that brings them together now.
From Tigray, northern Ethiopia (Reuters)
He added that the Ethiopian dam, in short, is a political project by all standards, not a technical or national project aimed at Ethiopia’s interests, and the evidence of this is Ethiopian confusion in announcing its details, as had been intended since then. its announcement, that the storage capacity would be 14 billion m3, then increased to 74 billion m3, and its Execution began without completing the environmental impact study, according to the report of the International Committee of Experts. developed the matter and was used to settle political and ethnic scores, including, for example, the liquidation of companies implementing the project at the hands of Abi Ahmed, the prime minister, under accusations of corruption in companies run by leaders of the army of the United States. Tigray tribe to implement the dam, then they assassinated the director of the dam project without announcing the results of the investigations so far, and the prime minister’s announcement in the Ethiopian parliament that he was not responsible for delaying the project’s implementation, due to to the corruption of Tigray officials.
From Tigray, northern Ethiopia (Reuters)
In addition, he wondered: if the Ethiopian leadership is unable to reach internal agreements between its rival tribes, and denies the agreements signed with Egypt and Sudan on the waters of the Nile decades ago, it will go to sign a binding legal agreement with Egypt. and Sudan?
Rush to buy
In turn, the Egyptian expert in the field of water resources, Abbas Sharaqi, said in an interview with Al-Arabiya.net that the Ethiopian government is in trouble, and that it can no longer withdraw from the construction of the dam, especially after he promoted its importance and ability to achieve prosperity, prompting the Ethiopian people to rush to buy bonds to build the dam, hoping that clean water will reach the agricultural lands after the rainy season ends , increase irrigated agricultural investments and thus improve living conditions, and provide a large surplus of electricity, since more than 60% of the population lives without electricity.
He said: “The painful truth is that the water from the Renaissance dam will not reach the Ethiopian people, given that the dam is located on the border with Sudan at a low level of 500 meters above sea level, while most of the Ethiopians live at altitudes of more than 2,000 meters, and Ethiopia claims its ability to provide surplus electricity. ” And export it, which is contrary to logic and reality because it does not have an internal electrical transmission network, and it is difficult to build and implement it. due to the great economic cost and the difficulty of the mountainous areas that do not have the means to transport the towers as well as the intensity of the annual floods that can uproot them ”, in his opinion.
The Egyptian expert concluded, stressing that the dam is a political project, not a technical one, and Ethiopia will not be able to complete it to the end.
