Conflict in Tigray: Why are fears of civil war growing in Ethiopia?

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a military strike after Tigray forces were accused of attacking and seizing a military base in Mikkeli, the provincial capital, a charge denied by Tigray forces.

But this tension between the two sides is not born of the hour, but has been growing for a long time. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which has been the dominant political party in Ethiopia for decades, has been in conflict with the Abe government since it took power in 2018.

Following his election as a “reformist leader,” the prime minister accused former government officials of corruption and human rights violations, removing prominent figures from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray from their positions in the central government. This included former intelligence chief and senior official with the Tigray Liberation Front, Sorry Getachew, who escaped arrest and fled to Tigray, where he remains a fugitive from justice until now.

Abe’s decision last year to bring in the ethnic-based parties that formed the ruling EPRDF coalition to establish the Prosperity Party deepened these tensions. The TPLF opposed the decision, saying it would divide the country and refused to join the Prosperity Party.

And earlier this year, the dispute widened after the federal government postponed elections across the country.

Tigray’s decision to hold provincial elections in September alone was an unprecedented challenge to the federal government, and the Federal Parliament described the process as “illegal.”

Since then, both governments began to call themselves “illegal and unconstitutional.”

The TPLF had previously issued veiled threats of secession, citing an article in the Federal Constitution that allows “the unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.”

“We will never grant anyone who intends to suppress our right, for which we fight, to obtain self-determination and self-government,” said district leader Debarsion Gebremikhael in August.

In early October, the federal government decided to cut ties with the Tigray region, and the upper house of parliament voted to suspend the aid budget for the region.

لماذا TTPleasures Front Tsilk People TigeraIs this important?

From the overthrow of Marxist leader Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991 to 2018, the Tigray Popular Liberation Front was the main partner in the ruling coalition, as well as the administration of the Tigray region itself.

The Front, as a trained guerrilla force, played a pivotal role in the overthrow of Mengistu, and continued to dominate not only the country’s politics, but also its economy.

The front’s disagreement with Abe represents a deep crack in the heart of the country’s power.

Most of the regional leaders of the Tigrayans, including Burundians, have worked in the central government for long periods of time.

Debrecion, a veteran combatant, was at one time deputy prime minister. His comrades and advisers held key positions in the country until Abe came to power.

What does the Liberation Front want? People Tigray?

The Tigray administration views Abe’s reforms as an attempt to build a unified system of government that destroys the current federal system.

He is also upset by what he calls the prime minister’s “unprincipled” friendship with Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki.

Abe won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts to bring peace to Eritrea, Ethiopia’s longtime enemy. But the TPLF feels that the federal government is tolerating the interests of the region and wants to have more voice in future relations with Eritrea, Ethiopia’s neighbor.

However, the Prime Minister believes that TPLF officials are undermining his authority.

It is Eritrea Committed In the Tigray conflict?

For a long time, there has been a rift between the TPLF and the government of Eritrea, which has a long shared border with the Tigrayans.

The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea began between 1998-2000 due to a dispute over territories along that border, especially the area around Badme.

The status of this city remains unresolved as Eritrea wants Ethiopia to abide by the decision of the United Nations-backed Border Commission to hand over the city to it.

However, this cannot be achieved without the cooperation of the Tigray Regional Government, which administers this region.

In a statement about the attack on a federal army base, Abe’s office accused the TPLF of dressing its soldiers in military uniforms similar to those of the neighboring Eritrean army in an attempt to present “a false accusation that the Eritrean government it involved the attack on the Tigrayans. “

The leader of the Tigrayans, the Debris, accused the Eritrean forces of fighting alongside the Ethiopian forces against the Tigrayans. This was denied by both Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The leader of the Tigray region previously said that his forces are ready to fight for the defense of the area, which will be a “burial place for reactionaries,” he said, calling on the people of Tigray to understand the situation and carry out all necessary preparations.

The Tigrayan Liberation Front also issued documents to raise funds for their war effort and equipment.

Debarsion said before the military confrontation: “We have prepared our army, militias and special forces. Our preparations aim to avoid war, but if we want to fight, we are ready to win.”

Justifying the military standoff, Abe’s office accused the TPLF of “constant provocation and incitement to violence”, saying they had “crossed the last red line.”

The Abe government issued arrest warrants for the leaders of the Popular Liberation Front for the Liberation of the Tigrayans and appointed a new leader for the region, expecting the war to end soon. But the TPLF forces are well trained and highly experienced in combat, so some fear the conflict will continue for too long.

There are also concerns that the conflict in Tigray, which accounts for about 6% of Ethiopia’s population of more than 100 million, could exacerbate tensions in the rest of the ethnically divided country.