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Trump supported Egypt’s position on the Renaissance dam dossier
For critics of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, the escalation of tensions between two former allies of the United States, Egypt and Ethiopia, over a huge dam on a tributary of the Nile, represents the greatest diplomatic failure of his administration in Africa.
Trump said last week that Egypt could “blow up” the dam built by Ethiopia, despite his boast last January that he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize because he “made a deal.”
“I avoided a major war, but more like two wars,” he said shortly after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the award.
Trump’s comments were vague but seemed to indicate his intervention, at the request of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who once described him as his “favorite dictator,” to resolve the dispute over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). .
Egypt views the dam as an “existential threat” to its survival, a concern Sudan shares, albeit to a lesser extent. On the other hand, Ethiopia considers the dam to be vital for its energy needs.
Trump is hated by Ethiopians
Kenya-based Horn of Africa security analyst Rashid Abdi said US mediation on the dam had exacerbated tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Abdi added: “Ethiopia is improving security around the dam.”
It added that “its defensive measures include declaring the Bani Shengul-Gumuz area, where the dam is located, a restricted airspace, and there are also reports that Ethiopia has placed anti-aircraft batteries around the dam and may fear reconnaissance flights from Egypt. “.
Abdi said this showed Trump’s lack of understanding of how global diplomacy works.
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When the work is completed, the Grand Renaissance Dam will be the largest in Africa
“He has the misconception that you can do a deal like a business, so he left the US Treasury to play the leading role in negotiations when the State Department was supposed to manage foreign policy and consequences. they were going to exacerbate a situation that was already bad, “he explained. .
Washington accused Ethiopia of negotiating in bad faith after its decision to proceed with the filling of the dam before addressing Egypt and Sudan’s concerns about the flow of water to their countries.
The United States decided to cut $ 100 million in aid to Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country and a key US ally in the war against Islamist militants in the troubled Horn of Africa.
Abdi said: “Ethiopia feels that the United States has betrayed it, and Trump is now a figure hated by many Ethiopians,” adding that they expect Joe Biden to win the presidential election on November 3.
W. Geode Moore, senior policy researcher at the US-based Center for Global Development, said the Trump administration’s decision to support Egypt was not surprising because its most valuable international goal was to bring Israel closer to the states. members of the Arab League.
Changing the levels of the Nile River in northwestern Ethiopia
12th of July
The 26th of June
Trump’s diplomatic coup
Moore said that since Egypt has long-standing diplomatic relations with Israel, the Trump administration will not provoke it at a time when it needs Sisi’s help to pressure other Arab countries to recognize Israel.
He added: “Therefore, the administration became part of the dispute over the dam alongside Egypt.”
The US President Donald Trump’s administration’s focus on achieving an Arab-Israeli rapprochement also shaped its policy toward Sudan, which gave Trump a major diplomatic coup by agreeing less than two weeks before the US elections to normalize relations. with Israel.
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Protests in Sudan over the high cost of living and to demand justice for the victims of the old regime
Although Sudan’s acting foreign minister later said that the decision is subject to ratification by a legislative body that has yet to be formed, the statement was of particular significance as Sudan hosted a famous meeting of the Arab League in 1967 in which he declared that “there is no peace with Israel.” There is no recognition of Israel or negotiations with it. “
In return, Trump, if he wins a second term, is expected to continue to pressure Ethiopia to address Egypt and Sudan’s concerns about the dam, while ensuring that Sudan is removed from the US list of “sponsors of terrorism. “, thus opening the way for the country to obtain much-needed economic aid.
Moore said that while the Trump administration deserves praise if the United States Congress removed Sudan from the terrorist list, its decision to link that with recognition of Israel was too risky for the government of Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, which took over. the post last year after the overthrow of the Omar al-Bashir regime.
“The issue of relations with Israel has deeply divided Sudanese society and could be a destabilizing factor at a time when the government already faces its own security challenges and the peace is fragile,” Moore added.
Tension with China
For Abdi, an additional concern about the effects of Trump’s policies in Africa has been the “new cold war” between the United States and China.
One example is the fact that China has established its first foreign military base in Djibouti, close to the US base used in air strikes against Islamist militants in Somalia, and is the focal point for counterterrorism operations in Africa and Yemen. Abdi said: “American fighter jets were coming to land recently, and the Chinese launched experimental laser weapons that temporarily blinded American pilots. This is what is expected in the James Bond movie.”
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China built its first overseas military base in Djibouti
Abdi added: “In the Trump era, the United States pursued an aggressive policy against China, while China became an increasingly assertive force, creating a dangerous situation in the Horn of Africa.”
As part of its efforts to counter China’s growing economic influence on the continent, the Trump administration unveiled the African Prosperity Program in 2018 as a cornerstone of its policy toward the continent.
“They want to double the volume of trade between the United States and Africa in both directions,” Moore said. “So it is a very prominent goal and it could be of great benefit to Africa, more than any other administration has done, but they are still trying to figure out how things will go among themselves.”
Moore added that US investments in Africa were previously in the oil and gas sector, but this declined dramatically due to the growth of the hydraulic fracturing process (to produce what is known as shale oil) in the United States.
The Trump administration created the state-funded Development Finance Corporation in 2019 to help American businesses establish themselves in Africa.
“They want to provide financing to American companies that have complained about their inability to compete because Chinese companies are coming in with financing, and if you just look at the IT sector, almost 70 percent of Africa’s IT backbone is based on Chinese components, “Moore said. .
Undermining the efforts of the African Union
The Trump administration also decided to abolish the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) when it expires in 2025. The law represented the distinctive African policy of US Democratic President Bill Clinton, granting African countries preferential access to the US market.
Moore said the administration’s focus has been on bilateral trade deals, and that it is already in talks with Kenya, the economic powerhouse in East Africa that is part of the China Belt and Road Initiative that the United States believes. which aims to build a series of trade routes that will connect the Asian giant with Africa, promoting it. China’s global dominance.
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China built roads, railways and football stadiums in Africa
“The Trump administration wants to conclude an agreement with Kenya, which will then be used as a model for a large number of agreements with other African countries,” Moore said. “Kenya agreed with this because it used AGO to its advantage and does not want to lose trade with the United States,” Moore added.
This came despite the fact that the African Union Commissioner for Trade and Industry, Albert Mushanga, had expressed his preference for negotiating with “one voice” “an agreement between all of Africa and the United States”.
Moore said the US decision could undermine the African Union’s efforts to integrate the economies of African countries with the goal of turning the continent into the world’s largest free trade area.
“This step is an extension of the Trump administration’s policy of not working within the framework of multilateral framework agreements,” Moore said.
Moore said Kenya’s decision to enter into bilateral talks was not surprising either, adding: “The United States is taking the cards here because it is the market that African countries want to access, regardless of who is in power (after the November 3 elections), and will pay Kenya since a bilateral deal postponed unless its current access to the US market is guaranteed. “
He added that Biden, who served as vice president under former President Barack Obama, has yet to declare his policy for Africa if he wins.
“The Biden administration can go back to what existed in the Obama era, but compared to China, whose Secretary of State has visited Africa annually since 2000, there are few high-level exchanges between the United States and Africa,” Moore said.
“The Trump administration is not new to giving Africa a low priority. It was worse,” Moore said.
