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Dr. Zaki El-Beheiry, professor of African and Nile Basin Studies at the University of Mansoura in Egypt, revealed Ethiopia’s plans to build 3 more dams in addition to the Renaissance Dam, with an estimated storage capacity of about 200 billion cubic meters of water, through which it intends to generate electricity and expand the cultivation area, but in the end it really affects On the actions of the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.
Dr. Zaki Al-Buhairi
He said in an interview with Al Arabiya.net that Egypt had known about these plans since 2008, when the Council of Ministers headed by Dr. Ahmed Nazif decided to conduct a study on the dams Ethiopia intends to establish on the Blue Nile, and their impact on its water quota, and commissioned a Canadian advisory group to prepare a report on it. These are the “Kardaouba”, “Pico Abu” and “Mendaya” dams, and the “border” dam, whose name changed to “Millennium Dam” and then “Renaissance Dam”, indicating that the consultative study concluded that The storage capacity of the four dams will reach 200 billion cubic meters of water, which is more than 3 times the total annual income of the Blue Nile, and revealed that the heights of these dams vary, as they reach 90 meters in the Renaissance Dam, which has been increased to 145 meters, and 285 meters at the Biko Abu Dam.
The Egyptian expert said that the Canadian Consultative Group concluded that the amounts of water stored from the four dams will be a deduction from the water reserve in front of the High Dam, which is used to fill the water deficit to import the river into Egypt, in the years of little flooding, which will cause drought and water deficit for Egypt after the establishment of these dams. Adding that the water Ethiopia will use to irrigate some of its agricultural land will also be deducted from the annual water quota for Egypt and Sudan.
It revealed that a group of experts from the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation prepared a study on the “Pico Abu” dam and found that its storage capacity would be in the range of 38 billion cubic meters, and if established within 10 years, it would cause an annual water deficit of 9 billion cubic meters from Egypt’s share during Years of Filling, and the same in Sudan, and the electricity generated by the high dam and the Aswan reservoir will decrease by about 500 megawatts a year, and the water deficit will increase during the construction and filling periods, if the dam’s water is used for agricultural purposes in Ethiopia.
Al-Beheiri explains that among those dams Ethiopia plans to build on the Blue Nile is the “Karadawi” dam, located between the Amhara and Oromia regions, 60 km west of the Abay Bridge in Dajan.
Egyptian studies on the four dams showed that if Ethiopia built all of them and filled them over a 40-year period, as scheduled, this could lead to an annual water deficit for Egypt during the filling and operating periods of the dam. about 8 billion, and the same amount of Sudan’s share, and the amount of electricity will decrease in this regard. Generated by the high dam and the Aswan reservoir, around 600 megawatts, adding that Egyptian studies also confirmed that if Ethiopian dams are used after the end of the filling periods, the water deficit for Egypt will range annually between 8 and 14 billion cubic meters.
In the case of using the water from the four dams in agriculture, Egypt’s water deficit will increase to reach 19,000 million cubic meters per year of its share of the water of the Nile, and the electricity production generated by the high dam and the Aswan reservoir will decrease by 1000 megawatts per year.
He adds that according to a doctoral study from the University of “Oxford” published by the Royal British Institute of International Affairs in June 2011, the four dams are a key component of an Ethiopian strategy that has big goals, such as granting Ethiopia a leadership role in the countries of the Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin, and monopolize generation and export. Electric power in the region, which will give Addis Ababa the longest hand in determining and estimating the amounts of water flowing into the two downstream countries and their timing and disposal, indicates that Cairo has been aware of this for decades. and it is seeking all means to protect its water security and its historical rights in the waters of the Nile.
