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Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election four years ago raised unprecedented doubts about whether the polls could be trusted. Is it reliable this time?
Sixteen days before the Nov.3 election, Democrat Joe Biden is ahead of the Republican president by nine percentage points nationally, according to polls published by the RealClearPolitics website, but in the United States, candidates win the White House through the commission. Elector, not popular vote.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, but he won enough states to rally the votes he needed to become president, and this year, six states are considered essential to reach the White House: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona. , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. .
But if the polls are correct, Biden appears to be in a better position on it, although he is sometimes within the margin of error, and his advance ranges from a difference of 1.7 percentage points in Florida to 7.2 in Michigan.
Where were the mistakes in 2016?
On the eve of the election, polls correctly predicted a slight lead for Clinton nationally, but she “missed some of the changing Midwestern states” that Trump eventually won, said Chris Jackson of the Ipsos Center for Public Affairs.
One reason for this was the underrepresentation in the survey samples of the white population without a college degree who voted for Trump, and most voting institutes indicate that they have made corrections to their general methodology to exclude such errors in the next elections.
This time around, polls are being conducted with greater interest and more frequently in critical states that didn’t see enough polls last time, and pollsters are indicating that the results are consistent this time. Since the spring, Biden has led a rate that has never fallen below 4 percentage points.
Ultimately, in such a polarized country, there are far fewer swing voters who could turn the tide at the last minute.
Are there voters who have reservations about their preference for Trump?
Some feel that there are voters who are reluctant to declare their preference for Trump in the polls because of the controversy surrounding him, and Trump said that “the polls were wrong last time and more wrong this time.”
The Trafalgar Group, the polling firm favored by Republicans and using an approach that takes into account the possibility of voter conservatism, was among the few who predicted Trump’s 2016 victory in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but this time it favors to Biden in critical states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Four years ago, Trump was just a new businessman in the political arena. Consequently, it is often difficult for ballot box organizers to evaluate this type of candidate, and Jackson comments on this, saying, “Everyone has an opinion on him now, so not everyone is equally surprised at Donald Trump.”
What if the polls are wrong?
According to calculations by the New York Times, Biden would win even if current polls in each state are as flawed as they were four years ago.
New York Times reporter Nate Cone recently wrote that “based on our average polls, Biden is more likely to win in Texas, giving him over 400 electoral votes, than President Trump is likely to win in traditionally undecided states. like Pennsylvania and Nevada. “
Pollsters and analysts remain cautious in pointing out that voting intentions cannot be sufficient as expectations, that there is a margin of error, and that electoral campaigns may undergo changes, as the outcome of the 2016 presidential election was likely decided in the last minute.
It should be noted that 16 days before that election, the Five Thirty Eight site favored Clinton’s victory by 86 percent, which is repeated now with Biden, and in the United States, the voter registration changes drastically, which makes participation rates are especially difficult to predict. .
Trump indicates when addressing his supporters at his election rallies that the momentum is in his favor, but will this translate to the polls? Will Democrats who weren’t excited about Clinton, who initially thought he had already won, line up behind the fading Biden to topple Trump?
How will the epidemic affect?
“We will have a vote-by-mail and an early vote, which will be at historic levels,” says Jackson, “We don’t know what the impact of that will be.” There are many complex factors that will overlap, and these are the things that are difficult to calculate for surveys. “
