With the regular season over, it’s time for business in the Orlando bubble.
The Portland Trail Blazers completed the NBA playoffs brace with their play-in win against the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday.
Now, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks, the LeBron-James lead Los Angeles Lakers and Kawhi Leonard’s Los Angeles Clippers are one of the teams fighting for supremacy at Walt Disney World Resort.
With the post season scheduled to begin on Monday, we use STATS data to predict the first round.
Eastern Conference
Milwaukee Bucks (1) – Orlando Magic (8)
Seeing their first NBA championship since 1971, the Bucks battled in the opening round struggling for form.
The Bucks, who went 52-8 from their first 60 games, recorded a 4-9 win-loss ratio from their last 13 fixtures – becoming the first team in NBA history to have more losses in their last 13 regular season games than she did in the entire season before.
Inside the bubble, but in familiar surroundings, the Magic have the chance to catch a playoff drought, despite the chances stacked against them.
Not since 2010 has the Magic won a playoff series. Orlando swept the Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks on their way to the finals of the conference before losing to the Boston Celtics. The Magic have been out in the hands of the Hawks (2011), Indiana Pacers (2012) and Toronto Raptors (2019) since the first rounds.
Toronto Raptors (2) v Brooklyn Nets (7)
Defensive champions the Raptors have taken shape on their side in the pursuit of back-to-back championships.
Toronto went 27-5 over their last 32 games, easily the best record in the NBA in that period – ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder (21-10), Los Angeles Clippers (20-10), Bucks (20-11 ) and Celtics (21-13).
Nets star Spencer Dinwiddie has been one of the most clutch players this season, making an NBA-high seven go-ahead mandrels made in the last minute of the fourth quarter as overtime.
Dinwiddie’s seven for 13 is better than Denver Nuggets ‘Nikola Jokic (five), Utah Jazz star Donovan Mitchell and the Nuggets’ Jamal Murray (both four).
Boston Celtics (3) – Philadelphia 76ers (6)
The Celtics renew renewed hostility with rivals the 76ers, having won the past four series between the two teams – Philadelphia has not claimed a series against Boston in the playoffs since 1982.
Philadelphia hopes to rest on Joel Embiid in the absence of injured All-Star colleague Ben Simmons, who is the only player in NBA history to average 8.0-plus rebounds and 8.0-plus assists per game for his career.
The 76ers are 35-22 (.614 per cent) with Simmons in the team, while they are just 7-8 (.467 per cent) without the Australian star on the court. Philadelphia also allowed more opposition points per game in its absence – 113.6 compared to 107.2.
Indiana Pacers (4) – Miami Heat (5)
All eyes will be on Indiana’s TJ Warren, who averaged 31.0 points per game with a .664 effective field goal percentage this month after the restart.
Since 1985-86, players with 30.0-plus points and a .650-plus effective field goal percentage in a month (minimum five games played) are Charles Barkley (1990), Stephen Curry (2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019), Antetokounmpo (2017 and 2019) and Karl Anthony-Towns (2019).
With Heat pairing Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson, Miami is the first NBA team to have two developed players averaging 13.0-plus points per game in the same season – at least 70 percent of team games played – since the Philadelphia Warriors in 1956-57 (Joe Graboski and Neil Johnston).
Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers (1) – Portland Trail Blazers (8)
Their Lakers – who have a 74.6 percent chance of winning this series with Stats Perform’s advanced simulation tool made with their first appearance after 2013, are the Lakers – one of the favorites to go all out, thanks to James and Anthony Davis.
James and Davis have combined well in LA, where the former has provided 184 assists for the All-Star recruit this season – the most for a single player in 2019-20, ahead of Damian Lillard to Hassan Whiteside (132). Three-time champion and four-time MVP James is also the second-oldest player to average 10 assists or more in a season in NBA history, with Steve Nash averaging 10.0-plus assists in each of his last three campaigns.
This will be the second playoff meeting between James and Carmelo Anthony. James and the Heat eliminated Anthony and the New York Knicks in the first round in 2012. Both averaged 27.8 points in the series. James was the first overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, while Anthony was the third pick. Their matchups date back to high school, when LeBron was in St. Louis. Vincent St. Mary’s and Carmelo at Oak Hill Academy.
Portland’s go-to-man Lillard leads the NBA in scoring in the bubble at 37.6 per game, including the play-in collision. The Trail Blazers star averaged 46.3 points in his past four games after a career-high 61 against the Dallas Mavericks earlier this month. He contributed to Portland averaging a league-high 126.0 points per game at Walt Disney World Resort, while the Lakers managed just 106.4 points per game – the second worst behind the Washington Wizards.
What about the most points per game by team-mate duos? Lillard and CJ McCollum (52.2) are second on James Harden and Russell Westbrook (61.5), but ahead are James and Davis (51.4) in third place.
Los Angeles Clippers (2) – Dallas Mavericks (7)
Can Leonard claim successive NBA titles after leading the Raptors to their first championship last season? Well, it all starts against the Mavericks.
Leonard – the 2019 MVP Final – averaged a career-high 27.1 points per game this season, while averaging 30.5 in last year’s playoffs. The four-time All-Star also averaged 31.0 points per game this season in three games against the Mavericks, with the Clippers sweeping the season series.
Led by Luka Doncic, the Mavericks have the second-highest offensive rating ever – 113.7 – behind last year’s Golden State Warriors (113.9). The Clippers have an 111.1 rating, tied with the Trail Blazers for second this season.
Doncic is averaging 30.0 points, 10.1 assists and 9.7 rebounds in the bubble. The reigning Rookie of the Year also has three triple-doubles, including a triple-double with 20 rebounds.
Denver Nuggets (3) – Utah Jazz (6)
A Jazz team with the likes of Joe Ingles and Mitchell are the best shooting team with three points at 38.0 percent, though Utah went 2-5 in their last seven games of the regular season – allowing 110-plus points per game.
Rudy Gobert is also one shoe of 250 career double-doubles, as the Jazz look to weigh their season paint at the hands of the Nuggets, even though each game was decided by six or fewer points.
The Nuggets made the conference semifinals last season, hitting a five-year playoff drought. Jovic will be the key to Denver, averaging 7.0 assists per game for a second straight season – the most by any center in the NBA.
Houston Rockets (4) – Oklahoma City Thunder (5)
It will be a reunion as Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul face off against their former teams.
The Rockets have advanced to at least the second round of the playoffs in three straight seasons and their hopes will depend on the team’s top five – their starters average 89.1 points per game, the most in the league.
Former Thunder star Harden is also coming off his third consecutive season averaging 30 points or more per game (34.3 in 2019-20). He is the all-time leader of the franchise in postseason assists (510) and second in points (2,061) behind Hakeem Olajuwon (3,727).
Westbrook, who arrived from the Thunder in a blockbuster trade at the start of the season, is second all-time for Oklahoma City in playoff points (2,489), behind Kevin Durant’s 2,620, third in rebounds (686), first in assists (778) and first in steals (184).
The Thunder, with ex-Rockets guard Paul, have not advanced to the first round of the postseason since 2016 after blowing up a 3-1 lead against the Warriors in the Conference Finals.
