Recent cases and fatal statistics from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) show that when recorded Covid-19 cases are on the rise in the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Germany and other European countries, with deaths not rising at the same rate.
In the UK, mortality has dropped, we can see it going down from June to August, ”said Jason Oke, senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences. “Our current estimate is that there is a slight increase in infection mortality, but we have not come close to where we were and that is unlikely to change dramatically until we see a really surprising increase in the number of deaths.”
OK with Evidence Based Medicine and Health Economist Daniel Haddon and his colleague Carl Heineghan looking for a Covid-19 mortality rate. Their research showed that, at the end of June, the death rate was below 3% in the UK. By August, it was down about 0.5%. That’s about 0.75% now.
“We think it probably runs a lot through age, but there are other factors as well, such as treatment,” OK said.
Low mortality rates are not typical for Europe.
Younger, healthier people are getting infected
The most obvious reason for the low mortality rate is age.
The first wave of epidemics hit Europe’s elderly particularly hard, spreading to hospitals and care homes, but this has changed during the summer, with the virus spreading to younger people going to restaurants, bars and other public places.
According to the ECDC, during the January-May period, the median median infection rate in Europe fell from June 54 to June and July.
Older people are at higher risk of becoming seriously ill if infected, so epidemics affecting care homes are more likely to be more than one fatal on a college campus.
In fact, data collected by researchers on long-term care responses from the London School of Economics to the Covid-19 group shows that, on average in 21 countries, 46% of Covid-19 deaths occur in care homes.
Researchers have found that in some countries, including Belgium, Ireland, Spain, the UK and the US, the proportion of care home residents whose deaths are associated with coronavirus was in some cases higher than %%. That means more than 25 care home residents who have died since the onset of the epidemic did so because of Covid-19.
Clinical virologist and honorary associate professor at the University of Leicester, Dr. “The Covid-19 virus is very stable, it’s not changing much,” said Julian Tange. He added, “Covid-19 is due to the individual’s host’s immune responses to the severity of the illness, with variations in age, gender, ethnicity and some pre-existing medical conditions.”
The treatment is going well
Demographic shifts may have contributed to lower mortality rates, but experts have questioned the fact that health care providers are now more experienced in dealing with Covid-19 patients is another factor.
Associate Professor Dr. Y. of the Department of Population Health at NYU Langone Health. “While Covid-19 is a deadly disease, our efforts to improve treatment are probably working,” said Leora Horwitz.
Horwitz and his team found that, when adjusted for demographic and clinical factors, the mortality rate for hospital admissions under the NYU system dropped from 25.6% in March to 7.6%.
The way coronavirus patients are treated has also changed. Ventilators, widely used at the onset of the epidemic, are now less commonly used as doctors have learned more about how they injure the lungs of Covid-19 patients. In turn, keeping the face down on the abdomen of patients has become more common, as it has been shown to help increase the amount of oxygen oxygen in the lungs of some patients.
Statistics show that people who end up in a UK hospital are experiencing better results.
The Intensive Care National IT and Research Center found that Covid-19 patients treated in intensive care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland after September 1 were more likely to survive than those previously admitted: 12% of patients died early. . In September, 39% of those admitted between the beginning of the epidemic and the end of August.
“It simply came to our notice then [the healthcare workers] Now find out what to do, or maybe people present with mild symptoms, ”OK said.
And yet, there is no silver bullet cure for coronavirus yet, there are some treatment options that help some patients.
Earlier this month, a global study sponsored by the World Health Organization found that remedesivir did not help patients survive or recover quickly, but a U.S. study found that the drug shortens recovery time by about a third for some patients. Is.
Dexamethasone, a steroid, used for some of the most ill Covid-19 patients who need ventilation or oxygen oxygen, may increase their chances of survival after tests show.
Data and test problems
While the mortality rate seems encouraging, there are plenty of warnings to consider. Covid-19 mortality is calculated as the number of deaths out of the total number of infections, which means that if the underlying numbers represent reality.
And in the beginning of the epidemic it was almost certainly not the case, when testing was not widely available and only those who were seriously ill were tested.
“If you only test therapeutic cases, you can underestimate the number of infections if the incidence of asymptomatic infections is large,” Tang said, adding that some studies suggest that the Covid-19 cases About 60% to 70% can be pathological. .
“So reported [case fatality rate] The onset of the epidemic may be disproportionately high but decreases as the epidemic progresses, as we examine more asymptomatic cases to ‘thin’ this apparent mortality rate, ”Tange added.
The main risk, Tang said, is that a more comprehensive examination of the less vulnerable young population could mask the mortality rate in the elderly or those with underlying conditions. “There’s a risk of being cheerful,” he said. “The elderly and vulnerable people will still die from COVID-19 related complications … but this will not be noticed if all age groups with COVID-19 are examined together.
Mortality also varies in different countries. According to Johns Hopkins University, the mortality rate in the 20 most affected countries is now from 10% in Mexico and 0.8% in the Czech Republic. This is partly due to the calculation of their Covid-19 cases. There are different ways. While some counts are only lab-confirmed infections, others include untested suspected cases.
There is also the issue of time lapse. “The average time lag between when we think people are infected and when they can die is about three weeks on average, but that’s what we’re seeing. [infection fatality rate] OK said previous infections remain low even after the increase.
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