Democratic senators are increasingly optimistic about their chances of winning back the Senate majority in November.
Republicans, with a 53-47 seat lead, have spent most of the cycle viewed as the top candidates to hold on to their majority, despite defending 23 seats against the 12 Democrats.
But Democrats have seen their odds increase in recent weeks by President Trump
Donald John Trump Four men accused of trying to tear down Andrew Jackson statue in DC Video shows retired workers signs of social estrangement ahead of Trump Tulsa rally: WaPo Biden criticizes Trump for failing to sanction Russia for the intelligence of the “rewards” of Afghan militants MORECrumbling poll figures amid widespread criticism of his handling of the twin crises of the coronavirus pandemic and widespread anger at police brutality toward African Americans.
“I feel good about them, I do. I mean, certainly, better than a year ago, “said the senator. Tim kaine
Timothy (Tim) Michael Kaine Police reform in limbo after Senate setback Trade groups push lobbying into small business lending program In upcoming COVID-19, target innovation and entrepreneurship MORE (D-Va.), The party’s vice presidential candidate in 2016, asked about the party’s possibilities.
He warned that the period leading up to November would be full of “twists and turns,” but “if the elections were today I would feel … fine.”
The coronavirus pandemic has also crushed what had been a strong economy, undermining Trump’s greatest strength. National polls have shown presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden
Joe BidenBiden criticizes Trump for failing to sanction Russia for Afghan militants’ ‘rewards’ intelligence Why should Biden’s big advantage be concerned? Democrats White House undergoes dramatic change in staff MORE with a double-digit lead over Trump, and a number of Republican senators are suddenly behind in the polls or in neck-and-neck races.
Senator Chris Murphy
Christopher (Chris) Scott Murphy Grridlock has a better chance of reaching a police reform deal House, Senate rider to take advantage of the debate on police reform Skepticism hangs over the police reform deal MORE (D-Conn.) He said he felt “better than I have in the past year and a half” about the party’s chances of regaining control of the Senate, which Democrats lost in the 2014 election.
“The playing field is growing, Trump’s numbers continue to freefall, our candidates are outperforming Republican headlines everywhere. I don’t know if we could be better off in a position than we are today,” Murphy said.
Democrats are also careful to moderate their optimism. They point out that there are still months to go until the elections and nobody knows what will happen in a year that has already witnessed a political trial, a health pandemic that occurs once in a century, an economic recession and a national reckoning with police brutality and systemic racial inequality after the death of George Floyd in police custody.
“I am excited but there are four months and 10 days left,” said the senator. Dick durbin
Richard (Dick) Joseph DurbinMcCarthy Calls For Police Reform Conference Before Vote Senate Panel Votes 21-1 To Endorse IG Justice Measure On Graham’s Objections Police Reform In Limbo After Senate Setback MORE (Ill.), Democrat No. 2 in the Senate.
A national Democratic strategist added that the party had a “very good opportunity” to win back the Senate, putting it at “50-50 or better.”
“There are many warning signs” for Republicans, added the strategist. “I think a big part of how the map has changed in our favor is that the number of states at stake has grown and that has been almost entirely for our benefit.”
Democrats need to win three seats and win the White House or four net seats to have a simple and direct majority. To complicate their calculations, Republicans and politically handicapped see Alabama, where Senator Doug Jones (D-Ala.) Is set for reelection, as a likely rebound in the Republican Party.
Strategists and disabled politicians agree that the main Senate battlefield states, beyond Alabama, are Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, where GOP Sens. Martha McSally
Martha Elizabeth McSally Where things are in 13 battlefield states Democrats lead in three Senate races on the battlefield: Arizona councilman rages after saying “I can’t breathe” at anti-mask rally MORE, Cory Gardner
Cory Scott GardnerHickenlooper leads Coloradooff’s main rival Romanoff in 30 points: poll Democrats spend a lot to support Hickenlooper, a fighter. WHO reports record increase in global cases MORE, Susan Collins
Susan Margaret Collins Overnight Defense: Court of Appeals Rules Use Pentagon Funds for Illegal Border Wall | Esper visits NATO after Trump announces withdrawal from Germany | The Russian intelligence unit reportedly offered rewards for killing coalition troops in Afghanistan. Ernst rejects vote on Trump EPA nominee Overnight Energy: Trump wants to open 82 percent of Alaska’s reserve for drilling | Trump Directs Aid To Maine Lobster Industry Crushed By Tariffs | Bill creates strange bedmates MORE and Thom Tillis
Thomas (Thom) Roland Tillis Where things are in 13 battlefield states Democrats lead in three Senate races on the battlefield: poll The Hill Campaign Report: Progressives feel the urge after night of elementary MORE they are on the ballot.
A New York Times-Siena College poll released late last week found Democratic candidate Mark Kelly leading McSally by 9 percentage points in Arizona and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham leading Tillis by 3 percentage points in North Carolina. A separate Fox News found Tillis losing 2 points, 37 percent versus Cunningham’s 39 percent.
Beyond those states, Montana, Iowa, and Georgia are also seen as potential battlegrounds and opportunities for Democrats. The Cook Political Report recently moved Montana to a “jerk” race, while Iowa and the two Georgia races are rated “skinny Republican.”
Republicans hope to unseat the senator. Gary Peters
Gary Charles PetersDemocrats lead three Senate battles on the battlefield: Congress should reinstate the tax certificate program to encourage diversity of media ownership Black voters need a new Senate as much as a new president MORE (D-Mich.), Although still the favorite to win.
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Policy Center, put Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate back at least 50-50.
“I think it’s fair to say that Republicans started the favored cycle, now they know it looks like 50-50 or maybe even a slight Democratic lead,” he said.
It is not the first time that Democrats have optimistic polls, only to fall short. They were widely expected to regain the Senate and retain the White House in 2016, only for Trump to bring a big surprise. Democrats won two seats that year in the Senate, not enough to take the majority.
“The reality is that the polls are four months old,” said Durbin. “I was thinking about voting in my original House race for four weeks that made me lose terribly, and I won. So you are a fool if you do an early survey and fall asleep on it. ”
But the Democratic mood is increasing as poll after poll shows bad news for Trump. The New York Times-Siena College poll found Biden leading Trump by 14 points in a hypothetical showdown, 50 percent to 36 percent.
“Whatever Joe Biden is doing, he should continue to do it,” said Durbin.
“If that means working in your basement in Delaware, then so be it. I know it is frustrating. He said he is frustrated by that. But in maintaining a certain level of decorum and respect, he is in such sharp contrast to the president that I think that is part of the reason why the poll numbers are on their way, “he added.
A Republican party national strategist said Republicans should turn the contest into an election between the president and Biden rather than a referendum on Trump.
“I think the more this race becomes a contrast between the vision of the president and that of Joe Biden, the better it will be for all Republicans,” said the strategist. “It cannot be a referendum. A referendum on anyone is never ideal, it should be a choice. ”
The numbers have set off alarms among some Republicans on Capitol Hill, who have been publicly signaling Trump to change course.
Senator John Thune
John Randolph ThuneKarl Rove says Trump is “behind” in presidential race Gridlock looks at the chances of a Republican Party police reform deal: Trump needs a new plan MORE (SD), the No. 2 Republican senator, told reporters that while polls fluctuate, the current numbers were a “message that there needs to be a change in strategy.”
“I think at this point, obviously, Trump has a problem with the middle of the electorate, with the independents, and it’s the people who are going to decide a national election,” Thune said.
“I think it can get them back, but it will probably require not only a message that addresses substance and politics, but I think a message that conveys perhaps a different tone,” he added.
Senator Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Olin Graham Grridlock has a better chance of reaching a police reform deal Jaime Harrison: Republican Party police reform bill “doesn’t go far enough” Clayton of the SEC refuses to fire Manhattan attorney to replace MORE (RS.C.), a close ally of Trump who is ready for reelection, added that there was “concern” in the country that is affecting the president and urged Trump to focus on policy differences with Biden.
“As we get closer to the elections, when we have our conventions, when we have our debates, the political differences will begin to merge,” he said. “What I would tell you is to talk about where the country’s politics are going to lead wisely, how that differs from where Biden would go.”
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