Democratic poll shows Madison Cawthorn narrowly leading North Carolina


  • 25-year-old Republican congressional candidate Madison Cawthorn has to contend with a tougher fight than expected in the race for former Rep. To replace Mark Meadows in the 11th Congressional District of North Carolina.
  • A poll conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Commission shows Cawthorn leading his Democratic opponent Moe Davis Davis by five percentage points.
  • Cawthorn, a staunch Conservative and Trump supporter, has positioned himself as a major bridge between the GOP leadership and the next generation of Republicans.
  • Visit the Business Insider website for more stories.

Twenty-five-year-old Republican congressional candidate Madison Cawthorn has faced a tougher fight than expected in the race for former Rep. To replace Mark Meadows in the 11th Congressional District of North Carolina.

A new internal poll conducted by the Democratic Congress Campaign Commission (DCCC) and exclusively shared with Insider shows Cawthorn leading his Democratic opponent, with retired Colonel Morris “Moe” Davis of Air Force, by just five percentage points, 46% to 41% , in the district, with 6% supporting other candidates and 7% not deciding.

The survey, conducted 5-6 August, included 500 likely voters for general elections with a combination of automated and live calls and has an error margin of ± 4.4 percentage points.

Meadows resigned earlier this year to serve as chief of staff to Trump. Cawthorn, who turned 25 on August 1, made national headlines when he defeated broker Lynda Bennett, Meadows’ hand-picked candidate for the seat, which was also backed by President Donald Trump, with more than 30 points in a June 23 primary runoff.

Cawthorn, an eighth-generation North Carolina, became a motivational speaker and real estate investor after a car accident in 2014 left him at the age of 18 lame.

Cawthorn, with his swift, shrewd use of social media, has styled himself as a solid, Trump-minded conservative, and he often highlights his support for the Second Amendment, religious freedom and opposition to abortion, socialism, and the political left.

Cawthorn, who would have been the youngest member of the U.S. House if elected, also positioned himself as a key bridge between the GOP leadership and the next generation of Republicans in Generation Z, making appearances on Fox News and interviews conducted with leading conservative figures, e.g. Glenn Beck and Charlie Kirk.

“I think Republicans have done such a bad job of messaging the last few decades,” Cawthorn recently told the National Journal, citing border security and immigration as an example. “There are so many things that Republicans want to do actually well, but they say it in a way that does not feel right. Democrats make you feel good about what you vote for, but for them it’s all a sign of virtue.”

Davis, 59, is a retired Air Force colonel who had a 25-year career in the Army. He has worked on national security issues under both the Bush and Obama administrations, including as Chief Prosecutor at Guantanamo Bay, and more recently he has been a Howard University Law Professor.

An avid Trump critic on social media, Davis highlights the need to expand affordable health care, improve education and invest in infrastructure in West North Carolina in its campaign platform.

The 11th District of North Carolina is located in the western part of the state. It has traditionally rewarded Republicans, with Trump providing it with 17 points, 57% to 40% over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Meadows winning by re-election with more than 20 points in 2018.

A court has ordered the North Carolina legislature to redraw its entire congressional cards in 2019, ruling that the previous Republican card was unfair. In addition to creating two new likely Democratic districts, redistributing others, such as the 11th District, is somewhat more favorable to Democrats.

While the 11th is still solid in the Republican column, the district’s all-new boundaries now encompass the entire Buncombe County, which is home to the Democratic-leaning city of Asheville and voted for Clinton by 14 points in 2016.

The DCCC poll showed Davis leading non-white voters 68% to 6% and leading voters under 40 by four points, 42% to 38%. Cawthorn leads Davis by independence by four points, 43% to 39%, among white voters by ten points, 49% to 39%, and voters over the age of 65 by eight points, 49% to 41%.

At the presidential level in the 11th District, the DCCC found Trump leading Democratic nominee Joe Biden with two points, 48% to 46%, and Trump’s approval above water by just one point, 50% to 49%.

Madison Cawthorn

Madison Cawthorn

Screenshot via Madison Cawthorn / YouTube


The DCCC question was carried out before Jezebel published a critical piece on Cawthorn. On public data, the website reported that he has been investing in only one property since August and his resume has blown up as a homemade investor of real estate.

Jezebel also accused Cawthorn of making overtures for white supremacy, specifically on Instagram photos that Cawthorn posted of a trip in 2017 to Hitler’s vacation spot, the Eagles Nest at Berchtesgaden. He wrote that seeing the historical site, “has been on my bucket list for a while, it has not disappointed. Strange to hear so much laughter and share such a good time with my brother, where only 79 years ago a very evil laugh and well-shared times with his countrymen. “

Cawthorn vehemently denies supporting his caption Nazism on Twitter, repeated that Hitler and the Nazis represented “one of the greatest ailments in human history,” and writing, “The only bigots in this race are my opponents and the weary members of the media who would try a disabled man, like myself, and connect me with a movement that would have destroyed me.”

Jezebel also linked Cawthorn to white supremacy by noting that his real estate company is called SPQR Holdings, a Latin term co-opted by some white supremacist groups, and pointed out that Cawthorn was sitting in front of a Betsy Ross flag, which some consider glorifying the regime of slavery, in its TV appearances.

Cawthorn said in a statement to Asheville-based non-profit newsroom AVL Watchdog that he “rejected the name SPQR” as a term for Rome “and” a warning to my generation from the ages against tyranny and authoritarianism, “because of all attempts by right-wing extremists to “hijack” it.

Robby Soave of Reason Magazine claimed that while the title of Eagles Nest Instagram was “a truly cringeworthy remark”, Jezebel’s attempts to portray Cawthorn as sympathetic or supportive of open white supremacist extremism were at best unconvincing and a bit of a smirk.

On the issues of race and identity, however, Cawthorn has strongly opposed affirmative action and the idea of ​​compensating the descendants of formerly addicted Americans, arguing that they can “give his hypothetical future biracial children” a just mindset. “

In an interview with Blue Ridge Public Radio, Cawthorn described the Asheville City Council resolution approving a repair program as “divisive,” saying “600,000 Americans gave their lives to free slaves and you will tell me it’s not enough. ? ” He also claimed that liberals “want people in high school to be able to come up with scores and elementary schools simply because they are African-Americans.”

Chris Cooper, a professor of political science at Western North University University, told AVL Watchdog that while registered Republicans are not much like Democrats in the neighborhood, Cawthorn will still have to expand his profession beyond the conservative base.

“His base will at least vote for him. But the largest group of voters in the 11th [congressional district] is not affiliated with either political party and they could be alienated by the hard-right rhetoric, “Cooper said.