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Mike Conley (early termination option), Anthony Davis (player option), DeMar DeRozan (player option), Andre Drummond (player option), Gordon Hayward (player option) and Brandon Ingram (restricted) are the only big and big names capable of hitting the market, and none of them are shaping up to be goners.
Davis didn’t force his way to the Los Angeles Lakers just to leave them, and the New Orleans Pelicans wouldn’t have kept Ingram past the trade deadline if they weren’t prepared to maximize him. Conley, DeRozan and Hayward have zero businesses opting for their contracts. It will take at least two seasons to get the money back that they are scheduled to take home.
A low capitalization market also eliminates a group of players by default, i.e. Davis Bertans, Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl harrell, Marcus Morris, Fred VanVleet and Christian wood. Higher prices make their range of results too shallow for us to pretend they’ll have dark horse suitors. (The signature and exchange scenarios could override this sentiment.)
Restricted free agents are in the same boat. Cap space is needed to beat the headlines, and few teams have the capital to enter a bidding war. This is not the space to speak Malik Beasley, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Chris Boucher, Kris Dunn, De’Anthony Melton (Early riser), Jakob Poeltl and Dario Saric, most of which will go nowhere.
The same goes for many player options among those who are not stars. Tim Hardaway Jr., Rodney Hood, Kelly Olynyk, Otto Porter Jr., Tony Snell et al. they are more likely to run out of the last year of their contracts. They, along with everyone who falls under this umbrella, will not make cameos here. Player options must be a coin toss situation (and obviously belong to a player who generates intense interest) to make the cut.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope it exists in its own bubble. He’s played well enough to possibly turn down his player choice, but he shares an agent with LeBron James, and the Lakers will have all of Bird’s rights. His entry into free agency would be, from my point of view, a formality.
Also, with all due respect, I cannot speak of Carmelo Anthony. His score is efficient enough to be listed next season, and sticking with the Portland Trail Blazers should be the priority, but his pricing isn’t a big mystery. It will be a surprise if you get more (or even up to) the mini MLE.
Similar restraint is shown with selected large men, especially Aron Baynes, Dwight Howard, Tristan Thompson and Hassan Whiteside. They are all entry-level players at number 5, but the center position is oversaturated, and it’s hard to imagine any of them accumulating full MLE money in this limit climate.
And finally, Derrick Jones Jr. It was the harshest exclusion. The Miami Heat’s 2021 cap leaves its future firmly in the lurch, but this doesn’t seem like the summer when teams will open up their piggy banks for non-shooting wings.
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