However, others privately acknowledge that if Brussels had wanted to make the tastiest pill for an American audience, they could have added a sugar coating. “In the past, I can see that we might not have included China to keep the United States happy,” says an EU diplomat who is not authorized to speak about how the decision was made.
One of the ways that Brussels believes it can distance itself from DC is by interacting with China as a strategic and economic partner, lessening its dependence on one of the world superpowers by balancing its relationship with the other.
“Knowing what we know about the China data, how it has behaved during the pandemic and the White House stance, I think in another world we would have kept them away,” says the diplomat. That other world you are referring to is not simply the world before Trump took office.
A Brussels official who works on EU foreign policy but is not authorized to speak on the record said that alienation from Europe as a geopolitical priority began under former United States President Barack Obama.
“Obama did not have as close an interest in the Middle East as previous presidents, which geographically is a more European problem. And he was shifting his priorities from Europe to China and Asia,” said the official.
However, observers to the alliance have long accepted that it has strained in the past four years, and it will worsen further if Donald Trump defeats former Vice President Joe Biden in this year’s US election. “Trump considers the EU, especially Germany, an economic and trade rival, which means that tensions can be expected in the event that he gets a second term,” says Velina Tchakarova of the Austrian Institute for European Policy and Security.
She says that as the EU is taking steps to “build greater autonomy in the field of security and defense,” Trump is trying to “undermine such efforts through his attacks on European NATO members, as well as on through economic and commercial measures. “
The Brussels official explains that Trump’s “breakdown of multilateralism” in major international affairs such as Iran, along with the US taking “less responsibility for European security” has accelerated European thinking to move away from the United States. and “do our thing in the world”. stage.”
This characterization of a hostile US administration that struggles to avoid working with Europeans is one that the EU diplomat recognizes. “The problem is that DC officials who want to work with Europe, while in contact, do not have the government’s mandate to participate seriously. They have endured as long as they can, but if we have a second Trump Term, then we are in real trouble. “
This, according to Tchakarova, is the reason why “the EU institutions and the leaders of the member states expect Joe Biden to be elected in November … he is in favor of multilateralism and the expectation is that it will strengthen ties between states United and Europe. “
CNN reached out to numerous officials from EU institutions and diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic to comment. Most declined to comment; several admitted that they believed this to be the case. A European diplomat said: “We will dance with whoever is on the dance floor, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that cooperation between the EU and the US is currently underperforming.”
When asked to comment on a possible EU pivot away from its historical ties to the United States, a State Department spokesman said: “The United States and the EU share a strong and lasting partnership based on common democratic values and governance. , respect for human rights and the rule of law, deep economic ties and a commitment to transatlantic prosperity and security. This long-standing partnership is vital as we coordinate in a host of international efforts. “
However, a possible Biden victory would not provide a quick fix for the transatlantic partnership. “The question is not really whether the relationship can return to where it was, but whether we can persuade the United States to rejoin the Western order,” says the EU diplomat.
“The US and EU geopolitical pivots in Asia, the Middle East and trade have already started respectively. The difference right now is that we believe the West should be spinning as one.”
And even if Biden were to return to Obama-era politics in Europe, there is no guarantee that within four years he will not be replaced by someone even more radical than Trump. “The fundamental changes that are taking place in the United States are likely to continue and we have to adapt, making the best of the relationship we can. These changes are structural and not based on just one person,” says the Brussels official.
Of course, none of this means that the transatlantic alliance will cease to be important. It will remain central to what the West represents, and the United States will always be a more important ally for Europe than China. Furthermore, the EU’s grand plans to further engage with China were affected by the Covid-19 outbreak.
However, that fading layer of heat, with Europe seeking a new place on the world stage as the global role of the US becomes inherently more unpredictable, can only be seen as good news for those against that these historical western powers came together in a short time ago.
.
