Covid – 19: UK action could reach 1,000,000 cases a day by October – Vala Lens


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Media CitationChief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Valens says steps must be taken to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

The government’s chief scientific adviser has warned that the UK could see more than 1,000,000 new coronavirus cases a day in mid-October.

A month later, “about 200 deaths a day will be expected,” said Sir Patrick Vallans.

The prime minister is scheduled to chair a meeting of the Cobra Emergency Committee on Tuesday morning, followed by a statement in the House of Commons.

On Sunday, a further 3,899 daily cases and 18 deaths were reported in the UK.

Chief Medical Adviser, Prof. Speaking on Downing Street with Chris Whitney, Sir Patrick insisted that the figures given were no predictions, but added: “At the moment we feel that the epidemic is almost doubling every seven days.

“If, and it’s quite big if, but if it doesn’t continue, and this keeps increasing, it doubles every seven days … if it continues, you’ll end up with about 1,000,000 cases every day in mid-October. .

“Fifty thousand cases a day are expected to follow a month, so in mid-November, more than 200 deaths a day.

“So the challenge is to make sure that the double time doesn’t last seven days.

“It needs speed, it needs action and it needs enough to be able to bring it down.”

Prof Whitty added that if the case continues to double every seven days as Sir Patrick decides, the UK could “move very quickly from a very small number to a really large number because of that deadly process”.

“So we’ve literally turned an angle in a bad sense, albeit only recently,” he said.

Prof. Whitty and Sir Patrick also said:

  • The increasing number of cases cannot be blamed for the increase in testing because there is also an “increase in the positivity of the tests”.
  • An estimated 700,000 people in the UK are currently diagnosed with the disease – and around 20,000,000 are catching it every day (based on ONS studies).
  • Less than 8% of the population is infected, although the figure could be as high as 17% in London
  • Rising transmission is “the six-month problem we have to face collectively.”
  • Despite contradictory claims, the virus is not milder than April
  • It is possible that “some vaccines may be available for certain groups before the end of the year” but “the first part of next year” is more likely.

The government’s most senior science and medical advisers are clearly concerned about the increase in cases seen in recent weeks.

By October mid-October the warning of about 50,000 cases a day is complete. We’re not sure how many cases peak in spring (because there was very limited testing on the spot) although some estimates put it at 100,000.

However, they also suffered to point out that it is not a prediction.

Even among the government’s own advisers we disagree on whether what we want is the beginning of lethal growth or just a gradual increase in cases, which you can expect at this time of year as the respiratory virus spreads beyond that. Reopening society.

Instead, what was clearly stated was a clear social message. Even people who are not at high risk of complications, they say, should play their part in preventing the spread of the virus because if it does spread, difficult decisions will need to be made that will have profound social consequences.

But the big unanswered question is what ministers will do next. There is talk that more sanctions will be introduced, but that is far from certain.

There are some things in our favor that were not in the spring. Better treatment is now available for those who are very sick, while the government is in a better position to protect vulnerable groups.

Should ministers wait and see what happens? Or should they crack early, knowing it will have a negative impact in other ways?

Prof Whitty also said that cases were increasing at different rates in different parts of the UK, and that the evolving situation was “all our problems” despite some age groups being more affected than others.

He added that evidence from other countries showed that the infections were “not just living in younger age groups”, but “moving towards age bands”.

He said the death rate from Covid-19 was “significantly higher” than the seasonal flu, which killed 7,000 annually or 20,000 in a bad year.

Four more counties in north-west England, West Yorkshire, the Midlands and South Wales will face more local sanctions from Tuesday, the briefing said.

Additional lockdown sanctions will be “almost certainly” placed in Scotland in the first few days, Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to speak later with leaders of the perverted administration.

“Hopefully this will be with the alliance of the four countries, but it will have to happen without it if necessary,” Sturgeon said.

Welsh Health Minister Wa Gat Gehing added: “It is possible that UK-wide action will be taken, but this will require all four governments to exercise their responsibilities and responsibilities.”

It is not a question of “if”.

Downing Street will have to introduce additional restrictions to try to slow the dramatic resurgence of coronavirus.

You should have drowned in just a minute or two from the sober briefing of the government’s most senior doctor and scientist on Monday morning.

What has not yet been settled is exactly what it is, exactly when and indeed, where these restrictions will be.

Here’s what it’s important to know:

The government is not currently considering new lockdowns across the country.

The Prime Minister is not telling everyone to stay home from the Downing Street desk in March.

The ministers have no intention of closing schools again.

Or, for now, they’re planning to shut down every business except non-essentials.

What is possible is some kind of additional limitation of our vast hospitality sector.

Read more from Laura here.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister held a meeting in Downing Street with Prof Whitty, Chancellor Ishii Sunak and Health Secretary Matt Hancock to discuss possible steps for England.

Asked about reports of disagreements among cabinet ministers over whether to impose a second lockdown, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told the BBC Breakfast.

“Everyone has recognized that … there is a tension between the virus and the need to take us and protect the economy and the livelihoods of the people.”

‘Damage to our economy’

Labor, meanwhile, has urged the government to avoid another national lockdown.

Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said: “This rapid growth of the infection was not inevitable, but the result of the government’s incompetence and failure to put in place an adequate testing system.

“Labor’s priority is that there should be a national effort to prevent another national lockdown.

“The government must do everything possible to prevent another lockdown, which will cause incredible damage to our economy and the well-being of our people.”