The largest study of the infection in England suggests that growth in coronavirus cases may be slow.
A team from Imperial College Ledge London analyzed a sample of 84,000 randomly selected people from across the country.
They said that since measures including the reproduction number of the virus, R number, “inclusion of the six rules” were introduced, it seems to have decreased.
However, they warn that one in every 200 people is infected.
The reaction study is very impressive, both because of its size and because it gives an advanced picture of how the virus is spreading. The last samples used in the analysis were collected as recently as Saturday.
It was a previous reaction report that the infection was found to be doubling every seven to eight days in late August and early September.
This, in turn, warned that if this trend continues, there could be 50,000 cases a day by mid-October.
The research group then estimated the R number – the number of people passing on the virus to each infected person, on average – was 1.7.
The latest analysis of swab samples collected between September 19 and 26 indicates that the R number has dropped to around 1.1 – although the exact figure is uncertain.
The researchers said it was the first indication that measures such as the “six rule”, and public concern about the coronavirus, could “affect transmission”.
Paul L. Elliott, a professor at Imperial College Lodge London, told me: “This is a very critical period, we know you are in a deadly phase of filing a case very quickly.
“Additional rates seem to be declining, R numbers seem to have come down.
“Obviously no one wants a complete lockdown, but if we pay attention to the public health messages on social distance, hand washing, face covering and testing and isolation, I think we can stop the virus.”
However, the period when cases used to double every week is now very much around the virus.
Professor Elliott added, “What we have found is a massive increase in the number of viruses measuring one in 200 people walking the streets a day,” Professor Elliott added.
As the study tests people randomly, not everyone who tests positive will continue to develop symptoms.
However, this increase was noted in all regions of the country and in all age groups.
The infection rate was highest among people aged 18 to 24, with the virus testing positive for every 100 tests.
Infection rates were very low between the ages of 65 and over, but have increased sevenfold since the last report (from 0.04% to 0.29%).
“They’re all small people and the idea that‘ it’s nice ’isn’t just the case,’ Professor Elliott said.
This is one of the many sources of information – along with office fees for national statistics, disease modeling groups, hospital data and NHS testing and traces – that rely on the government to assess the situation.
‘No Reason for Satisfaction’
On Wednesday, Sir Patrick Vance Lens, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said: “Right now we have no control over this.
“There is no reason for satisfaction here.”
The UK’s latest coronavirus figures show there have been a further 7,108 cases and another 71 deaths.
Last week, Mr Johnson introduced restrictions for pubs, bars and restaurants in England, including a 10pm closing time, similar advertisements in Scotland and Wales, and a 15-person limit on marriages.
Since then, local lockdowns have been implemented, including in the north-east of England, where house mixing is banned.
Lawmakers are now hoping to impose additional sanctions on Liverpool, after some lawmakers met with Care Minister Helen Whitley.
With a 16% positivity rate, cases have increased in the city.
The BBC Newsnight was told that the measures would be tougher than places in the North East and could include a ban on eating and drinking.
Other MPs, meanwhile, said the case was “attractive” for regular testing of all NHS staff in England.
The Health and Social Care Committee said it should be introduced as early as possible before winter.
The government and NHS England told the committee they wanted to bring regular examinations of employees, but any plans were based on available capacity.
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