There are still a significant number of unknowns about the coronavirus – we’re struggling to understand what influences the severity of some cases, why other people remain asymptomatic, and why most people experience only a subset of their total list of symptoms. But one thing has been clear from the data: the elderly are at the highest risk with COVID-19. A disproportionate number of fatalities has reached people over the age of 65.
As such, many countries have implemented strategies focused on minimizing risks to older people, and calls have been made to the public focused on the protection of older family members. But are the elders doing their part to protect themselves? Not really, according to a study that analyzed survey data from dozens of countries.
Following the advice?
The work was carried out by Jean-François Daoust, researcher at the University of Edinburgh. Daoust took advantage of a large collection of survey data obtained by YouGov and Imperial College London. The data set is huge. Although Daoust had to exclude India and China, where the surveyed population was not representative of the country’s demographics, it still remained with more than 72,000 people in 27 countries (Africa is not represented and the only South American country is Brazil). Their main conclusions are drawn from the data as a whole, Daoust also performed analyzes at the country and region level to look for differences in attitudes.
His basic approach to data is quite simple. It addresses various questions in the survey as ways to determine whether people follow the advice of public health experts. Then check to see if the rate of compliance with this health tip changes with age.
Questions asked in the survey include questions about whether people are willing to isolate themselves if they experience symptoms, and whether they would do so if asked to do so by a government official or health expert. There were also a series of questions about specific behaviors, such as wearing a face mask or inviting guests. Daoust combined them into a behavior index and analyzed them individually.
What would he expect? In an ideal world, older people would be aware of their high risk and would act accordingly, so we would see increased compliance with health advice if we plotted it based on age. But it is unclear if Daoust is optimistic about seeing that pattern. “If my grandmother were alive,” she writes in the introduction, “it would have been very difficult to convince her not to go out and play cards at the social club, even if the head of government (who he voted for!) Urging the old people to stay home. “
Neutral at best
As expected, the willingness to isolate oneself with the onset of symptoms steadily increased with age. That is, until he was 75 years old, at which point he took a sudden downward trend. (The data for people over 80 is questionable, as very few were included in this survey.) People were more likely to accept self-isolation when asked to do so by a health expert or the government, even at an early age. But the willingness to do so gradually increased to the age of 60, at which point it disintegrated.
Beyond self-isolation, are those most at risk involved in self-protective behaviors? Yes and no. If you average over all behaviors, the answer is a resounding no, since the trend with age is indistinguishable from the plane. But there are some specific behaviors with clear, positive trends: avoiding public transportation and small gatherings, as well as having no guests. But people make up for it by willingness to wear masks, which is highest in the 20-30 age group and submerges thereafter. That turned out to be the strongest age association in the survey data.
To verify whether these results were robust, Daoust re-did the analysis multiple times, checking for things like how long in the pandemic different countries were surveyed and looking for differences between countries or within countries. Neither of these changed the results significantly.
This does not appear to be a matter of awareness of their state. Daoust cites a Pew survey of US residents that the elderly are more likely to view COVID-19 as a serious crisis and a threat to people’s health. Given the frequency with which public health authorities emphasize this in other countries, it is likely that the United States is not unique in this regard. However, these individuals do not appear to be acting on this knowledge.
With the pop-up video of crowded bars and swimming areas, there has been a small public perception that America’s woes are being fueled by a younger generation indifferent to protecting its elders. While there is one element that is happening (most measures increase with age and peak in people near retirement), the results make clear that the problem goes far beyond the US. And that the elderly are not necessarily interested in helping themselves.
PLOS ONE, 2020. DOI: 10.1371 / journal.pone.0235590 (About DOIs).
