COVID-19 San Francisco: projection shows serious situation for coronavirus hospitalizations, deaths in late 2020


SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) – San Francisco Mayor London Breed and Director of Public Health Dr. Grant Colfax shared a grim look at the current state of the coronavirus in San Francisco.

City leaders delved deep into the San Francisco COVID-19 data. The city has seen 4,950 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 50 related deaths. Almost 1,000 of those cases have been diagnosed in the past two weeks, and the southeastern part of the city has been hit especially hard.

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“We actually squashed the curve, but now it’s starting to go up again,” said Dr. Colfax, who explained that the virus would have burned in the city if it had remained at the low reproductive rate in May, which was .85.

Right now, researchers believe that for every person infected with COVID-19 in San Francisco, he or she spreads it to 1.25 people on average. It may not sound like much, but that infection rate has the potential to land San Francisco in a setting like New.
York saw in March and April.

“This is the slide that keeps me awake at night,” said Dr. Colfax as he presented the data. At the current rate of spread, the city is projected to see 830 hospitalizations by the end of the year.

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“Let’s think about that for a minute,” he said. “In April, we reached a maximum of 94 hospitalizations.”

The worst case scenario shows that hospitalizations reach a maximum of 6,000 by the end of the year.

Dr. Colfax also shared data on the city’s increasing hospitalization and ICU numbers, which he said are concerning. In addition to that, San Francisco hospitals have received ICU patients transferred from San Quentin State Prison in Marin County. Although Dr. Colfax said San Francisco would be on the rise, regardless of San Quentin patients.

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Deaths are also projected to increase dramatically. Although the city has only seen 50 deaths so far, at the current rate of spread, that number will likely rise to 890 without a change in course. In the worst case, deaths could be around 3,000 before the end of the year.

“Each of us has the ability to bend that curve, we saw it when we took refuge in place,” Deputy Health Officer Dr. Susan Philip said Monday in an interview with Kate Larsen, an ABC7 journalist.

Dr. Philip says that San Francisco’s slow reopening and current pause have been very deliberate. “We prefer to pause and then back off.”

Another surprising stat shared by Colfax on Monday: 49.7% of all diagnosed cases are San Francisco Hispanic / Latino residents, meaning the virus is disproportionately affecting the Hispanic / Latino community in San Francisco, which accounts for 15% of the population of the city.

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To avoid the end-of-the-world scenarios outlined by Dr. Colfax, the city emphasizes the need for people of social distance to wear face covers and avoid congregating indoors. The city is also indefinitely pausing to reopen indoor restaurants, bars, gyms, and more.

“Always assume that we are being exposed or that we could be infected, and I think we have to cover our faces,” said Dr. Philip.

Speaking about a slide, the health department called it “hope,” Dr. Colfax said he hopes San Francisco will be part of the vaccine trials that will begin in August. The city will involve the most exposed communities.

In Mayor Breed’s first camera interview since testing negative for COVID-19, San Francisco Breed said she was furious to discover that someone with the virus had “endangered” her and others’ health by attending an event. public this week.

The mayor spoke to ABC7’s Kristen Sze on Friday afternoon about “Getting Answers,” covering her brush with the virus, the San Francisco path to reopening, and the city’s COVID-19 testing capabilities.

Breed reiterated the responsibility that falls on San Francisco residents during the pandemic. “Let’s face it: We are living in COVID for the next 18 months. Therefore, we have to make adjustments to protect each other,” said Breed.

The San Francisco Zoo reopened Monday morning. Monday’s San Francisco reopening phase was supposed to include indoor restaurants and open-air bars, but that remains on hold.

The city also announced on Friday that nail and beauty salons, tattoo parlors and massage parlors will be in the next group considered for reopening.

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