If you go to a bar in Denver, how likely is it that at least one person is infected with the coronavirus? What about a 100-person wedding in Baltimore? Or a Thanksgiving dinner with 25 guests in Los Angeles?
The answers to these questions – and many more – can be found for free, intuitive and now Peer review COVID-19 risk assessment planning tool. Created by a team of researchers at Georgia Tech, Tool Designed to help policy makers, event organizers, and individuals in the United States, and around the world, the risks associated with assembling different sizes are easily understood.
(And if you’re curious, by November 9, you have a 78% chance of meeting someone with an active coronavirus infection at a Denver bar, a 68% chance at a wedding in Baltimore, and about a 25% chance at a LA Thanksgiving meal.)
The COVID-19 risk assessment tool was conceived in March Joshua Waitz, A quantitative biologist at Georgia Tech who wanted an easy way to determine the risk of participating in events of different sizes at different locations.
The first recurrence was a graph that took into account the number of infections per capita in any given county, along with the size of the proposed event. Later, the same information was overlaid on the map to make it easier for users to understand.
For example, at a friend’s White Elephant Party, to find out if you might be infected with a coronavirus, open the tool, move the slider on the left side of the map to the number of people you expect to attend (say 15), then outline the county where the event will take place. Hover the cursor (let’s say Santa Cruz).
The tool will tell you that if a reunion had taken place today, there is an 8% chance that an innovation would bring the virus with a pair of socks.
The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool allows users to adjust the size of the event for a better estimate of the risk involved.
(Joshua Weiss and Cleo Andres / Georgia Institute of Technology)
What he can’t tell you is whether the 8% chance of sharing space with someone capable of infecting you is too high to justify your presence.
That decision is up to you.
“In a way it’s like a weather map,” he said Cleo Andreas, Professor of city and regional planning and interactive computing at Georgia Tech, who helped Weitz become a tool. “He can tell you what the risk of rain is, but he can’t tell you if you get wet. It depends on if you carry an umbrella, or if you choose not to go out. “
The map is updated daily with the latest information on how many cases have been extended in each county in the United States. Therefore, an 8% chance of coping with an infected person on Monday could be a 12% risk by Friday.
The instrument also assumes that the actual number of cases of coronavirus is 10 times higher than the official reports, as not all cases will be caught by tests.
The Covid-19 risk assessment tool went live in July, and the makers reported that 2 million people had visited the site by September.
In addition to individual users, the research team was approached by the Georgia Municipal Essen, which represents all mayors in the state, as well as organizations such as Special Olympics that use it to assess the risk of hosting events.
Andreas decided to go to a small party last week using the tool himself. She was invited to see the election result with five friends – a total of five people gathered – and she was suspicious as she has not met with many people outside her home since the shutdown began. After plugging in the parameters, she learned that there is a chance% chance that one of the five election viewers would be infected with the virus and could pass it on to others.
Ris% risk is low but not low enough to satisfy Andreas, who has been extremely cautious since the epidemic began. Until then she hadn’t thought four other friends were professors like her who lived mostly alone and in the last eight months she hadn’t socialized so much with others that she decided the risk was acceptable, at least for her. (No tool will be able to tell you that information – yet).
As we move into the holiday season, Andrews said he hopes more people will use the COVID-19 risk assessment tool to invite local friends and family to their celebrations, and to see if they travel to different parts of the country. Will help make a decision. – or within the same state – is at risk.
“I can see a lot of people saying, ‘It’s been a tough year, and we really need to be with friends and family.’ “I get it, and I hear it, but the consequences will come.”
