COVID-19 is more deadly than the Spanish flu and 1918 seasonal flu

The claim: experts exaggerate the gravity of COVID-19 death rates compared to Spanish flu and seasonal flu

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Many claims have tried to compare the COVID-19 pandemic with previous pandemics, such as the Spanish flu in 1918 or the swine flu in 2009. Others have tried to remove the new symptoms of coronavirus and rate of infection as related to the seasonal flu.

USA TODAY debunked the claim that in the first year of that pandemic there were 56 million fewer cases of COVID-19 than of the H1N1 virus, such as swine flu.

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Two other claims suggesting a second Spanish flu pandemic wave had a higher death toll than the first were also found to be inaccurate.

A broadly shared meme has a slightly modified version of the claim. One Facebook post from the meme of late July has been shared more than 50,000 times. USA TODAY reached out to the poster for comment, and he responded with more statistics that could not be independently verified.

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Digging into the figures

In the mother, health experts are accused of overreacting to COVID-19 compared to the 1918 H1N1 pandemic (the Spanish flu) and the seasonal flu. The meme begins with the line “How big is 1%?” It then provides statistics for each pandemic and seasonal flu, including world population, number of infected people and death toll compared to world population.

The meme says that 50 million people, 5.26% of an estimated world population of 950 million, died from the Spanish flu, then says: “Experts: TRAGIC EVENT!”

While it is true that some 50 million people died from the Spanish flu, according to an estimate by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Global Change Data Lab in 1918 put the estimated world population at 1.8 billion. An article in 2006 in the health journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, published by the CDC, cites a global mortality rate of 2.5%. The pandemic lasted two years, from spring 1918 to spring 1920.

Is COVID-19 worse than the Spanish flu of 1918? Study shows that deaths in New York doubled in early months

In 2018, 650,000 of an estimated 7.5 billion people, or 0.009%, died from seasonal flu worldwide. Experts called this a “typical year”, according to the meme.

This part of the meme is accurate. Every year, 3 million to 5 million people worldwide contract the seasonal flu, resulting in about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths, according to the World Health Organization. The WHO estimates that the annual global mortality rate is less than 0.1%, independent UK fact-checker Full Fact reported.

The meme says at least 488,729 of an estimated 7.7 billion people have died from COVID-19. There is no date associated with the mother, but the worldwide death toll reached more than half a million on June 28, USA TODAY reported.

“1% of the Pop of the World now would be 77 million dead. Now if 5.26% is TRAGIC and .009 is not a BIG DEAL, what do we do then!” the meme ends.

Global deaths from COVID-19 reached 776,000 in mid-August, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.

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Is COVID-19 more deadly then Spanish flu as a seasonal flu?

A report published August 13 in the medical journal JAMA Network Open compared the two months after the first recorded death of COVID-19 in New York City with the deadliest two months of the Spanish flu pandemic.

Researchers found that although there were more deaths per 100,000 people during the peak of the Spanish flu, the toll was still comparable to deaths during the COVID-19 outbreak.

The difference lies in baseline mortality rates. People died in 1918 of causes unrelated to H1N1, due to poor hygiene, public health and safety. Therefore, researchers found the relative increase in the early period of the COVID-19 epidemic to be “substantially greater” than the peak of the Spanish flu pandemic.

“This time – with more advanced medical care and public health systems bringing the death toll down to 50 a month per 100,000 in the same dates from March to May the previous three years – the death toll squared,” USA TODAY reported Aug. 13.

Experts determine COVID-19 to be more lethal than seasonal flu. There is a vaccine for seasonal flu, which sustains cases; there is no vaccine for COVID-19.

The COVID-19 death rate per 100 cases in the U.S. was 3.1% on Thursday, and the approximately 0.05% mortality rate is one of the highest in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University. Only Peru, Spain, Chile and Brazil are higher.

The CDC reported that the annual mortality rate for seasonal flu is about 0.01%, with 12,000-61,000 deaths per year.

According to the latest data available from the CDC, COVID-19 has a total infection ratio of 0.0065. That ratio is defined as the proportion of deaths among all infected persons. The percentage transmission of asymptomatic carriers is 50%. The case’s global death toll – the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases – reached 3.5% on Thursday, according to the Global Change Data Lab.

For further comparison, 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died of H1N1 infection during the 2009 pandemic, according to the CDC. Americans count 12,469. More than 174,000 have died from COVID-19 in the US, according to the Coronavirus Resource Center. A vaccine for swine flu became available about five months after the first confirmed U.S. case, USA TODAY reported.

However, the Global Change Data Lab stated that an in-depth COVID-19 mortality analysis would include the chance of death for an infected person, rather than the death toll from infection. The total number of cases and deaths are required to accurately calculate this rate. A number of factors, including businesses, make it difficult for researchers to determine the total case number.

USA TODAY found the equation presented in the mothers just with numbers is not fair. The novel coronavirus spreads faster and is more contagious than seasonal flu.

Fact check: 2009 swine flu spreads rapidly, but COVID-19 is more deadly

Our assessment: Partly false

We rate this claim as PARTLY FALSE, based on our research. The initial statement presented most accurate statistics for the 1918 flu epidemic and seasonal flu outbreak figures. But COVID-19 has been more deadly than any of these diseases, according to experts and research. Although the number of people who have died from COVID-19 as a percentage of the world population at some point in time may be an exact number, it does not reflect the mortality of the virus. The mortality rate is about 0.05% in the US alone This is among the highest in the world and greater than the annual seasonal mortality rate, according to the latest data.

Our fact-checking resources:

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus)”
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “Disease Tax Impact”
• World Health Organization, 6 Nov. 2018: “Ask the Expert: Influence Q&A”
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)”
• USA TODAY August 13, 2020: “Is COVID-19 worse than the 1918 Spanish flu? Study shows that death in New York has doubled in the early months”
• Johns Hopkins University, accessed August 20, 2020: “Mortality Analyzes”
• Johns Hopkins University, accessed August 20, 2020: “Map of Coronavirus Resource Center”
• Our world in data, March 4, 2020: “The Spanish flu (1918-20): The global impact of the biggest flu pandemic in history”
• USA TODAY, June 30, 2020: “Fact check: There is no universal pandemic trajectory; COVID-19 can have no less than 2nd wave”
• USA TODAY, April 25, 2020: “Fact check: was second wave of Spanish flu less? Has it killed at least 20 million people?”
• Emerging Infectious Diseases, Jan 12, 2006: “Influence of 1918: The Mother of All Pandemics”
• Full fact, March 11, 2020: “How does the new coronavirus compare to flu?”
• Global Change Data Lab, // accessed August 20, 2020: “Coronavirus Pandemic Data Explorer”
• Our World in Data, accessed 21 August 2020: “COVID-19 “Mortality Risk

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: COVID-19 is deadlier than the 1918 Spanish flu and seasonal effect

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