Coronavirus may be in California before China announces outbreak, study suggests



The novel coronavirus may have spread to Southern California in early December, according to a new study by UCLA, published in the peer-reviewed journal Medical Internet Research.

After UCLA analyzed the electronic health records of health hospitals and clinics, the researchers found that as early as the week of December 22, hospitals began noting patients experiencing coughing and acute respiratory failure more abnormally than in previous years. For reference, the Chinese government reported the novel disease to the World Health Organization on 31 December.


“For many diseases, outpatient setting data can provide an early warning to emergency departments and intensive care units in the hospital,” said the study’s lead author, Dr. Said John Elmore. Hospitalized data, but we also looked at the larger outpatient clinic setting, where most patients come first for medical care when illness and symptoms occur. “



Researchers compared the health system and patient visit records between December 1, 2019 and February 29, 2020 to previous years, and found that outpatient clinic visits for cough care seekers increased by more than 50%. The number of visits of patients reporting cough has increased by 1,000 more than the average number of similar visits in the previous five years.


Covid-19 diagnostic testing was rare during the winter months, limiting the study’s findings.

“We will never really know if these more patients present COVID-19 cases with early and detected patients in our area,” Elmore said. “But lessons learned from this epidemic combined with health care analyzes that enable real-time surveillance of disease and symptoms, which can potentially help us identify and detect the spread and future epidemics.”


A timeline compiled by Ios Xios shows that in the weeks before the WHO officially reported the virus, China had evidence that something was up.

Eric Ting is an SFGate reporter. Email: [email protected] | Twitter:er_ericting