In early January, I submitted 10 energy and climate change issues to see this year. Spoiler alert: a pandemic was not on that list.
The panorama: The coronavirus has left no part of our world intact, including energy and climate change. Let’s look at my 2020 predictions halfway through this tumultuous year.
1. Politicking
Climate change was reaching a new mark for its role in the presidential contest among Democratic candidates. That focus has decreased significantly, along with a general lack of attention to the elections themselves.
What i’m seeing Expect climate change to play a supporting role in the debate on other issues, the pandemic and racism, that attract the attention of society.
2. Bottom of the barrel for oil and gas.
I predicted that world oil prices would remain low throughout this year, but I didn’t think they would drop so low that they would (briefly) be negative.
What i’m seeing: If 2019 turns out to be the peak of global oil demand, thanks in large part to the coronavirus, or if we will see an even stronger rebound in the coming years if the world doubles in its travel habits before the pandemic.
3. Big greenish oil changes
Some large European oil companies, led by BP and Royal Dutch Shell, have maintained at least a rhetorical commitment to continue to transform into cleaner businesses. But independent experts say the pandemic has put all companies in a difficult financial position, and that could jeopardize their willingness to move on.
What i’m seeing: To what extent more companies list assets (BP, in June, was the last to do so). Analysts say these decisions are at least in part an acknowledgment that oil and gas reserves will be less valuable in a future with fewer emissions.
4. Carbon taxes
The persistent long-term campaign for a carbon tax on Capitol Hill has become terrifyingly quiet in recent months as the pandemic takes over the world.
What i’m seeing: A climate proposal launched by Democrats last week includes a price on carbon, with an emphasis on ensuring the protection of the poorest Americans. I’ll be watching to see how much Biden accepts that, or if he waits to see if he wins in November.
5. Paris climate agreement
The United Nations is delaying a full-year high-profile conference where nations were supposed to announce greater ambitions, the first time since the Paris Climate Agreement was signed five years ago.
What i’m seeing: The elections will have a major impact on the fate of this deal, but I am also looking to see how the delay gives countries more time to come up with more ambitious plans, or if the delay will only cement mediocre progress.
6. China on the rise
The pandemic has likely delayed China’s intentions to launch a national carbon dioxide credit trading system this year, experts following the news to Axios say. Instead, the country is building more coal plants.
What i’m seeing: The Environmental Defense Fund says China still hopes to launch its system before the end of the year, and that so far it is sticking to a target of having eight sectors of its economy covered in 2025.
7. Trade wars
The coronavirus has eliminated the boom in natural gas exports, which had already faced immense challenges brought about by Trump’s trade war with China.
In response to the economic cost of the pandemic, Europe is integrating clean energy policies into its recovery plan. To the extent that the United States does not (the path we are on now), Europe may be even more inclined than ever to impose carbon tariffs on American products, a component of its Green Agreement that it unveiled in late from last year.
8. Renewable challenges
He had written that he would be mindful of the challenges facing wind and solar power as his share of the electricity pie increases. While I still am, the pandemic showed two unique attributes for these renewable sources:
- They are not part of a volatile global market like oil and natural gas.
- Due to low operating costs, wind and solar power often continue to run on energy sources such as coal and nuclear.
9. Major reactors
There is less action taking place on this front than I expected, certainly compared to the tumultuous state of the world.
10. Climate change, in real time.
The Australian wildfires, yes, they were this year! – they are an excellent example of more extreme meteorological phenomena and scientists that document it.
What i’m seeing: To what extent extreme weather worsens this summer, especially forest fires, and to what extent it exacerbates the pandemic crisis and racial inequality.
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