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A Covid patient receiving treatment in a California hospital
As cases of coronavirus in the US continue to increase, there are competing narratives about the impact of the disease.
President Trump claims that the country has one of the lowest deaths from the virus in the world.
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I heard that everywhere in the world we have one of the lowest, perhaps the lowest, mortality rates.
He also said that excessive deaths are significantly lower than anywhere else – that is the number of extra deaths above what would be expected.
But others say the U.S. has been hit less than other countries, pointing out that it has the most recorded Covid deaths of any country in the world.
“More than 170,000 Americans have died – by far the worst performance of any nation on earth,” said Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.
We looked at three different ways to measure the rate of Covid-19 deaths, two of which show that although the US is not the least affected, it is among those most affected.
1. The number of excessive deaths
First, there is no international standard for measuring death, as well as its causes. And making comparisons is difficult because countries register deaths in different ways.
But experts say one of the most telling measures is how many extra deaths a country experiences above the number that would be expected to die.
These “excessive” death data capture some potentially unrecorded coronavirus deaths, and other deaths that may be due to stress on health care systems and other indirect effects of the epidemic.
It can therefore give a more complete picture of how a country in general is affected.
Most developed countries publish excessive data on deaths, but they do so less often than the daily total deaths for coronavirus they deliver.
The U.S. experienced nearly 200,000 excessive deaths from the start of the outbreak until July 11, according to the latest available data.
That is an 18% increase from previous years.
Although the time periods are different, and looking at the latest data from the leading industrialized worlds in the world, we can see that the US has a lower proportion of excessive deaths to date than Italy and the United Kingdom.
The UK has been one of the hardest hit countries, with around 26% more deaths than expected in a typical year to early August.
That about this measure with the data available so far, the US is not the country hardest hit, but this figure could change.
While weekly deaths in the UK and Italy are back to expected levels, the US could move up the rankings as it continues to look above expected numbers of deaths each week.
2. The death toll of the case
Another measure is the death toll from cases. This is the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases – of those who tested positive for coronavirus, how many died?
President Trump has said: “Our death toll has continued to fall, and is lower than the European Union, and almost everywhere else in the world.”
The US rate is relatively low compared to most major European countries, including the United Kingdom, although it is not the lowest in the world.
Percentage of cases of coronavirus leading to death
But different countries are testing to find cases of coronavirus in different ways, which means this is a tough comparison to make.
A low death toll may mean that widespread tests identify many mild cases that were unlikely to die in the first place.
3. Death rates per capita
The US has recorded the most coronavirus deaths in the world, but it has a larger population than many other countries.
If you look at deaths per capita – as a proportion of each country’s population – the US is no longer at the top of the list, but remains in the top 10 of the least affected countries .
10 countries with the most coronavirus deaths per capita
The US has recorded more than 52 deaths from coronavirus per 100,000 people – there are a number of countries that have recorded more.
The US regularly continues to report more than 1,000 new coronavirus deaths per day, which is one of the highest daily death rates per capita in the world, according to the UK-based Our World in Data website which compiles global figures for coronavirus.
However, there are important differences in how countries count coronavirus deaths, which makes accurate comparison.
Additional reporting by Becky Dale and Nassos Stylianou.
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