The coronavirus pandemic is expected to have resulted in a 14% drop in global working hours in the second quarter of 2020, the International Labor Organization said.
The United Nations labor agency said this updated drop in hours of work was the equivalent of 400 million full-time job losses worldwide in the second quarter, according to a standard 48-hour work week.
This marked a “sharp increase” in the 10.7% drop in working hours, or 305 million job losses, that the ILO forecast for that period, in its previous report on the impact of Covid-19 on the labor market, released in May.
In this fifth edition of its monitor “Covid-19 and the world of work”, the ILO said that the Americas were the most affected region, with an estimated drop of 18.3% in working hours, or 70 million jobs full time.
Losses from hours of work are calculated based on the ILO’s “immediate forecast” model, which is a statistical forecast based on real-time economic and labor market data. Use the fourth quarter of 2019 as the basis for falls.
In the first quarter, the ILO calculated a 5.4% drop in working hours worldwide, equivalent to 155 million jobs, compared to the fourth quarter of last year.
The ILO said there were multiple factors that caused this global decline, such as fewer hours of work, vacation or leave, as well as unemployment and “inactivity”.
The second half of 2020
The ILO report also described three different scenarios for a recovery in the labor market in the second half of the year.
The reference model projects a 4.9% decrease in working hours, or 140 million job losses, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This scenario assumes a rebound in economic activity according to existing forecasts , the lifting of restrictions on the closure of the workplace, in addition to a recovery in consumption and investment.
A pessimistic scenario would see an estimated 11.9% drop in working hours, or the loss of 340 million jobs. This is based on the fact that there is a second wave of coronavirus cases, causing the blocking restrictions to return, meaning a “significantly slow recovery”.
The optimistic model would result in an estimated 1.2% decrease in working hours, or 34 million job cuts. This best case scenario would be the result of the rapid resumption of worker activities, “significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation.”
Exacerbated gender inequalities
The ILO report also highlighted the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on women workers. She noted that 510 million, or 40%, of all employed women globally work in the four sectors most affected by the coronavirus crisis, compared to 36.6% of men.
The fact that women also dominate the domestic work, health and social care sectors has meant that they are at greater risk of infection and transmission of the virus and of losing income. Meanwhile, the distribution of unpaid child care work, for example, has become more uneven during the pandemic, worsened by the closure of schools and care services.
The ILO said this impact on women ran the risk of undoing some of the progress in gender equality in recent decades and exacerbating gender inequalities related to work.
Guy Ryder, ILO Director-General, said: “The decisions we take now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030.”
Despite the fact that much has already been done to help deal with the impact of the virus and that countries were at different stages of the pandemic, Ryder said “we need to redouble our efforts if we want to get out of this crisis in a better way than when it started “.
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