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BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding writes that South Africa, which was one of the earliest and hardest lockdowns in the world, is making significant changes in its fight against the coronavirus.
It was barely a “mission accomplished” moment.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa looked fairly thorny, and he was cautious, as he appeared on national television this week to warn of the dangers of another wave of infection and to urge people to take protective measures against the virus.
And yet the President’s main message was a simple, optimistic and impressive truth.
“We have managed to get through the worst phase of this epidemic,” he declared.
As the rate of infection here falls below the critical threshold of one new case per 100,000 people, South Africa is moving into a new phase – with relief and some pride.
The president and his scientific advisers describe it as a “new normal.”
Image copyright pyriteGetty ImagesWith almost all economic activity resuming, the nation’s borders slowly opening up, and the world’s fastest and hardest lockdown ending, this seems like a significant moment – an opportunity to take stock, even to celebrate, and to explore the thorny issue. chance. Who or what should share the most credit to include Covid-19.
The chairman of the government’s Covid-19 advisory panel and the public face of the scientific community – “back to Italy’s view that we should not be prepared that we would panic,” reminded Professor Salim Abdul Karim – until March, and he and the government The oncoming viral was a “storm”.
Instead, very few hospitals overflowed, and the official death toll forecast of about 15,000 is significantly lower than even the most optimistic modeling.
Image copyright pyriteGetty ImagesSpeaking on the internet link from his office fee in Durban, Prof. Cream does not remedy the relief he feels.
But, like many scientists, their attitude is not to sit back and enjoy the good news, but to continue to test and test hypotheses to better understand the reaction of both Covid-1 and South Africa.
‘Bad Epidemic’
Now there is plenty of data to wade through.
Most of them are contradictory. Or rather, one of them still needs to be put in the right context.
Image copyright pyriteReutersTake South Africa’s long fight against HIV and tuberculosis.
New evidence suggests TB patients are particularly vulnerable to Covid-19.
But, on the flip side, the systems made the right arrangements to deal with both pre-existing diseases, “helping us and better preparing us to deal with covid,” said Prof. Cream.
And while South Africa may have a good reason to celebrate its success, there is plenty to criticize.
“We have a very bad epidemic,” said Professor Karim.
“At one point we were the fifth worst in the world. I wouldn’t consider it something to be proud of.
“I would be really proud if we were able to minimize the impact.”
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As we have noted here in recent months, there have been instances of mismanagement, alarming allegations of corruption and some serious mistakes in the outbreak.
I will leave the lockdown – and the legal debate, enriched by chaos, about whether the government got the balance right – the next day.
Nine principles
But what are the reasons for South Africa’s relative success in fighting the virus?
Image copyright pyriteGetty ImagesProf. Cream has compiled a list of nine factors or hypotheses, which he applies not only to South Africa, but also to other countries – at least not in this continent – that seem to have survived the worst.
- Its first issue is under-reporting – a particular issue in less developed countries
- Due to limited capacity and resources, another investigation is underway
- Third – high on the list of many experts – is demographic, and has a small population in many African countries.
- Next comes the issue of how the virus reached South Africa – by travelers, who do not mix with a large population, enabling the authorities to effectively stamp out the first wave of infection.
- The fifth is the initial lockdown applied to South Africa and many other parts of the continent
- The sixth issue – one I raised in a recent article – is the preconceived notion of immunity, as the circulation was previously exposed to four common coronaviruses.
- The potential effect of warmer temperatures is seventh
- The possible role of the virus on the virus is eighth
- And the ninth includes the term “stochastically” – a reference to the unpredictable way in which the virus appears to be spreading, and the difficulty in predicting when individual infection peaks are likely to occur.
Nine principles. But constructable, Pro. Karim cannot be fully convinced by any of them, at least not without further evidence.
Image copyright pyriteGetty Images“I doubt any of these are major contributors that explain the whole difference [of why some countries have done better than others], ”He said.
“Even in combination, most of these differences can’t explain what we’re seeing. It remains interesting to me.”
