The Oregon Health Authority reported 331 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday and two new deaths.
The new case totals are well below the record 437 cases announced a week ago, but they are still high relative to daily case counts seen in the past four months.
The number of hospitalized patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 165 on Thursday. That’s one less than the 166 hospitalized cases reported Wednesday, which was a record high since the state began releasing COVID-19-confirmed hospitalizations. Comparable data prior to April 8 was not available, because public health officials did not distinguish COVID-19 confirmed patients from suspects.
Public health experts say hospitalizations often lag behind new cases by at least a week or two, because some people with COVID-19 take time to deteriorate to the point that they need to be admitted to a hospital. An increase in deaths could follow a week or two after that, for those who lose their battles with the disease.
Cases by county: Thursday’s new cases came in the following counties: Clackamas (18), Columbia (3), Coos (3), Crook (1), Deschutes (18), Douglas (13), Hood River (1), Jackson (8 ), Jefferson (3), Josephine (3), Klamath (13), Lake (1), Lane (12), Lincoln (5), Linn (3), Malheur (10), Marion (39), Morrow (4 ), Multnomah (77), Polk (13), Tillamook (1), Umatilla (39), Wasco (6), Washington (33) and Yamhill (4).
Who got infected: More than a third of the new cases reported Thursday were among people age 29 and younger. About 40% were between 30 and 49 years old. And a quarter were 50 or older.
Body count: A total of 273 people are known to have died from the new coronavirus in Oregon. A 74-year-old man from Umatilla County died at the Good Shepherd Health Care System after testing positive 24 days earlier. The state reported that it had underlying conditions, but did not say what they were.
A 79-year-old woman in Marion County died at the Salem hospital after testing positive 13 days earlier. She had unspecified underlying conditions.
Positive test rate: The percentage of positive tests released Thursday was 5.5%, although the state released a report on Wednesday showing that positive tests increased to 6.6% during the week ending Sunday.
Public health experts say a rising positive rate is a sign that a state may not be testing enough mild or asymptomatic patients, and that it is missing those cases because it is primarily focusing its efforts on evaluating the sickest people. The World Health Organization recommends that the figure remain below 5% for two weeks for communities to reopen. In the U.S., the seven-day average is 8.5% nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Projections: The Oregon Health Authority updated its biweekly modeling report today, showing three scenarios of how COVID-19 infections could evolve before August 13.
If the current rate of coronavirus transmission continues, the number of new daily infections would increase steadily over the next four weeks to around 1,600 infections per day by August 13, with 27 hospitalizations.
If transmission decreased by 10 percentage points, the estimated number of new daily infections would decrease over time to 600 infections per day by August 13, with 17 hospitalizations.
In the most pessimistic scenario, where transmission increases by 10 percentage points from current rates, daily infections would increase to 2,300 and daily hospitalizations would increase to 46.
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– Ted Sickinger; [email protected]; 503-221-8505; @tedsickinger
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