Considering the Milwaukee Brewers and Mike Foltynewicz

The Atlanta Braves shocked the baseball world after a game with Tampa Bay in which Mike Foltynewicz made his first start to the season. They appointed him for assignment.

With the availability of Foltynewicz, should the Milwaukee Brewers make an exchange to attract the right-handed pitcher? On the surface. It seems like a no-brainer. The boy got Cy Young votes in 2018. He’s thrown in big games, and was a limit ace for the playoff level team. However, it raises a big question?

Why on Earth would a team designate a pitcher with premium stuff that they pitched as an ace in 2018 and in the latter part of 2019? The probable reasons are multifaceted, and make sense once you dig deeper.

Why?

The speed of the Foltynewicz fastball dived through the nose. According to FangraphsHis fastball speed averaged 91.1 mph in his only outing this season. He also slowed down a bit from 2018 to 2019. Could he be trending in an area where his fastball just doesn’t play enough to get major league hitters out? The Braves front might think so.

I owed $ 6.4M by 2020

Foltynewicz is going to win the prorated share of $ 6.4 thousand in 2020. With just 10-11 potential starts remaining, the Braves might not think it’s profitable to pay those dollars to a pitcher who has performed poorly all summer and was hit. in his first outing of the season (6 ER, 3 HR, 3.1 IP). It took Folty until August 2019, and a trip to AAA for him to get back into shape. The Braves might feel like it’s too long to wait, even if there’s nothing really wrong with it (i.e. injury or mechanical failure).

The brave have plenty of young pitcher prospects

Atlanta is already testing Kyle Wright (exploration grade – fastball: 60, total: 55) at one of the rotation points. Ian Anderson (degree of exploration – fastball: 60, total: 55), Bryce Wilson (degree of exploration – fastball: 60, overall: 50) and Tucker Davidson (degree of exploration – fastball: 60, total: 50) . Mike Soroka and Max Fried are already in the fold and working well.

The Braves brought Cole Hamels, Felix Hernández and Jhoulys Chacin as insurance for a young staff, and a bridge that helps them remain competitive. Obviously, the launch situation has not worked as well as they would have liked since Hamels ended most of the year and Hernández opted for the season.

The Atlanta mindset is one of extreme urgency or they are ready to give young people their chance very soon. Either way, Foltynewicz was on the way if any one of those thought trains is accurate.

Atlanta might disregard bringing him back

Atlanta has a group of young pitchers coming. Foltynewicz will seek to sign a long-term contract or try free agency in his last year of arbitration. This move certainly tells you that the Braves’ main office did not foresee a long-term future with their former ace. If it’s not going to be good this year, or at least not until later, why stick around and hinder the development of your younger pitchers? Again, this is speculation as to what your mindset might be.

The urgency of the season is too much to bear

A twelfth part of the season is over and gone. The Eastern National League is believed to be the best division in baseball. I think that opinion is a lot “ballyhoo”. Nonetheless, the Braves are 2-3 in a division that has the World Series Nationals champions, a talented Mets team and an exaggerated Phillies team. Atlanta could be feeling a lot of pressure. Allowing Folty to take one of the rotation points he works things out for seems like too much for the Braves’ main office.

“We feel a sense of urgency … We’re just not in position this short season to expect something to happen.” – Brian Snitker

The teams may also not be very patient this season overall. Atlanta could be the first of many of these types of movements. Forty are owed a lot of money and are reaching their last year of arbitration in 2021.

Foltynewicz has no options

In 2019 Foltynewicz opened the season in IL due to a spur on the right elbow bone. It didn’t launch until May 2, and it wasn’t effective at all. In May 2019, he released a 6.12 ERA and a 6.86 ERA in June. He was subsequently sent to Gwinnett to work on his mechanics. When he returned in August, the great right-hander was incredible posting a 2.65 ERA and a 1.50 ERA in the month of September.

What the Braves had at their disposal in 2019 that they don’t have in 2020 is that option. With the sense of urgency that the shortened season is bringing, Atlanta doesn’t have the luxury of letting Folty fall and work on things. They did it last season.

If the Braves walk out the door slowly, that would make Folty even more expendable

A 2-3 record doesn’t mean the end of the road for the Braves by any stretch. However, if the Braves are off to a bad start, then Foltynewicz, with just one more year of control beyond 2020, becomes more expendable. That’s especially true if the team feels they are fit to try free agency.

The best time for your business value

Atlanta may feel that its commercial value is as high as it will be. If they waited until the offseason, the Braves would lose significant value in what an exchange would return. By giving him DFA, the Braves could get a better return for him, as the acquiring team would have him for two seasons instead of just one.

Could be hurt, not as bad as normal, or both

Foltynewicz arrived at camp noticeably thinner and with less speed on the fastball. The Atlanta Braves have invested heavily in this guy. However, are you ready to let it go? Do they know something the rest of us don’t? Teammate Mike Soroka hinted at it in an interview with Paul Newberry of the Associated press.

Mike Soroka, who assumed the role of Braves’ first starter, said Foltynewicz appears to have some sort of undetected injury, although he also acknowledged that his problems could be mechanical defects in his delivery.

“Obviously, there is an elbow or shoulder (problem), whatever it is,” Soroka said before Tuesday night’s game in Tampa Bay. “I know Folty when he is healthy. It’s what it looked like in 2018. It’s just not coming out the same. You have to address that.

Foltynewicz also appears to be slimmer than a season ago. Snitker wonders if that contributed to the loss of speed on his fastball.

Should Milwaukee Brewers try to get it?

The answer to this question is that it depends. The Brewers’ scouts probably have a good read on the Foltynewicz situation. Depending on your mindset, the answer may be yes or no.

The argument for itself

While Foltynewicz has been inconsistent throughout his career, he is very talented. When he’s in his game, his stuff plays as well as anyone in baseball. If this starter at the head of the rotation needs to gradually increase due to being away for so long, or if he is going through mechanical problems, this could be a steal for the acquiring club.

The Brewers have plenty of pitch depth that could close a gap in time for Foltynewicz to catch up. Craig Counsell could use it in 2-3 inning and then 4-5 inning until he is his dominant self again. If that dominant self were to happen this season, a Brandon Woodruff / Mike Foltynewicz rotation front could be significant.

There’s also the added fact that Foltynewicz is controlled for 2021. While the price for two seasons of Foltynewicz could be anywhere from $ 13 million to $ 15 million, it’s a bargain for a good to very good starting pitcher.

Of course, the Braves are probably looking for other assets in terms of prospects. That leads to the next argument.

The argument for not

Foltynewicz could have a prohibitive cost. $ 13- $ 15 million for the services of a healthy Mike Foltynewicz is obvious. However, the Braves will want prospects in return. DFA’d the right to generate commercial interest. Folty is a faulty asset that has risks that they would like to minimize and recover as much as possible. What they recover is the only question. If the Braves want too much, the Brewers may say no.

There is also an argument to argue that the Brewers have no prospect of making a deal. With one of the worst farming systems in MLB, Milwaukee may not have enough capital to make a deal work anyway. There’s always something about the big league club, but who? Then there is the biggest problem of all.

Folty could be really hurt. If you’re in a situation where you might need Tommy John surgery that spans 15 to 18 months, that wouldn’t be something the Brewers would like to invest in. In fact, this could be that the Braves were trying to get a team to take on their charge instead of their asset.

Millions of dollars and MLB prospects / players for what could be another team’s load is not a good investment. However, if the Brewers are in Folty, they likely have done a lot of due diligence. If they were able to accomplish something for him, it probably means that there is a good chance that Foltynewicz is fine, at least for the foreseeable future.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, MLB.comand fangraphs