The Chinese Navy is rapidly seeking global capabilities. A key area of future operations may be the Indian Ocean. Chinese submarines in particular could have a strategic impact if they roamed those waters. From China’s point of view, this would protect the vital shipping lanes that will be vulnerable in any war. Naturally, many of the world’s navies would be concerned if this were the case. Chief among them is the Indian Navy, which currently has the largest submarine fleet in the South Asia region.
For Chinese submarines, the relevant routes to the Indian Ocean are the Straits of Malacca, Sunda … [+]
Concern about China’s naval expansion is a hot topic on the world stage. The United States Navy is increasingly turning to Asia. Speaking at the Brussels Forum virtual conference on June 25, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made reference to the “threats from the Chinese Communist Party to India” and other countries in Asia. “We will make sure that we are in a suitable position to counter the PLA.” (People’s Liberation Army, which includes the Chinese Navy).
But much of the focus is on the South China Sea, where Beijing has made extensive territorial claims. The Indian Ocean theater seems less focused, at least in the eyes of the public. To India, however, the threat seems very real. Chinese submarines have paid for ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in recent years.
In peacetime, Chinese submarines would be expected to enter the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca. This must be done on the surface, which makes its presence obvious. China could still do it to send a message, but it is of limited use in an operating environment where submarines want to hide their presence.
In times of war, Chinese submarines could slide through either the Sunda Strait or the Lombok Strait. These pass between the Indonesian chain that separates the Pacific and Indian Oceans. An advantage over the Malacca Strait, which passes Singapore, is that it would take the submarines to the deep waters of the eastern Indian Ocean. From there they could take less obvious routes to their targets.
The Sunda Strait would be the shortest route, but it is very shallow at its eastern end, so the deeper strait of Lombok might be preferred. There, a submerged passage is probably considered feasible for the Chinese Navy.
Once inside the Indian Ocean, the submarines could rearm or resupply without having to return to China. The Chinese Navy has already built a base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. Even if the submarines themselves did not call the port, which would be closely monitored, ships could still operate from there to carry out replenishment at sea.
And there is another Chinese port under construction at Gwadar in Pakistan. Work on an extension to that port, which may include a Chinese naval base, appears to be imminent. Gwadar has the advantage that it is connected by land to China, so supplies would not have to go by sea.
If China created a permanent squadron of the Indian Ocean, its natural bases would be Gwadar and Djibouti. There is also the small island of Feydhoofinolhu in the Maldives, which China is developing as a tourist hub. Planners will be concerned that it may act as a support base or monitoring station in some scenarios.
For its part, the Indian Navy is also increasing its capabilities and modifying its operational patterns to counter the threat. There is evidence that it has been testing its ability to deploy submarines to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This could be the key to monitoring underwater activity in the Straits of Malacca.
At the same time, the Neptune P-8I aircraft supplied by the Indian Navy is updating India’s anti-submarine range in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Along with the surface navy and submarine force, this could hope to track the movements of Chinese submarines.
But in the vastness of the ocean this could be a challenge. Although China’s submarines may not be as quiet as their western counterparts, they do have a natural stealth advantage. Even very old submarines pose a serious threat that cannot be ignored in times of war. Therefore, how fast it can react to a more widespread presence of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean will be critical to India.
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