Most geopolitical analyzes are fairly based on Earth. But don’t forget to look up: China’s influence is skyrocketing.
On July 23, a Long March 5 rocket took off from the Wenchen Launch Center on the Chinese island of Hainan. Equipped with a lander, an orbiter, and a scout vehicle, the Chinese spacecraft Tianwen-1 has set the course for Mars to begin a comprehensive study of the Red Planet.
The mission to Mars, however, is not just about discovery. It is part of a comprehensive strategy designed to propel China into the ranks of “fully developed, rich and powerful” nations by 2049.
As President Xi Jinping explained to taikonauts aboard Tiangong-1, China’s first prototype space station in 2013, “the space dream is part of the dream of strengthening China.” Xi’s China is no longer “hiding capabilities and keeping a low profile,” but “striving for achievement,” he said at the time.
Under Xi’s command, the People’s Republic has launched two prototypes of space stations (Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2), as well as a cargo ship (Tianzhou) capable of refueling other spacecraft.
In 2018, it fired more rockets into the cosmos than any other nation. A year later, China made history when Chang’e 4 successfully landed the first rover on the dark side of the Moon.
Closer to home, the BeiDou 2 navigation system recently launched its 35th satellite, completing its expanding constellation that promises to provide global coverage as an alternative to the United States’ GPS and Europe’s Galileo Positioning System.
If Tianwen-1 successfully reaches Mars, China will join the US and the former Soviet Union as the only nations to have accomplished such a space feat.
Unlike NASA and other space agencies whose stated goals are to conduct space exploration for the advancement of science, China’s space program is more concerned with economic gains, geostrategic positioning, and support for development goals. .
By 2040, the space industry is forecast to be worth $ 2.7 trillion, according to a recent report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. China clearly plans to capitalize on this projection.
While the most important short and medium term opportunities may come from satellite broadband Internet access, the future is ready to see space mining emerge as a profitable industry.
A small asteroid about 200 meters long that is rich in platinum could reach $ 30 billion, according to a projection. The Moon has hundreds of billions of dollars in untapped resources, including helium-3, titanium, and other rare earth metals.
Chinese researchers like Lin Mingtao are already working at the National Space Science Center to capture a near-Earth asteroid and take it back to China to inspect and extract its resources.
Beijing also has big plans for the Moon. According to the state news agency Xinhua, the China National Space Administration (CNAS) intends to establish a research station on the lunar surface in the next decade.
If China manages to build an industrial-capable lunar base, it could significantly reduce the costs of launching spacecraft and serve as a gateway for future space exploration.
But China’s spatial ambitions don’t stop there. By 2022, China aims to have a fully operational space station orbiting Earth.
There are also plans to launch a variety of solar power plants in a low Earth orbit designed to transmit electricity to China. Beijing is also working to develop nuclear powered spacecraft by 2040, possibly allowing for deep space travel.
Altogether, China is building a Space Silk Road. Under the Xi Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this new cosmic corridor complements its sea and land silk land roads.
As this galactic architecture takes shape, Beijing intends to offer the international community a credible alternative network of infrastructure, vying for global leadership in space.
At the same time, the space program is also intertwined with “Made in China 2025,” a policy designed to catapult China into a world leader in high-tech manufacturing.
The Space Silk Road provides a new avenue to enhance China’s indigenous innovation capabilities in fields such as quantum communications, robotics, artificial intelligence, and aviation.
Consequently, it also promotes civil-military merger and the development of dual-use technologies: for example, while BeiDou can help navigate a ship through stormy waters, it can also guide a missile.
“In modern warfare, space capability can help achieve geopolitical advantage, military competitiveness and technological development,” said Michael Raska, assistant professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore. China searches for all three as it embarks on the journey to “great space power” status, it told regional media.
Ye Peijian, the head of the Chinese lunar exploration program, has provided insight into how the Communist Party of China views space.
“The universe is an ocean, the Moon is the Diaoyu Islands, Mars is the Huangyan Island. If we don’t go there even though we are able to, our descendants will blame us, ”Ye told reporters in 2017.
“If others go there, then they will take over, and you won’t be able to go even if you want to. This is a sufficient reason.
Dale Aluf is the director of research and strategy for SIGNAL, Sino-Israel Global Network and Academic Leadership, a member of the China Silk Road Thinking Tanks Association SRTA.
