China has named the United States the world’s largest economy ahead of the end of the decade, overtaking its rival during the global Covid-19 epidemic, according to a report.
The Center for Economics and Business Research said it would now direct the value of China’s economy while by 2028 the U.S. Will be measured in dollars more than half a decade earlier than expected a year ago.
In the annual league table of growth prospects for 193 countries, the UK-based consultancy group said China has recovered quickly from the effects of Covid-19 and will grow by 2% in 2020, as a large global economy expands.
U.S. With a %% agreement expected to be reached this year, China will close the gap with its biggest rival, the CEBRA said. Overall, global gross domestic product is forecast to fall 4.4% this year, the second-largest decline since the second year of the war.
Douglas McVilliams, vice-president of CEBR, said: “The big news in the forecast is the growth rate of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become a high-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect that we will be in the U.S. five years earlier than we were a year ago.
“Other Asian economists are also pushing the league table. A lesson for Western policymakers, who have performed relatively poorly during the epidemic, need to pay more attention to what has happened in Asia than to seeing each other. “
China’s share of global GDP rose from 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2019, the CEBRA said. It will cross the per capita threshold of 12,536 (9,215) to become a high-income country by 2023.
Even so, owning one is still beyond the reach of the average person. And will be much lower than in Western European countries. U.S. In, the average per capita income is just over 000 1,000,000, compared to just over 39 39,000 in the UK.
The CEBRA said it would not prevent the UK from leaving the EU – which is expected to become the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2020 – one of the best performing economies in the next 15 years.
“We expect the UK to remain at 4.0% per annum until 2021-25 and 1.8% per annum by 2026-30 and 1.8% per annum by 2031-35.”
“The UK has predicted to beat India in 202 overt, but otherwise it could keep its place in the league table at 203 to. By 2035, the UK’s GDP is projected to be 0% higher than its long-time rival and neighboring France. ”
After overtaking France and the UK last year, India fell behind the UK as a result of the sharp fall in the value of the rupee. But the dive will be short-lived, with the world’s second most populous country becoming its third largest economy by 2035.
The CEBRA said environmental issues would begin to have a serious impact on the shape of the world economy over the next 15 years, after a period in which the effects of global warming became more pronounced than previously feared.
“Sea levels are expected to rise by 45 cm from 2000 bases by 2035. This compares with a small 20 cm increase by 2030 predicted two years ago.”
With more countries planning to transition to a net carbon zero economy in the coming decades, the CEBRA said lower demand for fossil fuels and oil prices would remain weak. The price of a barrel of crude will fall below 30 per cent by 2035, it said.
