China may never “reunite” with Taiwan now that the central government in Beijing has tightened its control over Hong Kong, one strategist said Monday.
“In a way, the huge price that China is paying for Hong Kong is actually Taiwan,” David Roche, president and global strategist at Consulting Independent Strategy, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
China maintains Taiwan as part of its territory and sees the democratically self-governing island as an escaped province.
The Chinese Communist Party has never ruled the island, but has tried to pressure Taiwan to accept Beijing’s rule under a “one country, two systems” framework.
Hong Kong is a former British colony now ruled by China under the principle of “one country, two systems”, that Chinese territory loses a largely separate economic and legal system, and that those living there are restricted. voting rights.
A supporter is waving a Taiwanese flag during a campaign rally for Han Kuo-yu, the presidential candidate for the Kuomintang party, ahead of the January 9, 2020 presidential election in Taipei, Taiwan.
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Rivalry of US-China
Even China has never rejected the use of military force forcing Taiwan to come under its control, Roche said he doubted Beijing would descend on this route. That’s because China risks tarnishing ties with the US if it takes Taiwan by force, said Roche, who compared current relations between the world’s two largest economies to a cold war.
Relations between the US and China have been declining in recent months, with both sides clashing over a wide range of issues, including the origin of the coronavirus, Hong Kong’s autonomy and concerns about national security over Chinese tech companies.
Taiwan has also remained a controversial issue in bilateral ties between the two countries. Washington has no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, but is legally bound to provide the island with the means to defend itself.
“Despite the non-existence of a formal treaty between the US and Taiwan for mutual defense – as Taiwan’s defense by America – in reality, if there was such a move by the US military against Taiwan, the US would certainly trade, “said Roche.
That would move US-China relations “from cold war to hot war,” he said.
– CNBC’s Huileng Tan contributed to this report.
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