Taipei, Taiwan – Two Chinese jets flew briefly across the “median line” of Taiwan Street – the de facto border between China and Taiwan – on Monday morning in what has been a busy year in military exercises across the Strait.
While the jets signaled Beijing’s displeasure with U.S. Secretary of Health Alex Azar’s ongoing visit to Taipei, similar missions entered Taiwanese airspace and waters. at least 20 times this year, according to local media.
Although Taipei is not required to make public any military encounter with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warned in July that Beijing might be preparing to “resolve the Taiwan issue” – a euphemism for it. take over from the island.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has not ruled out taking power in the takeover of Taiwan, a democracy of 23 million people that the Beijing Communist Party claims as its own, although it has never ruled the island.
Officials and analysts in Taiwan say the resurgence in military activity this year is a sign that Beijing may be seeking a diversion from a host of domestic problems, including a summer of catastrophic floods in southern China, as well as international pressure on a variety of issues, including the novel pandemic coronavirus and the trade war with the US.
Taiwan, which remains a diplomatic hotspot for Beijing, has long been an easy scapegoat for the Communist Party in times of trouble, according to Wang Ting-yu, a Democratic Progressive Party lawmaker and member of the Taiwan Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee.
“This year, the PLA’s activity seems a bit much more than normal, especially in the Southeastern part of the Strait of Taiwan. We notice that compared to the domestic situation of China, the Chinese Communist Party has some problems in their country: COVID -19, floods, some food shortages and the economy is a little less than normal, “Wang told Al Jazeera.
“We think something happened within the Chinese communist leadership, maybe Xi has to deal with some kind of challenge, and they use conflict from outside to separate [internal] leadership [problems]. “
The uptick in military pressure was first noticed by Chinese viewers in March and April and continued over the following months, even when Taiwan held its own annual domestic drill in July to prepare for a possible attack or invasion by the PLA.
Enoch Wu, a Taiwanese political activist and former member of Taiwan’s National Security Council, Al Jazeera, said he expected the hostilities to escalate.
“Sure the number of exercises is quite high this year, but I think we should see it as part of a long-term trend. Every year, China has gradually increased and its military activities have escalated, so from where I sit, I see that as part of a longer-term pattern that is likely to intensify, “Wu said.
“There is a public expectation here that China will continue to increase pressure, and there is much more that they can do, and will do, before an invasion happens.”
The last major crisis between Beijing and Taipei was in 1995-1996 when China fired rockets into Taiwanese waters following a visit by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to the US shortly before his election.
Since Wu said China has been building up the capacity of the People’s Liberation Army, while also firing on Taiwan and its neighbors. Notable incidents included declaring the identification zone of East China Sea Air Defense, island construction and militarization in the South China Sea, border facilities with India, and conflicts with Japanese coastguard and fishing vessels, he said.
While Xi has promised to take Taiwan, which he claims is part of China, by “any necessary means”, Wang, the Taiwanese lawmaker, told Al Jazeera that he thought a real Chinese invasion of Taiwan was unlikely in time.
International costs would simply be too high for Beijing, which is also currently fighting a trade war with the US, and the government could get ‘the same effect’ within China by appearing more assertive against Taiwan, Wang said.
But while Xi may win hearts and minds at home, his pressure on Taiwan comes at a unique demographic turning point for democracy – and one that has given President Tsai Ing-Wen the political will to hold her ground against a hostile China.
Notable changes are included a move to emphasize the word “Taiwan” on passports – which traditionally read “Republic of China, Taiwan” – and to change the English name of the flagship carrier Taiwan, China Airlines. Taiwan has also managed to transform its successful handling of COVID-19 so far into a global public relations gain and increase its international profile, despite the lack of an observer chair at the World Health Assembly.
Such maneuvers might not have been possible without domestic support within Taiwan, said Christy Chiang Ya-chi, director of the Intelligent Technology Management Research Center at Taipei National University of Technology.
This year, a record 67 percent of Taiwanese identified as “Taiwanese” as opposed to “Chinese” according to the latest identity poll by the Chengchi National Electoral Study Center, up from 17.6 percent in 1992 when the survey began. .
“I think the figures illustrate the growing pressure on the government to change the names of Taiwan passports and China Airlines … It can be fair to say that there is a more assertive Taiwan in the face of a more hostile China, said Chiang.
While the figures are less clear on whether Taiwan should declare formal independence from China, said Jessica Drun, a non-resident at US-based think tank Project 2049, the long-term trend is no longer in Beijing’s favor.
“Identity politics shifted to a unique Taiwanese identity and what that means for domestic politics – that will shift from the median [of status quo]. If we look at the two ends of the Taiwan spectrum as unanimity and independence … at the moment with the way Taiwan identifies politics, they will move everyone closer to independence, whatever that entails, and beyond China, she said. .
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