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In the background there are no great distinctions and, unlike past elections, once the lists were formed, the campaign for the internal election of the UDI this Saturday has been played with white gloves, since neither of the two applicants, Víctor Pérez and Javier Macaya, generates too much animosity, as its vice presidents do: the current helmsman Jacqueline van Rysselberghe and the deputy María José Hoffmann. But there is a transversal dividing factor: mistrust between one another after a period marked by the internal “cold war”, and with one of the most complex electoral years since the return of democracy. Added to this is the more concrete possibility, since the 1999 presidential elections, of finally managing to run La Moneda.
As happened in Argentina, once the current president Alberto Fernández presented his list and brought the great surprise that the ex-president Cristina Fernández was part of the formula, the union leader also opted for the same design, after being unable to to be reinstated for the second time, due to the new Law on Political Parties. Doubts in the dissent point to how much their presence may or may not influence and, as in the neighboring country, comments regarding what their real power will be are already running in some corridors, “always keeping the proportions – they explained – between a caudillo national, like Fernández, and a party leader. “
While on the official list they appeal to experience, from the dissidents they do so to a new way of doing politics, “more in tune with the 21st century”, and a change of image for what they accuse as a battered brand of the party before the citizenship.
Silva, the leader in the shadows
There are those who believe that this is the third opportunity in the sector that represents the interests of the former deputy Ernesto Silva, right-hand man of the mayor of Las Condes, Joaquín Lavín, and leader in the shadows of the dissident list, who, together with the so-called UDD team – which includes the analyst Gonzalo Müller and, further back, the chief adviser on the second floor of La Moneda, Cristián Larroulet -, they would seek to regain power within the unionism, which has eluded them for too long.
That search had already been directed with the former deputy Jaime Bellolio, on which occasion they were defeated by the current president, Jacqueline van Rysselberghe, with a resounding 62.4% of the votes in favor of the senator. And in the last brawl, which saw the new challenger Javier Macaya. On that occasion the difference was narrower, 51.57% in favor of the senator versus 48.53%, which ended up marking an internal breakdown, and put two sides on par during the last administration: on the one hand, a sector of the bench of deputies and, on the other, the directive.
In this way, tomorrow Saturday will be transformed into a struggle to impose certain forms of government, in the most complex political-electoral year for unionism, and where the real option is to be able to enter through the wide door of La Moneda, with two candidates who mark on the pole position, as are Joaquín Lavín and Evelyn Matthei.
But although the opposition is not giving the breadth in terms of alliances, the right also faces an ideological crisis in its sector, which has materialized in the vote for the withdrawal of 10% of the AFPs, when its own parliamentarians gave it a tremendous political defeat to the Executive.
One way out of this crisis is to contain the overflow on the right, considering the centrifugal force of the Republican Party of José Antonio Kast, and has been commanded by the current leadership. In this sense, deputy Macaya himself had pointed out in an interview with Third: “We cannot be fighting for that 22% who voted Rejection or be fighting only the hegemony of the toughest right with the Republican Party”.
Identity of the UDI
From the ruling party there are no problems of being labeled as the continuity list, since they indicate that they are sure that this is the thesis that involves the greatest number of adherents in the bases, and that the times that they have tried to position the UDI in a more liberal sector, as when they brought in the current government spokesman, Jaime Bellolio, “things did not turn out well.” In that election, all the heavyweights of the party mobilized to prevent its advance, since they understood that the identity of a community was at stake that has managed to be the largest in the country in representation.
In the dissent they argued that it is time to “fix” the UDI brand, which they consider would be on the ground before the public, and they accuse that it would be mainly due to the management of the current president of the store. In this sense, they explained that the loss of prestige would be such that “no serious economist” enters the headquarters located on Sweden Avenue, so as not to be “marked”. They accuse that appearing “always last” in the polls is too harmful, although they admit that being president of the UDI “never adds up.”
Unlike other occasions, the always influential former minister Andrés Chadwick – they assure from side to side – would not be playing an active role and this is mainly due to the affection he has for the two competitors: Javier Macaya, who is recognized as his political godson, and Víctor Pérez, with whom they have known since the dictatorship. In any case, from the management sector they pointed out that, although the affection and closeness for Macaya is real, Chadwick would also understand what is being played in the game: unity, experience and management at a time of key decisions .
Officialism wants to “unengage” the UDI
But beyond slogans and campaign phrases, the ruling party installed the idea that what is going to make the difference between one and the other is the ability to “unengage” a community that has walked through two different paths. From this sector, they stated that they have high degrees of mistrust regarding the unitary capacity that dissent has and the need for it in the most complex political-electoral period since the return to democracy. His argument is the attitude that would have been assumed from the dissidence during the last period, with parallel agendas and resolutions without consultation with the directive.
To that they added that, when they had the opportunity to demonstrate the above, in 2014, with Ernesto Silva at the helm, in the midst of the political debacle that the Penta case meant, “they were naive” and were not able to resolve the interests of the party placed on the table.
In this sense, and after being notified by the Servel that she could not repost for the second time, the senator for Biobío threw all the meat on the grill with a view to maintaining, and not handing over, power to a dissidence with the that there are degrees of mutual mistrust.
Unitary lists were sought, but they did not prosper, and when it was known who would head the other list and the name of the head of the bank María José Hoffmann appeared, from the current board of directors they took things more seriously, since being the parliamentarian Van Rysselberghe’s “black beast”, they had to avoid at all costs what they described not only as an eventual dismantling of the “advanced”, but also the possibility that a person in whom they do not trust their political capacities would take the match.
Since the dissent, the questions about the four-year management of the former mayor are not of low caliber, facing the “failure” of what would have been her offer in the last internal election, and that she was betting on greater degrees of influence and order within of the store. They also accuse her of a management that is too “individualistic” and of a more purely electoral vision than of ideas.
The Longueira factor
With the understanding that there was no way to relate to each other, the ruling party wasted no time and played everything for everything. After the appearance of Pablo Longueira, who was not exactly “a saint of their devotion”, and realizing that he had a real chance to compete, they lined up under the concept of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
In this way, and after Longueira himself asked former Interior Minister Víctor Pérez to succeed him on the list, he did not leave any loose ends, and the reason for the senator to be part as vice president would have two aspects. The first and most essential is the knowledge of the party register that she would have achieved after four years at the helm of the union. Added to that, the control of no lesser portion, as they assured, of the party machinery, the same that led her to win the presidency twice. In any case, the leadership of the current helmsman has worn out and there are no “coquistas” within the union.
The second aspect is related to the fact that its close nucleus was not going to endure a “black” exit and with overtones of defeat, so the negotiation, although it was not entirely calm, and with people who did not agree, ended with she being part of this new commitment to lead the store for two more years.
To this is added the work in the shadows of Pablo Longueira, who would have deployed in three key vote pockets for the party, and who previously were on the side of the dissident list. This is the O’Higgins Region, dominated by Javier Macaya, and that in the last measurement of forces swept; San Bernardo, the place where he spent a large part of his partisan life; and Viña del Mar, through the mayor Virginia Reginato, the same one who played for Macaya the previous time, but that –according to experts on electoral strategy– “if Pablo calls you”, it is something else. In those three spaces, some assured, the election for the ruling party would be played.
To this is added the former minister Claudio Alvarado, who occupied the seat of senator left by Víctor Pérez, since the former minister understood the need to have his own “Segpres” on his side.
The internal polls spoke that if the competition was between the deputy Hoffmann and Pablo Longueira, the first was two points above the former president of the party, but now that the lists are headed by Víctor Pérez and Javier Macaya, it would lean towards the former chief of Interior by at least five points, according to versions of its near circle.
In any case, and with the expectation that around 10,000 militants will vote, all are aware that, with the pandemic factor affecting the mobilization capacity, “the haulage pays double in this past.”
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