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Chile It would be one of the countries least hit by the pandemic in Latin America, according to the projection of the US center that advises the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
According to the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME), Chile would add for August 4 between 421 and 1,417 deaths from the pandemic.
The agency revealed this week its model for Latin America, the projections of which reach that date (August 4).
While, Brazil It will accumulate about 90,000 deaths from COVID-19 by August, according to the projection of the aforementioned body, which also anticipates by then deaths close to 6,000 in Mexico, Peru and Ecuador, and about 700 deceased in Argentina.
“This analysis shows in Latin America a fairly large expected epidemic in Brazil and then smaller but substantial epidemics in Mexico, Peru and Ecuador and a much smaller epidemic in Argentina,” IHME Director Christopher Murray told reporters on Wednesday.
Total, Nine Latin American countries with more than 50 deaths from the new coronavirus were studied.
According to the figures as of May 12, Brazil will be the most affected, with 88,305 deaths, in an estimated range between 30,302 and 193,786. On the other hand, Argentina will only add 680 deaths (414 to 1,420).
In comparison, Mexico will total 6,859 deaths from COVID-19 (3,578 to 16,795); Peru, 6,428 (2,731 to 21,724); and Ecuador, 5,215 (4,844 to 6,052). Colombia will add 2,157 (793 to 5,890).
Panama will be the least hit, with 661 deaths (362 to 1,345), as well as Chile, with 687 (421 to 1,417), and the Dominican Republic, with 881 (595 to 1,435).
The risk of the southern winter
The IHME model takes into account mobility (measured with cell phone applications), seasonality (temperature variations), per capita diagnostic tests and population density “As key drivers of transmission potential,” Murray explained.
The expert said he was aware of the difficulties of contemplating the sanitary and the economic aspects for decision-making, but pointed out that “from the point of view of public health, there is no sense in loosening social distancing measures when the peak of infections ”.
The IHME warned in a statement that in places where infections continue to occur and where evidence and contact tracing are insufficient, loosening social isolation could prolong the pandemic and lead to more deaths, in addition to increasing the risk of a second wave of contagions.
Murray said that for Brazil the peak of infections will be reached in late June and noted that the southern winter “will probably make things worse”.
“Unlike the northern hemisphere, where the seasonality of temperatures may be slightly decreasing transmission, the opposite will be true for the southern states of Brazil,” he said.
Need for more evidence in Mexico
The IHME clarified that the estimates for Brazil and Mexico arise from data from some states, so the national predictions are probably higher.
In Brazil, the highest number of accumulated deaths for August are expected in Sao Paulo, with 36,811 (11,097 to 81,774), and in Rio de Janeiro, with 21,073 (5,966 to 51,901). COVID-19 will cause at least 9,401 accumulated deaths in Pernambuco; 8,679 in Ceará; and 5,039 in Amazonas.
In Mexico, the highest number of deaths is expected in Mexico City, with 3,414 (1,396 to 9,671); and in Baja California, with 1,171 (675 to 2,566).
In both countries, Murray emphasized that more diagnostic tests should be done.
Testing in Mexico “is extremely low by world standards,” so there are likely to be “many, many cases” to record, he said.
In Brazil “it is not as low as Mexico but it is quite low,” he added.
In revealing its projections, the IHME said that “in the absence of concerted action to increase testing, particularly among states with the largest epidemics, COVID-19 trajectories could worsen for Mexico.”
ICU bed shortage in Peru
The IHME also projected the number of beds in Intensive Care Units (ICU) required to serve COVID-19 patients.
According to the model, the shortage in Peru may be one of the most acute: it is expected that during May, June and July, it will need more ICU beds than it has.
“As of May 12, estimates show a shortage of 944 ICU beds in Peru, with 1,032 needed and 88 available,” he said.
In Mexico there may also be a lack of hospital resources in many states.
“As of May 12, Mexico City is expected to need 499 ICU beds and have 192, while Baja California has a need for 271 ICU beds with only 32 available,” he said.
The IHME also anticipated a lack of ICU beds in Brazil, where the estimated need is 6,836, but 4,060 are available.
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