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The Minister of Health, Enrique Paris, showed this Monday a graph to compare the evolution of the pandemic in Chile with the European Union. The image and the Creole control system worry the experts: “If a few cases are not enough, a lot of cases even more will not be enough,” criticizes one of them.
Although the second wave is a reality in regions such as Magallanes, Los Lagos and La Araucanía, the figures of daily infections at the national level had remained stable, in a range higher than a thousand daily infections.
That, until recent weeks, when -according to the Minister of Health himself, Enrique Paris- a sustained rise has been reported, driven mainly by an increase in cases in the capital that forced their retreat as a whole to Phase 2 of Transition of the Step by Step plan.
This Monday, for example, the Metropolitan region exceeded the threshold of 500 infections in 24 hours for the first time since SeptemberWhile last Sunday the 2,000 were surpassed nationwide, a situation that keeps the authorities on alert.
Indeed, in the balance sheet from La Moneda yesterday, Minister Paris lamented the indicators, in an address that was accompanied by a graph showing the evolution of confirmed infections per million inhabitants daily.
“(The daily cases) had remained relatively stable, but currently present a sustained trend in the last two weeks, which still looks small in December,” snapped the health authority.
Along with this, he exhibited a second worksheet, which compared the evolution of the pandemic in Chile with the European Union.
“At some point we crossed the same figures in September and we remained at a relatively stable figure between 1,500 and 1,500 cases,” he added.
The worrying thing? The second wave is worse than the first and it could be replicated in our country.
The opinion of the specialists
The president of the Society for Microbiology, Claudia Saavedra, while acknowledging that “we actually have fewer cases than Europe at this time, per million inhabitants”, asserts that “we must consider that in Europe the levels decreased much more than we do. We have achieved”.
Indeed, as reported by this media at the beginning of September, countries such as Italy, Spain or Germany took around 70 days to control the first wave, while Chile to this day has not been able to achieve it (See 80 days before the peak, Chile still does not control the first wave: how long did other countries take?).
“They (EU) managed to reduce infections to very little, close to zero per day, while we have not achieved that,” explains the epidemiologist and member of the Center for Epidemiology and Health Policies, of the University of Development, Manuel Nájera.
In any case, the specialist warns that the comparison could be distorted by other factors that must be taken into account: although the first wave of the European Union is much lower than that of Chile, “the detection capacity was much lower than that of they have now ”.
“So,” he adds, “we don’t really know if they had the same number of cases or there were much more at the beginning”, considering that the testing in some countries was only carried out on those who came to the hospital, which generated an underreport.
Another aspect to consider is analyzed by the infectious disease specialist at the Barros Luco Hospital and an academic at the School of Medicine of the University of Santiago, Ignacio Silva.
“With the first peak or the first outbreak in Europe or the northern hemisphere, they were entering their warm seasons, so that favors meetings in open places, with good ventilation and that is favorable for the prevention of infection. They had a more favorable climatic situation, to have a lower contagion rate, ”Silva pointed out, making a difference with the first wave of Chile.
The high plateau after the first wave
But the graph of the Minister of Health, Enrique Paris, shows even more. Silva, for example, adds that “it is marked enough that in Chile was unable to significantly slow down the rate of infections and it remained in a permanent viral circulation endemic, which is like this plateau of cases ”.
What conclusion can be drawn about this? The specialist explains that “the geographical and climatic distribution in Chile is highly variable and each region has experienced different simultaneous or consecutive pandemics. So in winter they all concentrated (…) We now start with this new increase in cases with a higher baseline ”.
Along these lines, the president of the Society for Microbiology, Claudia Saavedra, says that it is much better to analyze the effective R, that is, the average number of infections that an infected person can produce.
As he points out, currently “16 regions have an effective R above 1”, which in his opinion “is a direct reflection of how infections have been accelerating.”
Management questions
However, the Chilean situation calls into question our control system, according to epidemiologist Manuel Nájera.
“Any exponential increase in cases that we can be faced with in these times, it seems that our control tools are not being enough. If a few cases are not enough, with many cases, even more so, they will not be enough “, critical.
This could also be explained – says the infectious disease specialist Ignacio Silva – “partly due to the climatic factor and mostly due to prevention policies. The focus that was put on a hospital-centric strategy with a low concentration of prevention efforts “.
“That is the great lesson that we must learn”, sentence.
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