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The coronavirus is expanding in the Metropolitan Region. During the last week, the speed of contagion increased in the country’s capital, after almost three months in which the virus was kept at bay.
To analyze the increase or decrease in the spread of the virus, the effective R0, which is the reproduction number, is used. This is understood as the number of people who on average are going to be infected by another who is suffering from the disease.
If this number is greater than 1, it means that the contagion curve is accelerating and that each person has the potential to infect at least one more. Meanwhile, if this value remains below 1, then the curve is on the decline.
According to slogan The Mercury, In Chile, the effective R0 fell from 1 in the Metropolitan Region for the first time on June 18 -according to data from the Ministry of Health- and remained so for almost three months.
In this regard, Minister of Health Enrique ParisHe said “there has been an increase, although it is still small, but maintained.” The head of the Minsal also recognizes that this rise is not only taking place in the RM, but also in the south, particularly in Magallanes.
“There are two changes that may have influenced this registered increase, without denying that it has really increased. One is the increase in testing, with up to 35 thousand tests per day, and the other is the active search for cases, because that means detecting infections that We did not know before. We detected up to 39% of asymptomatic patients, “explained the Secretary of State.
It is worth remembering that several communes in the Metropolitan Region are already in the transition stage of the Step by Step Plan. This means that there is quarantine only on weekends and holidays. As many other municipalities are already in phase 3. This is the case of Vitacura, Las Condes, Providencia, Ñuñoa, San José de Maipo, San Pedro, Pirque, Paine and Alhué.
Not only in the Metropolitan Region has there been an increase in infections. In fact, six other regions of the country are experiencing a similar scenario. They are O’Higgins, Maule, La Araucanía, Los Ríos, Los Lagos and Magallanes, the latter being the most complicated due to a violent regrowth.
Possible increase in National Holidays
The reasons for this increase are difficult to isolate. This is recognized by the expert engineer in data visualization, Ernesto Laval, who also explained to The Mercury that “it may be that there is a greater relaxation in people, in addition to the communes that are being released and the 18 that is already close, but it may also be that traceability is being less effective.”
He also says that this trend could continue due to the increase in mobility that will occur during National Holidays. “It is possible that the levels of contagion will increase, as happened in Magallanes, which was one of the regions that had the best indicators at some point.”
However, the minister stressed that “there is no reason to think that contagion will increase due to the National Holidays measures, because the measures for those dates are more restrictive than those currently in the areas in the different stages. amount of people who can get together “.
Meanwhile, the researcher at the Center for Applied Nanotechnology of U. Mayor, Rafael González said that “for six weeks the figures have stagnated, with an average of 1,800 cases per day nationwide, and many communes are showing an upward trend.”
He adds that “it is difficult now to ask the population to stay at home after such a long effort with quarantines, which is increasingly difficult.”
Punta Arenas in the Epidemiological Report
Meanwhile, the 49th Epidemiological Report released this morning by the Ministry of Health confirmed the delicate situation in the Magallanes Region.
The Punta Arenas commune adds 1,354 active cases, a figure that not only exceeds that reported in the previous report (1,026) but also doubles the 639 active cases in Puente Alto, the second commune on the list.
Punta Arenas is also the commune with the highest incidence rate (number of active cases per 100,000 inhabitants), even surpassing small towns.
At the regional level, those with the most active cases are the Metropolitan (5,965), Biobío (2,990) and Valparaíso (2,266). The others that exceed a thousand are Magallanes (1,452), O’Higgins (1,197) and Maule (1,152).
According to the report, in Chile until September 6 there have been 477,406 cases of COVID-19 (424,274 with laboratory confirmation and 53,132 probable, without laboratory confirmation), with a rate of 2,453.5 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Likewise, the highest accumulated incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants, according to laboratory-confirmed cases, are found in the Metropolitan Region (3809.6), the Tarapacá Region (3119.3) and the Arica and Parinacota Region (2920.9). the report.
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