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The School of Public Health of the University of Chile carried out a new study on the progress of the coronavirus in the country, which it estimates that could collapse the health system in the next two weeks, given the increasing degree of occupancy of the beds of the Intensive Care Units (ICU) of hospitals.
The study, which presents updated data as of May 10, achieves that “it is to be expected” that a significant rise will be seen in the number of coronavirus cases and in the use of ICU beds and that “a dynamic such as this would saturate the health system, probably from the next week or the next.”
Since the beginning of May, Chile began to count more than a thousand new cases of coronavirus per day, registering another record on Tuesday with 1,658 new infections in the last 24 hours.
In total, the number of infections in the country is to date 31,721, accounting for 335 deaths; while National occupation of intensive care beds (ICU) reaches 77%, while for the metropolitan region the figure rises to 87%.
The report projects a peak of infections for late May or early June and a peak of ICU bed use in the first week of June, as well as a significant increase in mortality since June.
Regarding the situation in regions, the report states that the ICU load is “uneven in the territory, with a high concentration in the Metropolitan Region, which will cause an availability problem in the regions that will be difficult to manage.”
Government: “At this rate we will need more fans”
The undersecretary of Assistance Networks, Arturo Zúñiga, indicated on Tuesday that an ICU bed occupancy of 77% at the national level and 87% in the Metropolitan Region, the most populous in the country and the one that houses to the capital.
“We had 1,200 ICU beds with ventilators in the beginning, today we are 1,900 and that requires each one of the establishments to do the maximum amount of reconversion of complex beds to be able to attend to this pandemic in a good way,” said Zúñiga.
“If we continue at this rate, we are going to need more ventilators and that is why we are delivering and we have already made purchases that will have their delivery in the coming days and will be distributed to hospitals,” he added.
That people take care of themselves, the only way to avoid collapse
In relation to the study, the head of the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Clinical Hospital of the University of Chile, Carlos Romero, said on Tuesday in an interview with Pauta radio that “the only way to really prevent the health system from collapsing is for people to take care of themselves and avoid social contact”.
Romero also referred to the authorities’ efforts to have the necessary equipment to treat the disease, which would not be sufficient because there is also a lack of personnel.
“As there are more cases, the quality of care will be less, therefore the chances of survival will be less. It is not about having a bed available, the ventilator available, but specialized human resources will be insufficient in a certain time, “he said.
Foreign Physicians Bill
The Minister of Health, Jaime Mañalich, took advantage of the daily balance of COVID-19 to highlight the discussion on Tuesday of a motion that would allow the Eunacom test to be suspended, which is a theoretical-practical examination of general medicine that is applied in Chile to revalidate or validate the medical degree obtained abroad to be able to practice in the country.
Also, the specialist certification exam would be suspended.
The suspension of the test would allow specialists who are in Chile “to help at this difficult time as demand for care,” said Mañalich.
“That is why we call on senators to quickly approve this bill that will allow for more qualified human resources,” added the minister.
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