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The coronavirus does not give truce. Despite the improvement in the number of infected and deceased people in recent weeks compared to the first months since the arrival of COVID-19 in the country, the spread of the virus in the Metropolitan Region is on the rise, reaching even levels in the middle of may.
The unconfined measures in the capital would have caused this situation. The greater mobility of people, social gatherings and a lower perception of risk of the virus, would explain the increase in infections.
Data from the ICOVID platform, reported by Third, point out that the speed of spread of the virus (effective R) grew to 1.15. This implies a decline to the same levels of contagion that existed in mid-May, when this indicator stood at 1.14. Remember that the R accounts for how many people each infected with coronavirus infects.
The highest level of the R was recorded at the end of April (1.7), while the lowest was in June (0.78).
Burden of disease
The burden of disease – or new cases per 100,000 inhabitants – is another indicator that has reached risk levels. On November 21, 4.60 cases were reported for every 100,000 inhabitants.
In this regard, the academic from the School of Public Health of the University of Chile, Mauricio Canals, warned that the increase in infections is modest, so “they do not reach a level to predict that there will be a major outbreak. However , for about three weeks there has been a certain relaxation in the customs of our population in the Metropolitan Region, which increases the risk “.
Channels explains Third that, for the pandemic to be controlled, the effective R must be below the threshold of 0.8. “The idea is to always be under that number. We must not lower our guard and I think this has already happened, as soon as the probability of arrival of the vaccine was known.”
Meanwhile, epidemiologist Catterina Ferreccio said that in the Metropolitan Region “we are at levels that are not desirable (…). We have to try to get to winter on a better footing than we already are, because at the moment, our The number of cases is much higher than the European countries had before suffering the second wave. “
Expert concern
Experts have expressed concern about the current scenario, especially considering that December is a month in which crowds and mobility increase due to Christmas shopping, situations that, in turn, could cause an increase in the spread of the virus.
The spokeswoman for the COVID-19 Advisory Council, Ximena Aguilera, said that the authority has already reported to the instance an increase in infections in the Metropolitan Region. “They told us that the cases have risen slightly, but that there has been no pressure on the beds,” he said, adding that “the increase in mobility is not free. There has already been more crowding of people and that slowly begins to increase. transmission of the virus “.
The experts remain alert to the opening of borders and, in that sense, Aguilera said that he asked the Ministry of Health for a report on the monitoring system for foreign tourists entering the country. “We are concerned about the situation of the borders and we are interested in reviewing the implemented system. That is why we have been asking (Minsal) to present us with an evaluation of how it has worked these days.
“The previous step for the entry of visitors is not guaranteed, which is to put together a system that provides reasonable assurance that infected foreigners will not arrive. A PCR taken up to 72 hours before can guarantee that they do not arrive ‘superinfectious’, but of In the same way there may be incubation, “added Ferreccio.
Claudio Castillo: “I do not know is completely cutting off the transmission of the virus”
The academic from the University of Santiago (Usach), Claudio Castillo, considered that it is important to improve traceability. “The transmission of the virus is not being completely cut off, in terms of identifying all the contacts of confirmed people. It is problematic to think that, on average, the index case reports only 2.8 close contacts at the national level and that in the Metropolitan Region is even lower than the average, reaching 2.5 “.
For Castillo, it is necessary that there is a thorough epidemiological investigation to identify close contacts that are not being declared and that could have been infected. “The average of Chilean families is more than three people per household. Therefore, identifying less than three people only identifies relatives and not, for example, work contacts,” he concluded.
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