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In January, Carlos Larraín had already shown his interest in returning to the front line of politics, with the aim of blocking the course that Renovación Nacional (RN) had begun with the management of Cristián Monckeberg’s party as president, and that Mario Desbordes later deepened, especially after the social outbreak of October. The pressure exerted at that time by the powerful ex-monel and his allies –among them, the then senator Andrés Allamand– was such that it gave the environment an alleged lack of support for the management of Desbordes, who placed his position at the disposal of the council general set for the end of that month, as the only formula to stop the onslaught that had been gestated against his presidency.
Desbordes was not only applauded in that general council, but was also ratified in his position, being reaffirmed and politically strengthened, by achieving the approval of the thesis of RN’s freedom of action before the plebiscite and not pigeonhole the community with the Reject option. That was the first internal defeat that Carlos Larraín suffered and the other was this weekend.
With the previous announcement that Larraín made of being available to return to the presidency of RN, with which he copied the media and headlines, the general council that the community held this Saturday, September 26, was inevitably a new opportunity to measure forces among the two “souls” of the party: those who understand that Renovación Nacional has followed a path that distances it from its identity as a right-wing political force, versus those who have supported the political line that Desbordes set to move forward looking towards the center. At the moment of the vote counting, a new victory for the “liberal wing” would finally realize that RN is no longer the same party that Larraín stopped presiding in 2014, and that he no longer has that almost absolute power of which enjoyed for years in the store.
Although the defeat was narrow, 48% of the councilors in favor of Larraín’s thesis of holding the internal elections in December and 52% for extending them, the final result – they affirmed in RN – confirmed the strength that the called “overflow” in the party structure. Quite a surprise for Larraín, who had insisted and bet that the party he had chaired for 8 years is 90% in favor of the Rejection option and, therefore, contrary to the political strategy set by Desbordes, today Defense Minister .
That is the first bad diagnosis of Carlos Larraín, they pointed out in RN. And it is that the return strategy consisted of taking advantage of the impulse prior to the plebiscite, to install in the background the ideological war in the community. Not for nothing, one of the first interviews with the expatriarch of the community when announcing her return, was to accuse that Desbordes had led the party “to the left.” The truth is that the thesis of the last two directives that liquefied the demands to apply to represent the party, goes beyond plebiscitary logic and today being part of the Rejection is not synonymous with being “anti-overflow.”
From 2014 to date, the renewal of the almost 500 general councilors has not exceeded 40%, a figure that led several in RN to believe that it would facilitate the way back to the former president. But the truth is that in these years several political logics have changed and the store has not been oblivious to that.
In 2016, the Policy Financing Law was enacted. Nobody in RN is unaware that Carlos Larraín was for years the great patron of the party, of many candidates for councilors, mayors and parliamentarians. Thus, those who received his permission had guaranteed quotas and resources for the campaigns, which in turn gave the expatriarch a lot of internal power, because it generated dependence on him.
Today things no longer work under that logic and although RN recognized that money continues to be a factor, Larraín’s power plots are clearly no longer the same as before, which would have been precisely reflected in the general council of this end of week. In any case, that does not mean that their logic is not present and several of those consulted admitted to having received in the last time the call of the former senator to “remind them” of the reasons why they had the possibility of reaching where they reached in their career politics, “but it no longer generates the fear it generated,” they acknowledged.
There are not a few who have questioned whether the sector represented by Carlos Larraín, rather than being the majority in the RN internship as they usually postulate, responded rather to the “large press” that it has always enjoyed, given its style irreverent politician and a speech that always, always brings out welts and comments. If his internal power were the same as before, this was – they stressed in the party – the best time for the ex-monel to impose himself internally, since Desbordes had to leave the presidency to go to the cabinet and Senator Manuel José Ossandón is confined in the media, convalescing after having had coronavirus twice and formalized for influence peddling.
The ultimate goal of Carlos Larraín’s attempt was to force the inmates in December to remain with the party leadership, in order to be able to intervene directly in the nomination of RN representatives in the municipal, council and constituent elections, to “Purify” the community, as their adversaries warned. But if the results are not contested – as it was warned that Senator Francisco Chahuán could act, in the newspaper The second-, Larraín’s great bet would have been forgotten, since the electoral times would no longer reach him.
Factors against
In RN they affirmed that there were other factors that also played against Larraín’s political plans. The political tone that she used on her return, the same one for which she was always characterized, with which she “ignored” everyone who was not on her side, effectively worked for her, as it was on the front page of newspapers and generated. But the truth is that internally, they explained in the community, the division that has been experienced is so marked, that for many, following in Larraín’s footsteps meant opting for a major break, which was considered “inconvenient for several of the directors” .
To this was added criticism for the “old” speech that the ex-monel used, which made it seem that his return pointed more to a personalistic impetus than to an institutional look. In addition, the support he gave to the candidate of the Republican Party, Gonzalo de la Carrera, as candidate for mayor of Las Condes did not go down well.
Finally, in RN they explained that above any political affection for Larraín, if their idea of carrying out the internships in December had triumphed, this would have brought internal consequences, because about half of the regional councilors had to leave their positions , without being able to repost, since they would have completed their two terms. Said Council would have been reduced by about 50%, by virtue of the logic of representativeness, since the community “went from 100,000 to 35,000 registered members”. In this context, facing an election period with inexperienced and diminished advice was not the best option.
For analyst Tomás Duval, what was at stake last Saturday was “a political-ideological position, with a view to a very deep electoral cycle that we have in view in the short term, that was the highest definition. RN could not tend to resemble the Chile Vamos parties more, but rather tend to differentiate itself and take a clear position on the matter ”. He added that “under the presidency of Desbordes there was a very clear political position of RN to dialogue and to listen to the citizens. I think that these two considerations were not very present, except for the dialogue in the 90s that was very important. I think that this axis is the one that RN cannot lose in the future, because there is a large part of its capital. “
Asked if that axis could have changed if the possibility of Carlos Larraín taking over the party had been given, he pointed out that “for the moment I think that yes, it could happen, a more conservative party could be put in place and that could be worrying for RN” .
Despite continuing with the reins of the party, in the National Renovation directive they acknowledged that they were left with a bitter aftertaste and uneasy about how the dissent is going to behave with 48% of the votes in their checking account.
A personer close to the leadership recalled the case of his peers from the UDI, who with a similar result in his last intern, beyond the words of good upbringing, finally the dissent, reflected in the bench of deputies, chose to make a sort of its own path, causing multiple headaches for the board of directors.
In that sense, there were two letters that were sent to the militancy, one from Senator Chahuán and another from those closest to Carlos Larraín and Andrés Allamand. The latter, in their letter, stated that “we will continue working hard to represent that half of the party that, despite adverse circumstances, has expressed its option to renew the leadership of the party.” On the part of the senator, the letter pointed out that “one half and the other are the total of the party, and no one today could claim the victory or declare himself the winner.”
Both statements were read internally as a warning “with a threatening tone” and that the president of the party, Senator Rafael Prohens, was left in a position of extreme discomfort. His “weak” intervention in the general council, which left “a taste of nothing”, and the neglect of which he has been a victim on the part of his detractors, has made several think that it would not be entirely a surprise if he did not finish his term.
What is at stake? In the last resolution of the aforementioned Council, although it was established that the elections were being extended, it was not entirely clear whether they will be held in December of next year, after the presidential elections, or in April, and that is one of the doors that were left open and through which the dissent is expected to insist to take a greater degree of control. The second bet is to get the position of first vice president, which is still vacant after Prohens assumed the leadership of the party in replacement of Desbordes, a position that seems like one more but is not, since it is who remains with the leadership of the community in case of any inconvenience of the helmsman in exercise.
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