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As is common in each election -at the time of the balance sheets-, finally “nobody lost” and the majority agreed that the complex structure of the primaries, the crossing of real powers and the small group of agreed communes, make it very difficult to project in the future an electoral behavior of the citizens based on the result of Sunday. But that does not mean that a deeper analysis must be carried out, especially on how they will have to stand in front of each other, in opposition, from here to the conformation of the lists of conventional constituents.
With your feet on the ground and off the record Within the parties and the pacts, several agree that there is no way to arrive at a single list with a view to the election of constituents, less now that from the Broad Front (FA) the gravitation of the sector has moved one step to the left and, on the contrary, in Constituent Unit one towards the center. From this last block, they regretted the “loss of influence” of the sectors that are more level with the agreements, such as the RD and Social Convergence –of Gabriel Boric–, they assured.
Beyond the will that has been expressed publicly and prior to the primaries, more were convinced of the impossibility of bringing together the entire opposition in a single list, this due to the high level of contrasts of the different political projects of one and the other side, but mainly due to the lack of a common perspective on how the country has to advance and what is the project they are betting on. In this framework, the latent risk of arriving with a greater number of lists than the ruling party, projects an unfavorable mathematical result, since the current electoral system rewards the large conglomerates and punishes the small ones, so maintaining 78% of the approval would be an uphill task.
“Being a number of minimum quotas for constituents, in this case the unit excludes you,” they pointed out from the Constituent Unit block. It is that nobody has the real will to be out of competition.
Less than a week before the primaries, the debate on alliance policies returned to the internal partisan and pacts. Due to the number of voters who participated in the primaries of both sectors of the opposition, the Constituent Unit is the one that took the lead, and they express it by pointing out that, when talking about proportional negotiations, it would have been established that the scale is one to four in his favor.
From sectors of the Broad Front, the interpretation of the result points to the impossibility of competing with the “electoral machinery of the former New Majority”, and they warn that the results should be measured with respect to the “lifetime of the coalitions and based on the triumphs in the most symbolic competitions ”.
While in the Constituent Unit it was the Christian Democracy that prevailed, running the axis towards the center, in the Broad Front it was Comunes, moving it to the left. In this way, the theory of the two poles of the sector is sealed, which for several became a relief, since they believe that the level of tension should lower, since now there would be a greater degree of autonomy to define positions in the different national debate topics.
The goal, they add, is still the presidential one, and the possibility of arriving with a single candidate for the second round, because the “mirage” of the single list, considering the election of constituents, “never ceased to be utopia,” they point out.
In this sense, the analyst Víctor Maldonado, from the DC, specified that “two poles are created, two ways of understanding the opposition, which will have to dialogue to, finally, support one or the other, depending on who gathers more popular support . That is determined by how the proportions are distributed, which in this case would be one to four in favor of the Constituent Unit. “
From the Christian Democrats they point out that it is no longer possible to work without them in that bloc, and RD is no longer the interlocutor in the FA.
From that there are two interpretations. On the one hand, from outside the PS they accuse the discomfort of this ideological adjustment in the bloc, as it would generate a greater disengagement between the party leadership and its bases. This, based on the discomfort that the party has experienced for a long time, mainly with respect to the impossibility of distancing itself from the DC due to the behavior it had on several of the crucial issues of parliamentary discussion and which ended up fracturing on several occasions. to the opposition itself. Examples of this are the tax reform or the pension reform, among others.
On the other hand, officials who know about the daily work of the socialist leadership point to the glass half full, which would mainly mean that the PS could now have a significant partner “capable of doing the dirty work”, that is, the to separate waters with the PC, thought in a presidential primary. Faced with the increasingly real possibility of not arriving with their own candidate, it would make things easier for them, thinking about a greater feasibility of bowing to a candidate within the pact, in this case, and for now, Heraldo Muñoz or Francisco Vidal.
From Comunes, its president, Jorge Ramírez, points out that there is a very clear political dimension regarding the border that citizens expect from each of the coalitions. In one way or another, the victory of the DC is a complex situation for the most progressive sectors that are in the Constituent Unit and probably their rank and file militancy sees them much closer to the FA than to the DC.
Back in the field of winners and losers, there are those outside the microphone, from the Constituent Unit sector, even dare to say that “the FA’s fashion brand” is over, while others hinted at the end of the thesis of the replacement, which suggested that the new political project of the Broad Front would conquer the disappointed members of the former Concertación. “That is over,” they sentenced from the PPD.
In response to that, from the amplism front they first call to stop analyzing everything under the binomial logic, and accuse a “terrible error” of reading in the vision of the PPD. They remember that for the last presidential elections they had been ignored in the same way and that, at the time of the “great definitions”, the electorate that they had accused that it did not exist tripled.
Electoral analyst Axel Callís pointed out that “so few people voted that there is no possibility of projecting any results for April 11. In this context, all the conclusions that can be drawn, within an area within the pacts, are weak ”.
To that he added that “all the parties are weakened, because they were not even able to mobilize their hard assets. This is a setback with respect to any primary and the least participatory one, which was in 2016, because where there were primaries, almost 5% of the electorate moved and here it was not 3% ”.
Respects towards independents
After the result of the plebiscite of October 25, mainly the fact that the Constitutional Convention has obtained even more votes than the Approval, for everyone in the world of politics it was the last great sign that citizens are looking for another type of representation, different to which the matches were being delivered. In this sense, it was understood that the meaning of that vote had a unique purpose: that the independent world write the new Magna Carta.
This, however, has become a major headache, mainly because it means giving up space. And although there have been several collectivities that have opened up to integrate people from the independent world, and from different social organizations, there are various resentments that collide with what would be the will of the citizen.
And it is that, since it is not a speech in line with the ambient temperature, that the independents take the wording of the new Constitution opens a great crossroads: to whom they will respond, which would carry with it the risk of handing over spaces without guarantees of a vision complementary.
“Independents are not groups, they are denominations of diverse people, there is no reason to understand that some independents interpret others. And they are going to fragment, which is happening ”, they indicate in the Constituent Unit pact. “The grace of politics is that you have a habit of reaching agreements between people who naturally disagree. The independents do not have that habit, nothing brings them together, that is the downfall “, they warn.
In this light, the debate in Congress on independents has not fulfilled – according to various sectors – with the required times, considering that January 11 is the deadline for the registration of candidates.
This Thursday the project will continue its processing in the Senate Chamber, and then return to the Chamber, where there has been greater consensus regarding the demand for sponsorships for individuals and also for lists, as well as the unique key not to have to get sponsorships in the field amid the pandemic.
The difficult debate that must be settled and about which the independent world is very alert, has to do with the sub-pacts. Initiative entered by the Broad Front, but which in the Chamber was rejected even with votes from the opposition. In this case, the discussion that took place within the parties is that, as they are unable to subcontract between the stores that are part of a larger pact, they consider that it would not be fair if the independents could do so.
For Callís, “35% of those elected in the Constituent Unit are independent with their own prestige. Five of the 16 winners are independent and, therefore, give votes to the constituent unity parties. In this context, the DC appears as the least weak, not as the strongest, ”says the analyst.
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